The invention of the KWHIP INDEX

Man its hard to believe I hadn't the courage to post anything since Sept22.  So much has changed.  I will miss #11 terribly but I understand it was time.  Same with Byrd.  The hot stove was strife with talk of a Cole Hamels trade and it got me to start thinking about pitching statistics and how one might measure the effectiveness of a pitcher.

If you've talked pitching with me in the past you know I favor 2 stats:  WHIP and K/9.  WHIP because it is the counter to OBP and K/9 because it eludes to a pitchers "Stuff" and his ability to get out of trouble without involving the fielders.  Pretty big when you have a runner on third with less than two outs.

So I invented a new stat which I am going to call the KWHIP Index.  Very simply you take the k/9 and divide it by the WHIP.  The higher the number the more impressive the pitcher.  Here are some examples both current day measured against historical

Let's start with the Lefties:

Hamels has a KWHIP Index of 7.44 and Cliff Lee 6.35

Kershaw is 8.88
Bumgarner is 7.49
Price is 7.44
Lester is 6.43

Koufax was a 8.41

Notable Right Handers

Kyle Kendrick was 3.58 with the Phillies and our current #5 Buchanan is a 4.33

Scherzer is 7.88
Verlander is 7.41
Pedro was an astounding 9.49 that is HOF work right there.
2 Young guys with SSS and TJ injuries Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez have 10.05 and 10.60
Clemons finished a long career with 7.33 and Nolan Ryan finished an even longer career with a 7.62

Relievers can have some insane indexes for instance Kimbrel currently sits at 16.39 and Aroldis Chapman is at 15.58

Our own relievers are doing quite well.  Giles sits at 15.99 (SSS) and Papelbon 10.08.

The all time saves leaders Hoffman and Rivera finished their careers with a 8.88 and 8.2 respectively.

So what's the point you say after all Greg Maddux and Bob Gibson were both HOF and had very low indexes 5.34 and 6.06.  I think the stat can have value in the minors scouting departments an area where you don't get to see a guy pitch but you can look up his numbers.

My aim is to apply this index to a number of pitchers in our system and see how that translates professionally.  So here it goes.  Here is what the KWHIP index says about some of our young talent in the system.  The caveat is I didn't do it for every pitcher:

PLAYER	KWHIP INDEX	LEVEL	IP	TEAM
Hamels	12.71	Minors	218	Phillies
Leibrandt	10.17	Minors	60.2	Phillies
Lively	9.93	Minors	192	Phillies
Imhof	7.05	Minors	42.1	Phillies
Biddle	7.01	Minors	552	Phillies
Arano	6.89	Minors	135.1	Phillies
Nola	6.85	Minors	55.1	Phillies
Mecias	6.66	Minors	149.2	Phillies
Gonzalez Severino	6.18	Minors	397.2	Phillies
Anderson Drew	6.01	Minors	148.2	Phillies
Windle	5.62	Minors	193	Phillies
Garcia Elniery	5.56	Minors	91	Phillies
Eflin	5.12	Minors	253.2	Phillies
Kilome	4.81	Minors	40.1	Phillies
Buchanan	4.33	Minors	518	Phillies
Kendrick	4.31	Minors	687	Phillies
Gueller	2.94	Minors	149	Phillies
Oliver	1.88	Minors	17.2	Phillies

Sample size is everything so we'll have to wait and see what Leibrandt and Imhof look like after 150+ IP.  I'm really excited by how Lively looks on this chart and not so much by Eflin or Windle.

We'll review this throughout the season and update at the end!

What Next?

The Phillies currently sit with the 8th worst record in the MLB so a protected pick should be in order for June 2015 to stack on top of Crawford and Nola, both of which appear to be on track for a 2016 debut.

The Phillies aging line-up only managed a 28th ranked OPS and no Phillie appeared in the top 50 in OPS that is clearly problem number one.  When you look at the teams going to playoffs this is one offensive stat that clearly ties to wins and can sometimes offset good but not great starting pitching.  Problem is nothing in FA falls within clear cut upgrades.  The flip side is there are some potential upgrades but those come with some age or injury history.  You could look to 2015 and say Ruf/Howard Platoon at 1B and sign a Morse or Cuddyer to platoon with Brown in LF.  You could say they would be best served to platoon right field as well.  It appeared to be Byrd at 36 wore down fast.  A Byrd/Brown platoon would be something to consider at the risk of some pretty bad defense from Brown.

One might consider Melky Cabrera or Nelson Cruz for high AAV 3 year deals.  The trade market would be tough to navigate because we have no depth any where in the system.  I just don't believe you can get enough of a return for Hamels.  Prospects being the risk that they are and at the same time the commodity that they are seems an unlikely scenario.  In my mind you would need to be pretty certain you return a Hamels and an Utley that are no more than a year from being ready to play in the majors plus some.

The more resolute option might be on FA pitching.  Scherzer and Lester will command big dollars.  Lester will be attractive because he will come without compensation.  You could play in the James Shields and Ervin Santana space or Liriano and Kazmir tiers.  Even Jason Hammel or Brandon McCarthy would be upgrades.  The Phillies ranked 20th in WHIP and any of those guys would likely help them improve on that stat when combined with the emergence of guys like Diekman and Giles in the BP.

Creativity and maybe some unlikely trade partners might pave the way to a WC in 2015.  In summation they need to hunt OPS in the corners and possibly in CF while they wait for Franco, Crawford and Nola.  A little luck with Biddle wouldn't hurt or maybe a surprise from the farm by way of a Kelly Dugan or Cam Perkins.

I would like to see them move Rollins and Howard this off season as the genesis to a true rebuild.

The September Call Ups

What should they be?  For starters Maikel Franco should come up and play predominately at 1B simply for the experience and not because I think Asche is a better 3B.  Asche needs to stay in the line-up and take just about every AB he can between now and the end of the season.

Galvis and Hernandez-No sense in running Rollins and Utley out there every night and not that Freddy and Cesar are the future but getting regular big league time may catch the attention of other clubs thus effectively increasing their trade value.

BP Arms:  MAGS, Biddle (if Healthy), Garcia, Horst and Colton Murray.  The BP has to be weary at this point and again I see no sense in running up the innings on guys like Giles and Deikman who are the future 8/9 guys.  Biddle has racked up over 552 IP over 5 MiLB seasons and in my opinion that it is more than enough for a 1st round pick out of HS.  Obviously if the Phillies were in a race you don't do that.  I get that performance doesn't merit the call up but its not about that, its about seeing how he handles himself, seeing if being around guys like Hamels and Burnett can get something to click for him.

Dugan-Kelly was the Phillies first pick of the 2009 draft in the second round.  Since becoming a Phillie he has been mired with injuries but he has compiled over 1700 PA's and is a career .298/.368/.819 hitter. There is not much else he can do in the minors and with 2 back to back solid performances in AA there is nothing wrong with bringing him up and letting him play everyday.

When you are a team as bad as the Phillies are the fans would rather show up to watch younger players especially if they can come up and have some success and add a little more excitement.

We're 11 days away from Sept 1 so let's see what they do!

Trade Deadline News

There is none....

4 Days to go!

The trade deadline is this Thursday.  The Phillies are 46-59, last in the NL East and 12.5 Games back of the Nationals so I guess the good news is they will be on track to get another high value draft pick.  The only bright spots on the big club right now seem to be Cole Hamels and Ken Giles.

On the farm you can point to Crawford.  In his first full season of pro ball J.P skipped Williamsport started the year in Lakewood and advanced to Hi A Clearwater and is more than holding is own.  Nola the 7th pick in this years draft out of LSU has flashed a bit of the potential that allowed him to dominate in the SEC.  Outside of that Jesse Biddle took a huge leap backwards and Franco while good of late struggled mightily to start the season in AAA.  Not a big deal since he is still very young for the league.

If its better to be lucky than good this club is in major need of a rabbits foot and about a half dozen four leaf clovers.  Cliff was supposed to be the one chip in my opinion they could deal at the deadline for a possible blue chip prospect or young player with years of control.  A player to possibly form the nucleus of a new core of young players to get us back into the playoffs.  An elbow injury in May derailed that plan.  Cliff's two starts since coming off the DL have been less than Cliff like.

Let's see what happens with Papelbon, Byrd and dare I say Utley.  Rumors continue to swirl that the Giants might be interested and Chase interested in them if you want to make the leap that he does maintain an off season home in the area.  Why the Giants went fro Uggla is beyond me.  He maybe worse than Howard in terms of drop off in performance, minus the contract of course.

The bigger shame might be that Brown and Asche failed to dominate this year.  This team has made plenty of opportunity for a young player to come up and make a statement and it just hasn't happened.

The clock is ticking and it may have to run into over time meaning the waiver period come August.  Easily Lee would clear waivers and so would Papelbon.  Jimmy might also, Ruiz might but Howard will not.

Finally one must always consider a team blowing the Phillies away for a guy like Cole Hamels.  Not an easy road ahead for the front office.

June 2014 Top 20 Prospects

J.P Crawford
Aaron Nola
Maikel Franco
Ken Giles
Jesse Biddle
Roman Quinn
Cam Perkins
Kelly Dugan
Aaron Altherr
Dylan Cozens
Zach Green
Matt Imhof
Severino Gonzalez
Cameron Rupp
Andrew Pullin
Cord Sandberg
Aaron Brown
Luis Encarnacion
Shane Watson
Carlos Tocci

Just Missed: Knapp, Grullen,Hiciano

June 17th

The Phillies are in last place in the division 5.5 Back of the Bravo's.  An exciting 13 inning win last night may give one enough pause to not write this season off.

I don't write it off or at least I don't want to write it off but unlike the Dodgers of last year we have no Puig to call on to shock our offensive system.  Sad really because the pitching has kind of held up.  Cole is throwing very well and so is Burnett.  One might try to imagine a scenario where Lee comes back fully healthy and again allows this offense to stay in more games than they should.

The bullpen has stabilized nicely with Diekman and the call up of Ken Giles and his 100 MPH cheese cannon.  Papelbon has evolved his stuff to close out games with 91-92 and a good Change-Up.

So why are the Phillies last in the division?  Well they are 12th in the NL in OPS for starters and really bad OPS wise in CF, LF and 3B.  The glass half full would say their second halves cannot be as bad as their first half and maybe that could vault them back in the race.

But time is looming like a big dark cloud.  We just had the 7th pick in the draft and used that pick on Aaron Nola. A kid everyone says is polished enough to be in the rotation as early as late this season. We used subsequent picks on a high percentage of younger college players.  Those tea leaves say the front office is poised to turn over the roster wherever they have an opportunity.  Last years 1st round pick J.P. Crawford is progressing nicely and on track to be the everyday SS at some point in 2016.

The current regime's track record for bringing back players is not good.  We have nothing to show for the trade of Cliff Lee to Seattle, nothing to show for the trade of Pence to the Giants and that hurts considering what we gave up to get Hunter.  Loosely you might say Ethan Martin has a chance to contribute as a result of the Victorino deal but that's zilch for the caliber of players those guys were when dealt.

Now if you are considering trading the franchises best SS and best 2B of all time you better not miss on either.  Neither player commands a haul of prospects but each should land a single solid prospect from the acquiring club or you simply hold onto them.  No one in the farm is ready this year or next to be the everyday player.  You make those moves and you get Brignac or Cedeno at SS and Cesar Hernandez at second for the rest of the season.

The list of pieces or assets is a nice one for the acquiring clubs out there: Burnett, Byrd, Papelbon, Chooch possibly.  Those names will help contenders but you have to question who would give up what for any of those guys.  Your scouts really have to dig deep into the leagues farms to come up with a gem or two.

Finally there will be the elephant in the room.  What do you do with Cole Hamels the best pitcher you have ever developed out of your system from draft to WS MVP (IMO).  He surely would return a significant package.  Not an easy decision because it is very difficult to build a world champion caliber starting rotation and Hamels clearly is the type of pitcher that can be highly effective for many years to come at 30 years of age.  You better get quality and quantity if you do.