Maikel Franco 3B/1B
J.P. Crawford SS
Jesse Biddle LHP
Kelly Dugan OF
Roman Quinn SS/CF
Ken Giles RP
Cam Perkins OF
Dylen Cozens OF
Zach Green 3B
Cam Rupp C
Tyler Viza SP
Severino Gonzalez SP
Aaron Altherr CF
Carlos Tocci CF
Luis Encarnacion OF
Andrew Pullin 2B
Shane Watson SP
Austin Wright SP/RP
Andrew Knapp C/1B
Tommy Joseph C
Just missed: Adam Morgan, Cord Sandberg, Tyson Gillies and Tyler Buckley
Knocking on the door: Venn Biter CF, Drew Anderson SP and Deivi Grullen C
By June I'm sure this will be null and void.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year
Not much under the tree for Phillies fans. Ruiz is back and Roberto Hernandez the right handed version of a soft tossing lefty was added for depth to the starting rotation. Byrd is the proverbial aging right handed hitting left fielder al beit a good one.
The Tanaka Saga has more clarity and I expect the Phillies to make a strong play for his services state side but my enthusiasm is tempered with the new Japanese posting rules. Now more teams enter the equation creating more of a Free Agent type of scenario, the most any team can bid is $20M so expect quite a few teams to ante up that amount to talk to him. I predict he will sign for a Greinke type contract 6/$145 possibly less but Tanaka has leverage in this new system. More money will go to the player for sure. Couple that with the fact that most Japanese players if given the choice are more comfortable on the west coast.
More interesting is how this is effecting the other FA pitchers on the Market and most notably Garza. Garza has 0 compensation attached but also concerns about the elbow. Santana and Jimenez are most likely seeing limited interest because of compensation. Again teams drafting just outside the top 10 would be very reluctant to sign either player and all other teams would still have concerns for either losing 2nd round pool money or the pick all together. We saw this with Kyle Lohse last season.
If the Phillies lose out on the Tanaka sweepstakes I don't expect them to be in play for Garza with the elbow issues or any of the other starters for that matter. While they might not say it publicly I believe they are in an under the radar re-building plan. I know that seems counter intuitive to the hard moves we are seeing them make but players like Chooch, Byrd, Utley, Rollins, Lee or Hamels and even Howard can all be moved at the deadline to restock the system with young talent.
On paper next to the Nationals they don't have the starting rotation to compete depth wise with the Nats or the Dodgers for the NL pennant and the Cardinals arguably are right there as well with their pitching staff.
Now more often than not the best teams on paper don't always finish the race but if you're sizing up your club and it is aging and expensive the way to go is to move top tier assets for young stars and have their arrival coincide with an opportunity to add a few veteran stars via Free Agency. A great deal of luck is involved but I've always believed luck is a result of preparedness meeting opportunity.
The Tanaka Saga has more clarity and I expect the Phillies to make a strong play for his services state side but my enthusiasm is tempered with the new Japanese posting rules. Now more teams enter the equation creating more of a Free Agent type of scenario, the most any team can bid is $20M so expect quite a few teams to ante up that amount to talk to him. I predict he will sign for a Greinke type contract 6/$145 possibly less but Tanaka has leverage in this new system. More money will go to the player for sure. Couple that with the fact that most Japanese players if given the choice are more comfortable on the west coast.
More interesting is how this is effecting the other FA pitchers on the Market and most notably Garza. Garza has 0 compensation attached but also concerns about the elbow. Santana and Jimenez are most likely seeing limited interest because of compensation. Again teams drafting just outside the top 10 would be very reluctant to sign either player and all other teams would still have concerns for either losing 2nd round pool money or the pick all together. We saw this with Kyle Lohse last season.
If the Phillies lose out on the Tanaka sweepstakes I don't expect them to be in play for Garza with the elbow issues or any of the other starters for that matter. While they might not say it publicly I believe they are in an under the radar re-building plan. I know that seems counter intuitive to the hard moves we are seeing them make but players like Chooch, Byrd, Utley, Rollins, Lee or Hamels and even Howard can all be moved at the deadline to restock the system with young talent.
On paper next to the Nationals they don't have the starting rotation to compete depth wise with the Nats or the Dodgers for the NL pennant and the Cardinals arguably are right there as well with their pitching staff.
Now more often than not the best teams on paper don't always finish the race but if you're sizing up your club and it is aging and expensive the way to go is to move top tier assets for young stars and have their arrival coincide with an opportunity to add a few veteran stars via Free Agency. A great deal of luck is involved but I've always believed luck is a result of preparedness meeting opportunity.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Free Agent Pitchers
Let's start the conversation with Japanese phenom Tanaka. Again no compensation is tied to Tanaka so that means teams at risk of losing a 1st round pick for signing one of the lesser names will be all in on this guy and who ever comes out the winner will likely be out on some of these other names.
Garza-The prize of the off season because there is no compensation tied to him. Garza will be the litmus test for how much money is flooding into baseball. Why? Because there are definite red flags about the elbow and none about his competiveness. When he is right he is all day long a 5/$100. The Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Rangers will all be in the mix for his services.
Nolasco-Look for the Mets to make a major move to land his services with Matt Harvey being gone they need a guy that eats up innings and is close to being a front line starter at least something of a solid #3. Their pick is protected so they can afford to into the Anabel Sanchez area for Nolasco. 4/$72 seems right to me with an option to take it up to $90.
Santana-Is not a 5/$100 despite what he or his camp thinks. Honestly they don't really think that its classic negotiating tact to publicly put out an outrageous number. Look for the Mets to jump in here is they don't land their first choice which is Nolasco.It still will be obscene I'm thinking 4/$64.
Ubaldo-Not very interesting although once upon a time in Colorado he was. A return to the Rocky Mountains is not out of the question. I think teams will be reluctant to go more than 3/$42 and that might be tough to come by with compensation needed to be given up. Look at teams with a protected pick as possible options.
Rodney-Fernando should call the cops because the Rays picked his pocket big time for the last two years. No such luck this year he gets a big raise from Texas. 3/$27
Joe Nathan-Everyone says Tigers but I think the Tigers are looking for a guy they can give multi years to so that the position is sure for the next few years. I actually think Nathan lands with the Yankees on a 1/$9 with a vesting option that would take it up to $18.
Grant Balfour-How about the Tigers on a 2/$15
AJ Burnett-He's picky about where he wants to be. The Pirates say publicly they want him back but I don't believe they do. Definition of mercurial is this guy. I won't believe he retires until I see it. So while I have no idea where he will play I do see him playing on a 1/$15 deal.
Kuroda-I see no reason why he would leave NY. Possible the Dodgers bring him back but he gets a multi year deal this time 3/$51
Tim Timmy Hudson-This guy loves Atlanta, is 38 and coming off a severe ankle injury. I say he stays with Atlanta on a 1 Year Incentive laden deal 1/$8.
Garza-The prize of the off season because there is no compensation tied to him. Garza will be the litmus test for how much money is flooding into baseball. Why? Because there are definite red flags about the elbow and none about his competiveness. When he is right he is all day long a 5/$100. The Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Rangers will all be in the mix for his services.
Nolasco-Look for the Mets to make a major move to land his services with Matt Harvey being gone they need a guy that eats up innings and is close to being a front line starter at least something of a solid #3. Their pick is protected so they can afford to into the Anabel Sanchez area for Nolasco. 4/$72 seems right to me with an option to take it up to $90.
Santana-Is not a 5/$100 despite what he or his camp thinks. Honestly they don't really think that its classic negotiating tact to publicly put out an outrageous number. Look for the Mets to jump in here is they don't land their first choice which is Nolasco.It still will be obscene I'm thinking 4/$64.
Ubaldo-Not very interesting although once upon a time in Colorado he was. A return to the Rocky Mountains is not out of the question. I think teams will be reluctant to go more than 3/$42 and that might be tough to come by with compensation needed to be given up. Look at teams with a protected pick as possible options.
Rodney-Fernando should call the cops because the Rays picked his pocket big time for the last two years. No such luck this year he gets a big raise from Texas. 3/$27
Joe Nathan-Everyone says Tigers but I think the Tigers are looking for a guy they can give multi years to so that the position is sure for the next few years. I actually think Nathan lands with the Yankees on a 1/$9 with a vesting option that would take it up to $18.
Grant Balfour-How about the Tigers on a 2/$15
AJ Burnett-He's picky about where he wants to be. The Pirates say publicly they want him back but I don't believe they do. Definition of mercurial is this guy. I won't believe he retires until I see it. So while I have no idea where he will play I do see him playing on a 1/$15 deal.
Kuroda-I see no reason why he would leave NY. Possible the Dodgers bring him back but he gets a multi year deal this time 3/$51
Tim Timmy Hudson-This guy loves Atlanta, is 38 and coming off a severe ankle injury. I say he stays with Atlanta on a 1 Year Incentive laden deal 1/$8.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
GM Meetings Begin
The GM meetings begin tonight so let's take the opportunity to speculate the FA market from the top down Position players:
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Position By Position
(C) Ruiz-Solid Resign him you have no better options in the system and he is more valuable in staff ERA anyway. Kratz-Nice guy hard worker but I think its time to upgrade there. Ideally a left handed hitting catcher but if not Rupp will do.
Free Agent: Brian McCann offensively is an upgrade over Ruiz but again I pass. He is oft hurt, will cost more than he is worth and came up pretty small in the playoffs.
(1B)-I would simply platoon Howard/Ruf while exploring every opportunity to move Howard. Franco is on the way and my opinion is much like they moved Albert Pujols to 1B that's what they will do with Franco unless someone bowls them over with an offer for Asche.
(2B) Chase it is most nights with Cesar and Galvis as able back-ups. Down the road it might be Roman Quinn.
(3B) Asche for sure but Franco is waiting in the wings if someone of significance becomes available via trade. Essentially that is why you always take the best player available regardless of position. If Asche can land you an exciting right handed hitter that plays OF at a high level you would have to consider making that move but do it with caution. Asche is the type of kid that Ryne Sanberg was, that Utley was meaning the make-up might far exceed the talent.
(SS) Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy. You should have accepted a trade and at some point you might. Not because I don't like you, I happen to believe you are the best SS in franchise history. You make a move because you are such a polarizing figure in this town and because you could win another championship. It won't happen here for you.
JP Crawford is the future its just a matter of when. Is he Manny Machado where he could be up when he is 20? Roman Quinn is destined to move at this point and not because he has been horrible defensively at SS (he has) but because JP was the 16th pick in the draft. Galvis is a capable back-up but lacks the offensive prowess to be an everyday SS unless you surround him with multiple MVP type bats.
(LF) He is not on this team. It's not Ruf and Brown should be in RF. Find plug and play a dynamic right handed bat. They don't grow on trees but that is what scouts get paid to do and why GM's get big bucks to play fantasy with OPM.
(CF) Plenty of options here with Revere being the most obvious. I like Benny but again not a dynamic player because of his lack of power. When I think of CF I think of Tori Hunter in his Twins days, I think Adam Jones, I think McCutchen heck even Victorino. Cesar was decent in the field and I think he potentially develops some pop. I like that he hits from both sides of the plate and maybe you get away with him there if you have 25-30 HRS on both sides of him.
(RF) No question for me it should be Dom Brown. No Dom is never going to be an MVP he lacks the grit and swagger it takes to bring home that award but he is capable. He has power, he has a hit tool, he sees a lot of pitches and will take his walks. Average defensively yes but a plus arm.
(SP) Hamels/Lee is really all we have. Gonzalez is an unknown and Kendrick/Pettibone just aren't playoff caliber pitchers (see Tigers pitching staff) pitching is everything to win WS titles. Maybe Jesse Biddle becomes something near Lee and they should be looking to call him up in June 14 and get the development started.
Free Agents: Matt Garza should be a priority but health is a concern. If they are going to make a run at him they must make sure he is physically sound.
(BP) Papelbon is ok, Adams if healthy is ok, Diekman is ++. Ken Giles is a strong possibility with his 95+ MPH right arm but here is another guy that needs to throw strikes. Martin may flourish in a late inning role also so I see no need to expend any assets there in the off season.
(Bench) Frandsen,Galvis, Hernandez should all be automatic. Mayberry as well. I'll pass on Bernadina and look for a LH bat with more power.
For 2014 the team is an ace short of being in playoff consideration at least so I would exercise patience this off season and plan to acquire young talent. Possibly take advantage of teams needing to move salary. With another top flight draft pick in June contention is a few years away.
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Knock Knock
House Keeping...that's who is there!
Dubee the first shoe to drop. 9 Seasons is a long time and there is some thing to be said for a fresh voice. Change for the sake of change isn't always good but if they can bring in a quality guy with no preconceived notions about who these pitchers are it might be a step forward.
The Phillies finished even better than I had thought 73-89 and it looks like that will be good enough for the 7th overall pick in the draft. Obviously you can get a pretty good player there but also we can sign a Free Agent that received a qualifying offer without forfeiting our own draft pick.
The free agent class isn't much to get overly excited about. Sure there are some pieces out there that would help a team right on the edge of a championship but added to this roster at this time probably doesn't make sense.
If Pence got 5/$90 what do you thing guys like Choo and Ellsbury will command? Actually that is quite a steal for the Giants. Pence finished 13th in OPS among all OF last season and his career numbers suggest you can consistently count on him for 20-25 HR's and near 100 RBI. He's just a good player and a good kid.
Here is a name for you. How about Marlon Byrd finished 8th among all OF in OPS last season...8th and he hits from the right side.
Anyway back to the FA class. The Phillies are short in the rotation on paper unless Gonzalez turns out to be something special. You may consider adding Garza but word has just come out that he is damaged goods. Sure Hamels and Lee are good starting points and I would not completely rule out a trade of Lee this off season.
Enjoy the playoffs and we'll all watch with great anticipation how the off season unfolds.
Dubee the first shoe to drop. 9 Seasons is a long time and there is some thing to be said for a fresh voice. Change for the sake of change isn't always good but if they can bring in a quality guy with no preconceived notions about who these pitchers are it might be a step forward.
The Phillies finished even better than I had thought 73-89 and it looks like that will be good enough for the 7th overall pick in the draft. Obviously you can get a pretty good player there but also we can sign a Free Agent that received a qualifying offer without forfeiting our own draft pick.
The free agent class isn't much to get overly excited about. Sure there are some pieces out there that would help a team right on the edge of a championship but added to this roster at this time probably doesn't make sense.
If Pence got 5/$90 what do you thing guys like Choo and Ellsbury will command? Actually that is quite a steal for the Giants. Pence finished 13th in OPS among all OF last season and his career numbers suggest you can consistently count on him for 20-25 HR's and near 100 RBI. He's just a good player and a good kid.
Here is a name for you. How about Marlon Byrd finished 8th among all OF in OPS last season...8th and he hits from the right side.
Anyway back to the FA class. The Phillies are short in the rotation on paper unless Gonzalez turns out to be something special. You may consider adding Garza but word has just come out that he is damaged goods. Sure Hamels and Lee are good starting points and I would not completely rule out a trade of Lee this off season.
Enjoy the playoffs and we'll all watch with great anticipation how the off season unfolds.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
A New Philosphy
A bunch of SABR nerds wouldn't let go of an innocuous statement RAJ made some time ago about not caring about walks and wanting production. No doubt walks equal production but it certainly isn't the only way to have production.
Anyway it occurred to me as I watch Ryne and this group of players finishing out the season that the Phillies were definitely walking more and more disciplined at the plate so I looked it up. In the month of September the Phils are 5th in the league in OBP and 11th in BB.
In the month of August they were dead last in OBP and 26th in BB. So maybe just maybe the problem wasn't RAJ. Maybe it was the philosophy of the manager. In my opinion a good GM would never publicly embarrass his manager or a player. RAJ's statement that day was obviously counter intuitive and he knew it. I'm sure it is something he and Charlie battled over behind close doors on more than one occasion.
Pitching in my opinion will always be the path to the post season. The take away is this don't listen as much to what a GM says but rather what he does.
Anyway it occurred to me as I watch Ryne and this group of players finishing out the season that the Phillies were definitely walking more and more disciplined at the plate so I looked it up. In the month of September the Phils are 5th in the league in OBP and 11th in BB.
In the month of August they were dead last in OBP and 26th in BB. So maybe just maybe the problem wasn't RAJ. Maybe it was the philosophy of the manager. In my opinion a good GM would never publicly embarrass his manager or a player. RAJ's statement that day was obviously counter intuitive and he knew it. I'm sure it is something he and Charlie battled over behind close doors on more than one occasion.
Pitching in my opinion will always be the path to the post season. The take away is this don't listen as much to what a GM says but rather what he does.
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