23 Games left 62-77, 20 games back. 284 749 Mickey Moniak the 1:1 overall pick is hitting and opsing in the GCL He is 18 and will be 19 next May where I expect him to be doing his thing at LKW.
Cozens won the ESL MVP and Rhys Hoskins the ROY. Clearly Rhys has the better all around hit tool. He's a pretty sure bet to play and hold his own in the MLB. Cozens is more suspect as the K rate is high and the OPS against lefties is pretty bad but that said the athleticism is off the charts and his size and speed are reminiscent of a Chris Davis.
Crawford and Williams are experiencing AAA growing pains. Crawford will be fine Williams maybe not.
Alfaro has been up and down both offensively and defensively but a catcher has so much more to worry about than a traditional position player I expect him to be fine speaking of catchers Chooch was traded last month making Howard the last player from the 08 WS.
Klentak is coming up on his 1 year anniversary. I expect him to stay the course with acquiring draft picks and young talent. I expect him to give Hellboy a QO and collect a draft pick that is and assumes Jeremy doesn't stick it to them and accept the 1 year $17 million.
You'd like to say they have a trade chip in Odubel Herrera a young controllable player that looks like an everyday center fielder al beit with little pop. What is he worth in terms of young talent back or a upside controllable arm will determine if he is moved in the off season. At the moment he is really your best trade chip.
Pitching still has a ways to go. Nola went down with arm issues still waiting to see if TJ is required and while Eflin has knee issues his arm talent was noticeable but inconsistent. Jake Thompson's 6 starts thus far were lack luster as evidenced by his 1.53 WHIP. Still just 22 there is a lot there for him to work with.
The bright spot for sure was Velasquez and while the results in terms of innings were average the stuff is definitely that of a front line starter 10.4 K/9 is exceptional now if he can work on a change or a pitch with more arm side run to get lefties out he can take another step forward in 17.
Finally and overall the organization needs to get better at developing the approach of their young hitters and really emphasizing the importance of staying in the strike zone, seeing pitches and driving the ball the other way.
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Thursday, June 2, 2016
JUNE 2 AND THE AIR IS OUT OF THE BALOON
First with the draft being next Thursday let's link to the latest Mock http://www.fueledbysports.com/2016-mlb-mock-draft
Lot's of chatter late says we are going with Puk. Not sure how I feel about that. My concerns are all with his command and his lack of secondary pitches. Yea the FB is live but that doesn't matter in the big leagues if that's all you got.
As far as the big club is concerned we just got swept by the Nats and now sit a game below .500 and 4th in the division. Tommy Joseph was called up 5/13 and since then has appeared in 14 games. Hitting just .244 with a .250 OBP the frustration again has been inconsistent playing time but just yesterday news broke that Howard is definitely going to be on the bench to clear his head for the next 4-5 games. In my opinion it should be more than that.
Our great starting pitching to start the season has cooled off a little bit and advanced scouting gets out and more video is recorded Vincent is starting to hit that wall that all young pitchers run into. This game is not that easy and to be great you have to re-invent yourself constantly pitch to pitch AB to AB.
Odubel has been the lone shining star of consistency his BA still sits around .300 and his OBP is soaring high at .427.
On the Pharm Crawford was promoted a week or so ago to LHV and Alfaro is maintaining his hot start. Jake Thompson is really struggling with AAA hitters while Eflin has made great strides. Appel is on the DL as is Randolph. Nick Williams has been really steady in AAA as there is a lot to be said for a 22 year old position player holding his own in that league.
Kingery is coming on and Cozens is having a decent season at AA. So much baseball still left to play we'll see where we are come June 30. The draft will be complete and some of the underperforming veterans will be released or traded and quite possibly some of the rookies may be seeing their numbers called up to Philly.
Lot's of chatter late says we are going with Puk. Not sure how I feel about that. My concerns are all with his command and his lack of secondary pitches. Yea the FB is live but that doesn't matter in the big leagues if that's all you got.
As far as the big club is concerned we just got swept by the Nats and now sit a game below .500 and 4th in the division. Tommy Joseph was called up 5/13 and since then has appeared in 14 games. Hitting just .244 with a .250 OBP the frustration again has been inconsistent playing time but just yesterday news broke that Howard is definitely going to be on the bench to clear his head for the next 4-5 games. In my opinion it should be more than that.
Our great starting pitching to start the season has cooled off a little bit and advanced scouting gets out and more video is recorded Vincent is starting to hit that wall that all young pitchers run into. This game is not that easy and to be great you have to re-invent yourself constantly pitch to pitch AB to AB.
Odubel has been the lone shining star of consistency his BA still sits around .300 and his OBP is soaring high at .427.
On the Pharm Crawford was promoted a week or so ago to LHV and Alfaro is maintaining his hot start. Jake Thompson is really struggling with AAA hitters while Eflin has made great strides. Appel is on the DL as is Randolph. Nick Williams has been really steady in AAA as there is a lot to be said for a 22 year old position player holding his own in that league.
Kingery is coming on and Cozens is having a decent season at AA. So much baseball still left to play we'll see where we are come June 30. The draft will be complete and some of the underperforming veterans will be released or traded and quite possibly some of the rookies may be seeing their numbers called up to Philly.
Monday, May 2, 2016
15 AND 10
Our Phillies finished the month of April above .500. Andres Blanco is hitting .323 with a .400 OBP. Hererra has a .449 OBP with 23 walks over 18 K's. Franco leads the team in HR's and RBI's.
The pitching is equally impressive Velasquez is 4-1 with .89 WHIP, a 1.44 ERA and 39 K's in only 31.1 IP. Nola carries a .88 WHIP and Eickhoff a 1.12 WHIP. The BP has seen some unlikely hero's in Jeanmar Gomez with 8 Saves in a 8 Save Opportunities. Hector Neris is equally impressive with 24Ks in only 15.1 IP. I hope his arm doesn't fall off.
That's the good. The bad is Howard and Ruf have combined to form the worst 4 hole stats in MLB with a .658 and .481 OPS between them. Bourjos is hitting .171 with a .195 OBP. Galvis has a knack for timely hits but again his overall consistency is not that of an everyday SS in the bigs. Tyler Goeddel our Rule 5 pick-up this season has only 25 AB's through 25 games that to me is absurd. If you thought enough of the kid to keep him on the 25 man roster after a very mediocre spring training then they should have committed to play him everyday. If not send him back to Tampa or see if they will let you keep him down on the farm where he can play everyday.
Speaking of the Farm and our prospects. JP is still in AA probably bored and looking for a new challenge. he's hitting .278 but has an incredible .418 OBP, contrast that with what Galvis is doing and you can see how that would be a huge improvement on the big club. Still he is only 21 so more minor league seasoning is a good thing but c'mon let's bump him up a level.
Jake Thompson is struggling at AAA and hopefully that is because he is working on something specific. Appel is seemingly putting some really good starts together and finally Nick Williams is showing signs of life at 22 in AAA. He is hitting .299 with a .742 OPS.
Andrew Knapp is a pure hitter and could easily be on the big club right now but not as a catcher. touch decision there. He could be a call up to play 1B everyday but then he loses any chance of developing behind the dish. I would start to wonder "can this kid play left field a la Kyle Schwarber?"
One surprise is Tommy Joseph, remember him? The supposed prize of the Pence to the Giants trade. No longer viewed as a catching prospect because of concussions he is now getting his AB's at 1B. He's OPSing 1.074 in AAA at just 24 he should be in the mix as a call-up given Howard and Ruf's putrid starts.
Staying on the catching theme Jorge Alfaro was tearing it up in Reading hitting .500 and OPSing 1.274 through 38 PA's but got hurt...again. I hope this isn't a sign of things to come. Current Injury is right oblique strain.
Draft is getting near as you know we hold the 1st overall pick. Pitching is still Groome in my eyes. he is as polished as they come out of HS and low innings on that arm as opposed at the pitching prospects in college. As for Position players still no clear cut guy you would say is a 1:1 but Kyle Lewis is killing the ball at Mercer College. I love his profile 6'4" 215 pounds, raw power and athletic enough to play some CF, enough arm to move to RF if necessary.
The pitching is equally impressive Velasquez is 4-1 with .89 WHIP, a 1.44 ERA and 39 K's in only 31.1 IP. Nola carries a .88 WHIP and Eickhoff a 1.12 WHIP. The BP has seen some unlikely hero's in Jeanmar Gomez with 8 Saves in a 8 Save Opportunities. Hector Neris is equally impressive with 24Ks in only 15.1 IP. I hope his arm doesn't fall off.
That's the good. The bad is Howard and Ruf have combined to form the worst 4 hole stats in MLB with a .658 and .481 OPS between them. Bourjos is hitting .171 with a .195 OBP. Galvis has a knack for timely hits but again his overall consistency is not that of an everyday SS in the bigs. Tyler Goeddel our Rule 5 pick-up this season has only 25 AB's through 25 games that to me is absurd. If you thought enough of the kid to keep him on the 25 man roster after a very mediocre spring training then they should have committed to play him everyday. If not send him back to Tampa or see if they will let you keep him down on the farm where he can play everyday.
Speaking of the Farm and our prospects. JP is still in AA probably bored and looking for a new challenge. he's hitting .278 but has an incredible .418 OBP, contrast that with what Galvis is doing and you can see how that would be a huge improvement on the big club. Still he is only 21 so more minor league seasoning is a good thing but c'mon let's bump him up a level.
Jake Thompson is struggling at AAA and hopefully that is because he is working on something specific. Appel is seemingly putting some really good starts together and finally Nick Williams is showing signs of life at 22 in AAA. He is hitting .299 with a .742 OPS.
Andrew Knapp is a pure hitter and could easily be on the big club right now but not as a catcher. touch decision there. He could be a call up to play 1B everyday but then he loses any chance of developing behind the dish. I would start to wonder "can this kid play left field a la Kyle Schwarber?"
One surprise is Tommy Joseph, remember him? The supposed prize of the Pence to the Giants trade. No longer viewed as a catching prospect because of concussions he is now getting his AB's at 1B. He's OPSing 1.074 in AAA at just 24 he should be in the mix as a call-up given Howard and Ruf's putrid starts.
Staying on the catching theme Jorge Alfaro was tearing it up in Reading hitting .500 and OPSing 1.274 through 38 PA's but got hurt...again. I hope this isn't a sign of things to come. Current Injury is right oblique strain.
Draft is getting near as you know we hold the 1st overall pick. Pitching is still Groome in my eyes. he is as polished as they come out of HS and low innings on that arm as opposed at the pitching prospects in college. As for Position players still no clear cut guy you would say is a 1:1 but Kyle Lewis is killing the ball at Mercer College. I love his profile 6'4" 215 pounds, raw power and athletic enough to play some CF, enough arm to move to RF if necessary.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Spring Training Review
The Phillies will head north in a few days. All in all they managed a winning record and played really good baseball. Franco led the league in bombs and seems poised to pick up where he left off before his 2015 injury.
Vincent Velasquez looks legit. His stuff is the real deal and maybe he is not an Ace today but he definitely has the potential to grow into that. After all look what happened to Jake Arrietta once he left Baltimore.
Herrea is just a really nice player and no doubt now that he is a solid everyday MLB player.
The rest of the team to start is just meh but wait that leaves out Nola and Eickhoff. I think both will be good pitchers but neither appear to have the upside that VV has. That's not a bad thing as I think Nola fits very well as an above average 3 and probably will have some years where he flirts with 15 wins. Same for Eickhoff.
The real funs begin at whichever point in the season JP comes up and Nick Williams comes up and Jake Thompson. Those guys along with Franco have the real potential to be stars and make everyone around them look better. They seem likely to be the next core of getting to the top of the NL East.
Most importantly this team despite the record will be much more enjoyable to watch. I suspect the changes and new faces mean an additional 5-8 wins this year. I like that they extended Pete Mckanin I think he has a good way with players and a sharp baseball mind.
I expect the minor league system to produce value in the next few years and a #1 overall pick shouldn't hurt either.
Vincent Velasquez looks legit. His stuff is the real deal and maybe he is not an Ace today but he definitely has the potential to grow into that. After all look what happened to Jake Arrietta once he left Baltimore.
Herrea is just a really nice player and no doubt now that he is a solid everyday MLB player.
The rest of the team to start is just meh but wait that leaves out Nola and Eickhoff. I think both will be good pitchers but neither appear to have the upside that VV has. That's not a bad thing as I think Nola fits very well as an above average 3 and probably will have some years where he flirts with 15 wins. Same for Eickhoff.
The real funs begin at whichever point in the season JP comes up and Nick Williams comes up and Jake Thompson. Those guys along with Franco have the real potential to be stars and make everyone around them look better. They seem likely to be the next core of getting to the top of the NL East.
Most importantly this team despite the record will be much more enjoyable to watch. I suspect the changes and new faces mean an additional 5-8 wins this year. I like that they extended Pete Mckanin I think he has a good way with players and a sharp baseball mind.
I expect the minor league system to produce value in the next few years and a #1 overall pick shouldn't hurt either.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Draft Watch 2016
Pitchers and Catchers are doing their thing at the Carpenter complex. Jumping Jacks and PFPs daily. Word is just about everybody is present in camp already which is always a good sign. That said one can't ignore where we are today and where we might be a year from now. 2016 is all about the youth and which of those prospects returned to us in the Hamels and Giles deals are ready to emerge.
Secondly we have drafted very well in the past 3 years J.P Crawford, Aaron Nola and Cornelius Randolph but this year will be the highest we've drafted in forever. 1st pick in the draft overall. Let's take a look at some of those names we'll have to choose from
Pitching seems to be the depth of this years draft so we can start there
A.J Puk College Pitcher at Florida
Jason Groome HS Pitcher Jackson NJ
Alec Hanson College Pitcher Oklahoma
Riley Pint HS Pitcher Kansas
These guys pretty much make up the tier you would consider as a 1st overall pick
Position Player strength for a 1:1 is not as deep. There is no Bryce Harper or Carlos Correa this year but we do have:
Kyle Lewis OF Mercer College in GA
Blake Rutherford OF HS Chaminade Prep
Delvin Perez SS out of the International Baseball Academy
These guys are easily top 10 picks but the 1st overall is pretty special and you need to make sure the player's talent is commensurate with that spot.
Other names to watch are Cal Quantrill (father Paul pitched 14 years in the big leagues) and Matt Krook. Both are in various stages of TJ Rehab but both easily would have been strong candidates in the top 10.
http://www.fueledbysports.com/2016-mlb-mock-draft/
Secondly we have drafted very well in the past 3 years J.P Crawford, Aaron Nola and Cornelius Randolph but this year will be the highest we've drafted in forever. 1st pick in the draft overall. Let's take a look at some of those names we'll have to choose from
Pitching seems to be the depth of this years draft so we can start there
A.J Puk College Pitcher at Florida
Jason Groome HS Pitcher Jackson NJ
Alec Hanson College Pitcher Oklahoma
Riley Pint HS Pitcher Kansas
These guys pretty much make up the tier you would consider as a 1st overall pick
Position Player strength for a 1:1 is not as deep. There is no Bryce Harper or Carlos Correa this year but we do have:
Kyle Lewis OF Mercer College in GA
Blake Rutherford OF HS Chaminade Prep
Delvin Perez SS out of the International Baseball Academy
These guys are easily top 10 picks but the 1st overall is pretty special and you need to make sure the player's talent is commensurate with that spot.
Other names to watch are Cal Quantrill (father Paul pitched 14 years in the big leagues) and Matt Krook. Both are in various stages of TJ Rehab but both easily would have been strong candidates in the top 10.
http://www.fueledbysports.com/2016-mlb-mock-draft/
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Coming Up Pitchers and Catchers Feb 18
Almost 2 weeks from today Pitchers and Catchers will report to Clearwater. Mac has pretty much said how the starting rotation will look Nola, Eickhoff, Hellickson and Morton. Up for grabs will be the 5th spot and the front runner on talent would be Vincent Velasquez but that doesn't mean he breaks camp with the big club.
Vincent has amazing stuff but in the fold will be Brett Oberholzer as he has 0 options remaining. Adam Morgan will be in the convo seeing how he fared pretty well in 15 starts. He pitched to a 1.245 WHIP but his K/9 numbers are really low. It will be tough for Adam to sustain success in the big leagues with a K/9 of just 5.2.
Others who will be barking for a spot in the rotation at some point will be Mark Appel and Jake Thompson. Spring will be huge for Mark and I'm not sure he can do anything to break camp with the big club without first handling 8-10 Starts in LHV. Thompson is young at just 22. He is, in many circles our #2-#3 prospect so they may not want to start his service time until late this year.
Klentak has announced his approach to a rebuild with authority and it will weight heavily on pitching. In the lower levels names to watch will be Kilome, Pinto, Arano and Tirado all of whom are 21. Kilome and Tirado are flame throwers while Pinto and Arano are command and control guys.
There are other names too as in Eflin Asher, Pivetta, Lively and Eshelman
In terms of catchers the Phillies have Chooch and Rupp and most would say Rupp is going to see the majority of starts behind the plate with Carlos being a huge factor in support and teaching. Knapp will present the most interesting name in camp as far as I am concerned. He has the best hit tool of all the catchers in the system. His defense and game calling need a lot more polish however. Second to him is Alfaro. I have him rated as our #11 prospect Callis and Mayo have him higher and in the MLB top 50.
He's intriguing for sure. Plenty of raw power. The only question will be can he tame his aggressive approach to tap into that power all the while finishing his defensive skills behind the dish. Pitchers frankly don't care about their catchers offensive games. They want to know he can handle whatever they throw in the dirt and grasp the concepts of what they like to throw in different counts and such. The nuances of being a MLB catcher have much to do about pitch framing and communication skills as anything else.
Vincent has amazing stuff but in the fold will be Brett Oberholzer as he has 0 options remaining. Adam Morgan will be in the convo seeing how he fared pretty well in 15 starts. He pitched to a 1.245 WHIP but his K/9 numbers are really low. It will be tough for Adam to sustain success in the big leagues with a K/9 of just 5.2.
Others who will be barking for a spot in the rotation at some point will be Mark Appel and Jake Thompson. Spring will be huge for Mark and I'm not sure he can do anything to break camp with the big club without first handling 8-10 Starts in LHV. Thompson is young at just 22. He is, in many circles our #2-#3 prospect so they may not want to start his service time until late this year.
Klentak has announced his approach to a rebuild with authority and it will weight heavily on pitching. In the lower levels names to watch will be Kilome, Pinto, Arano and Tirado all of whom are 21. Kilome and Tirado are flame throwers while Pinto and Arano are command and control guys.
There are other names too as in Eflin Asher, Pivetta, Lively and Eshelman
In terms of catchers the Phillies have Chooch and Rupp and most would say Rupp is going to see the majority of starts behind the plate with Carlos being a huge factor in support and teaching. Knapp will present the most interesting name in camp as far as I am concerned. He has the best hit tool of all the catchers in the system. His defense and game calling need a lot more polish however. Second to him is Alfaro. I have him rated as our #11 prospect Callis and Mayo have him higher and in the MLB top 50.
He's intriguing for sure. Plenty of raw power. The only question will be can he tame his aggressive approach to tap into that power all the while finishing his defensive skills behind the dish. Pitchers frankly don't care about their catchers offensive games. They want to know he can handle whatever they throw in the dirt and grasp the concepts of what they like to throw in different counts and such. The nuances of being a MLB catcher have much to do about pitch framing and communication skills as anything else.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Prospect Review and Profiles 1-5
J.P. Crawford-In 2012 the Phillies finished their season 81-81 and ended up with the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft. They selected J.P. the cousin of Carl Crawford with that pick. JP has been everything they had hoped he would be since he entered the system.
As a hitter JP has incredible hand eye coordination and pitch recognition skills. Rarely will you see JP fooled on a pitch and rarely will you see him strike out. He can grind out an AB and will take walks but that is not the end of his bat talent. When JP sees the pitch he wants it comes off his bat with authority and crack.
Defensively Crawford is really smooth and he may not possess the same kind of range and arm as Jimmy Rollins but he will get the job done and possibly improve that area of his game significantly after he gets to the majors.
Floor-Everyday SS in the MLB that plays above average defense
Ceiling Perenial All Star candidate; Prototypical lead off skills and run scorer. I could see him having a Jeter-Esque career in Philly
Jake Thompson-Came over in the Hamels to TX trade. I love the way this kid competes. Nothing about him is flashy. He doesn't sit 96-97. What he does do is get hitters out with a good FB, good curve ball mix.
Floor-Brett Myers
Celing-Brett Myers/Peavy
Nick Williams-Another blue chip piece in the Hamels to TX trade. Nick has great tools. He generates great bat speed, runs well, throws well. The questions are can he hit lefties enough to be an everyday player and can he minimize his K's. What type of in game power will he develop. The swing is short and quick tremendous bat speed so its not like he can't put balls out of the yard now. He can hit them a long way when he squares them up.
Floor-Michael Bourn with not quite the same speed and base stealing ability but more pop
Ceiling-.275 25+ HR guy I think possibly an Alex Gordon type.
Andrew Knapp-53rd overall pick in 2013 out of Cal Berkley. The Phillies thought enough of him to pay him a six figure signing bonus. Injuries hampered his first 2 seasons but Andrew got it together in 2015 hitting a combined .308 with an .876 OPS at 2 Levels Hi-A and AA. A switch hitting catcher has tons of value.
Floor-Jarrod Saltalamachia
Ceiling-Something just short of Posada
Cornelius Randolph-The 10th pick overall in the 2015 Amateur Draft Randolph simply put is the LF version of Tony Gwynn in stature and profile. He is kind of a throw back to a Wade Boggs in my opinion. I think defensively we are looking at an average player that hits near .300 with 20-30 doubles and maybe 10-15 HR's a season.
Floor-Daniel Murphy
Ceiling-Tony Gwynn
As a hitter JP has incredible hand eye coordination and pitch recognition skills. Rarely will you see JP fooled on a pitch and rarely will you see him strike out. He can grind out an AB and will take walks but that is not the end of his bat talent. When JP sees the pitch he wants it comes off his bat with authority and crack.
Defensively Crawford is really smooth and he may not possess the same kind of range and arm as Jimmy Rollins but he will get the job done and possibly improve that area of his game significantly after he gets to the majors.
Floor-Everyday SS in the MLB that plays above average defense
Ceiling Perenial All Star candidate; Prototypical lead off skills and run scorer. I could see him having a Jeter-Esque career in Philly
Jake Thompson-Came over in the Hamels to TX trade. I love the way this kid competes. Nothing about him is flashy. He doesn't sit 96-97. What he does do is get hitters out with a good FB, good curve ball mix.
Floor-Brett Myers
Celing-Brett Myers/Peavy
Nick Williams-Another blue chip piece in the Hamels to TX trade. Nick has great tools. He generates great bat speed, runs well, throws well. The questions are can he hit lefties enough to be an everyday player and can he minimize his K's. What type of in game power will he develop. The swing is short and quick tremendous bat speed so its not like he can't put balls out of the yard now. He can hit them a long way when he squares them up.
Floor-Michael Bourn with not quite the same speed and base stealing ability but more pop
Ceiling-.275 25+ HR guy I think possibly an Alex Gordon type.
Andrew Knapp-53rd overall pick in 2013 out of Cal Berkley. The Phillies thought enough of him to pay him a six figure signing bonus. Injuries hampered his first 2 seasons but Andrew got it together in 2015 hitting a combined .308 with an .876 OPS at 2 Levels Hi-A and AA. A switch hitting catcher has tons of value.
Floor-Jarrod Saltalamachia
Ceiling-Something just short of Posada
Cornelius Randolph-The 10th pick overall in the 2015 Amateur Draft Randolph simply put is the LF version of Tony Gwynn in stature and profile. He is kind of a throw back to a Wade Boggs in my opinion. I think defensively we are looking at an average player that hits near .300 with 20-30 doubles and maybe 10-15 HR's a season.
Floor-Daniel Murphy
Ceiling-Tony Gwynn
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