Stat geeks love run differential. Basically if you score more runs than you allow you win games right? Let's dig: Currently the Cardinals are 29-16 and +57 which is good enough for the best record in baseball only slightly. Texas is 29-17 and +46.
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
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