Thursday, January 7, 2016

Pitching Dominance Index

Here is a simple formula that I have developed to measure how dominant a pitcher is 

Hits/9-K/9 Divided By WHIP

Let's breakdown each component.  Hits/9 is straight forward.  We're looking at how many times the batters are winning with the bat against a pitcher with this stat.  It's shallow in many respects because we're not looking at doubles vs. HR's etc...

But at the end of a pitchers line if the other team wasn't able to manage many hits against him that's a good sign.  So far in my studies it is very few and far between the number of pitchers that have a H/9 lower than their K/9 but when you do find it and look up at the pitchers name it's generally a name one would recognize as a tough guy to face.

K/9 again very straight forward.  A pitchers ability to get outs from the "strike out" takes many things out of play such as errors.  We generally recognize that pitchers with a K/9 above 8 in the bigs is pretty dominant.

WHIP (Walks Hits to Innings Pitched) we bring this into the equation because it represents the base on balls factor.  In addition because it is per innings pitched and not per 9 innings pitched it seems to help smooth out the factor.

Now we apply the equation to the knowns and see what it looks like:


Hamels minor league dominance index was a negative -7.05. Kyle Kendricks was a positive 2.75 Brett Myers was a +.348 and Aaron Nola was a +.657
Kilome is a +1.56 Vincent Velasquez is -3.26; Jake Thompson is is +.645
Historical reference Roger Clemons in the minors was a -4.54 and more recent Jake Arrieta Minors Dominance Index was a -.509.  Jake was the 2015 Cy Young in the N.L.
A Negative number is obviously extreme dominance; A  positive number less than 1 is pretty darn good and even a number 1.00-2.00 is an above average pitcher.
Once you start to get above that you start seeing guys that are pretty mediocre but there are outliers.  Greg Maddux for instance finished his career with a Dominance Index of 2.10.  He pitched quite a long time though so I imagine if you did the exercise of applying that formula to his prime years it would be much lower.
Try it out for yourself.  Use pitchers from the past and present and see how they compare.  Use their minors stats first then use their MLB stats.  I like to do this with HOF pitchers just to see.

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