Any exercise in deciding what the Phillies should do going forward, I imagine, begins with an evaluation of payroll for 2014:
Hamels-$22.5
Howard-$25
Lee-$25
Papelbon-$13
Rollins-$11
Adams-$6
Brown-$500K
Revere-$500K
Known is roughly $104 Million tied up in 8 players. Unknowns would be Utley and Ruiz, Kendrick and then a bunch of role players.
A 25 man roster and you need to allocate the remaining budget to 17 players, 4 of which will be starting position players C, 3B, 2B and RF. 3 of Which will be starting rotation behind Lee and Hamels.
The 2014 F/A market is thin. Garza is supposed to hit the market unless the team he gets traded to locks him up. Ellsbury is probably the top name available in the OF both are likely to get AAV deals upwards of $18 Million. Choo will be another name to watch but I'm not sure either is a likely fit for us. I see us needing a right handed hitting RF with .850+ OPS.
We'll see how it shakes out!
Monday, July 22, 2013
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Here we go! 13
Days until the trade deadline and 66 games remaining. The Phillies would need to go 42-24 a .636 winning percentage down the stretch to win 90 games. Sure Charlie has done that before but with teams on a different trajectory than this one.
The propaganda from Amaro is that we are buyers not sellers. Dave Montgomery said today its too early to tell. The team sits now with a number of rentals: Utley, Ruiz, Michael Young, and Delmon Young none of which are lighting the stat sheets on fire to a degree where you would say a team in contention would overpay for 3 months of their service and all of which have question marks in their game or injury history or both.
The real assets on the team would be Cliff Lee and Oucho Cinco. Amaro has made it a point many times to say Lee is a guy we build around. My opinion is he would have to be blown away with an offer to move him. Papelbon on the other hand is a candidate for sure. Both Boston and Detroit could use an experienced closer at the back end of their BP and both can afford his remaining $45.5 in salary but would either of them absorb that amount of money and give up a top flight prospect? I don't think so not when Papelbon has struggled of late. Timing in life is everything and unfortunately for RAJ there appears to be other less expensive options out there.
I often say its better to be lucky than good and RAJ for all of his effort has been neither. An optimist might say he is at least due for some luck but Revere's injury seems to indicate otherwise. Brown is cooling off and with the lack of talent around him would suggest a mediocre finish to an otherwise fine first half is in the cards.
So here we are in mediocre land. Not horrible enough and without good assets to sell and not good enough and without a deep enough farm to buy. I would guess a team looking for cash or cash relief might have something of value to give you. Maybe a piece to sure up the BP but offense and defense are still going to loom large in their sprint to the finish.
The propaganda from Amaro is that we are buyers not sellers. Dave Montgomery said today its too early to tell. The team sits now with a number of rentals: Utley, Ruiz, Michael Young, and Delmon Young none of which are lighting the stat sheets on fire to a degree where you would say a team in contention would overpay for 3 months of their service and all of which have question marks in their game or injury history or both.
The real assets on the team would be Cliff Lee and Oucho Cinco. Amaro has made it a point many times to say Lee is a guy we build around. My opinion is he would have to be blown away with an offer to move him. Papelbon on the other hand is a candidate for sure. Both Boston and Detroit could use an experienced closer at the back end of their BP and both can afford his remaining $45.5 in salary but would either of them absorb that amount of money and give up a top flight prospect? I don't think so not when Papelbon has struggled of late. Timing in life is everything and unfortunately for RAJ there appears to be other less expensive options out there.
I often say its better to be lucky than good and RAJ for all of his effort has been neither. An optimist might say he is at least due for some luck but Revere's injury seems to indicate otherwise. Brown is cooling off and with the lack of talent around him would suggest a mediocre finish to an otherwise fine first half is in the cards.
So here we are in mediocre land. Not horrible enough and without good assets to sell and not good enough and without a deep enough farm to buy. I would guess a team looking for cash or cash relief might have something of value to give you. Maybe a piece to sure up the BP but offense and defense are still going to loom large in their sprint to the finish.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Contender or Pretender
Is it rhetoric, GM speak or something else? RAJ has to know this team has no chance of contending even if they snagged the 5 playoff spot. Nearly impossible if you look at the NL Central.
Lots of chatter the Tigers are in on Papelbon...done give me Castellanos straight up and I make him my everyday left fielder today and move Brown to right field. Even if Castellanos isn't available Avisail Garcia would be. I don't kick in money for Avi, I would for Castellanos. Nick is a legit middle of the line-up hitter and can play a solid LF.
Next up move Michael Young to a team that really needs him and call up Maikel Franco in the same vein that the other teams like the Orioles brought up Machado. Will he struggle? Of Course but players are players and not to many would disagree that Franco is a big league player. Oh by the way remember a call up by the name of Howard. My middle line-up of the future is now Castellanos/Brown/Franco.
As for the off season it's Ryne, Qualifying offers to Chase and Ruiz and go hard after Matt Garza. Revere isn't going to get any worse and he might not get any better but at worst he would have value as a 4th OF. Roman Quinn our #3 prospect coming into the season has struggled at SS and you just drafted JP Crawford with the 16th pick. Move Roman now to CF and see if he can be ready in 2 or 3 seasons.
You probably cannot move Howard but that's no reason to stunt the growth of the next wave of core players and his embarrassing salary should not dictate he bats 4th.
Lots of chatter the Tigers are in on Papelbon...done give me Castellanos straight up and I make him my everyday left fielder today and move Brown to right field. Even if Castellanos isn't available Avisail Garcia would be. I don't kick in money for Avi, I would for Castellanos. Nick is a legit middle of the line-up hitter and can play a solid LF.
Next up move Michael Young to a team that really needs him and call up Maikel Franco in the same vein that the other teams like the Orioles brought up Machado. Will he struggle? Of Course but players are players and not to many would disagree that Franco is a big league player. Oh by the way remember a call up by the name of Howard. My middle line-up of the future is now Castellanos/Brown/Franco.
As for the off season it's Ryne, Qualifying offers to Chase and Ruiz and go hard after Matt Garza. Revere isn't going to get any worse and he might not get any better but at worst he would have value as a 4th OF. Roman Quinn our #3 prospect coming into the season has struggled at SS and you just drafted JP Crawford with the 16th pick. Move Roman now to CF and see if he can be ready in 2 or 3 seasons.
You probably cannot move Howard but that's no reason to stunt the growth of the next wave of core players and his embarrassing salary should not dictate he bats 4th.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Finding Dignity
For all intensive purposes the Phillies are out of the hunt. That's conjecture on my part sure. The question now is in light of the moves that need to be made for the better of the franchise how does one find dignity for the manager with the most wins and a WS title in Franchise History?
How does one go about replacing the best SS in franchise history and quite possibly deciding to move on from the best 2B in franchise history? Those are not easy decisions for any franchise let alone one that just a few years ago led the entire MLB in wins.
You look at the Cardinals and see how Mozeliak caught a few breaks. First LaRussa made the decision easy by retiring and then Pujols and Arte Moreno made it even easier by floating a ridiculous contract offer at Albert. Quite simply it was easy for the Cards fan base to accept his departure.
RAJ won't be so lucky. His hand will be forced. I don't imagine too many fans will begrudge him for replacing Charlie with Ryne. Utley and Rollins on the other hand will be a slippery slope. Rollins less so than 26.
For all the doom and gloom RAJ is positioned nicely to rebuild. Lee is marketable and would return major league ready talent. Probably a teams best right handed OF prospect and a high level pitching prospect. Papelbon as well could return a nice piece.
By all accounts the Phillies had a nice draft and they have two really good prospects in Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco, a left handed starter with a 1.132 WHIP and 10.9K/9 in AA and Franco a 3B prospect at 20 in High A Clearwater.
Things are ugly now but let's see how the GM plays his hand because I believe he has a good one!
How does one go about replacing the best SS in franchise history and quite possibly deciding to move on from the best 2B in franchise history? Those are not easy decisions for any franchise let alone one that just a few years ago led the entire MLB in wins.
You look at the Cardinals and see how Mozeliak caught a few breaks. First LaRussa made the decision easy by retiring and then Pujols and Arte Moreno made it even easier by floating a ridiculous contract offer at Albert. Quite simply it was easy for the Cards fan base to accept his departure.
RAJ won't be so lucky. His hand will be forced. I don't imagine too many fans will begrudge him for replacing Charlie with Ryne. Utley and Rollins on the other hand will be a slippery slope. Rollins less so than 26.
For all the doom and gloom RAJ is positioned nicely to rebuild. Lee is marketable and would return major league ready talent. Probably a teams best right handed OF prospect and a high level pitching prospect. Papelbon as well could return a nice piece.
By all accounts the Phillies had a nice draft and they have two really good prospects in Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco, a left handed starter with a 1.132 WHIP and 10.9K/9 in AA and Franco a 3B prospect at 20 in High A Clearwater.
Things are ugly now but let's see how the GM plays his hand because I believe he has a good one!
Monday, June 3, 2013
The Calendar Turns June
And the Phillies are 3 Games under .500, 7.5 Back of the Braves for the division and 8 Back for a Wild Card Birth.
Dom Brown is red hot with 16 HR's and an OPS of .895 without walking once in the month of May. A lot of chatter these days about how Brown was handled back in 2011 a lot of revisionist history but such is life in professional baseball.
To be fair the 2011 team went on to win 102 games they clearly were operating in a window where they had a legit shot at their 2nd WS in 4 years. Dom at that time while having decent numbers clearly looked like a player that still had some things to learn about being a professional.
There are times when that teaching should be done at that level and times when it should not. That year was the latter.
Moving on, Cole Hamels worst season in WHIP was 09 1.286 which followed his 08 WS MVP season where he logged a staggering 227 IP. This season the anomaly is 1.338 compared to his career average 1.148. The K rate is still there at 8/9 so this funk must be a command issue and issue of focus.
Decisions ahead loom large. Utley is still out with his oblique and Ruiz still out with a hamstring. Delmon is coming up on 100 AB's and his OBP and OPS numbers are bad, really bad which shines a bigger spot light on how bad he is defensively. I don't see this experiment lasting much longer. Lee and Papelbon are the guys to keep an eye on. Both are pitching very well and figure to be hot commodities at the dead line with strong potential to return big league ready prospects.
I look for the F/O to return a legit right handed bat prospect that can play either right or left now. I think that can be obtained with Paps. I'd be reluctant to move Lee without getting a haul in return.
Cesar Hernandez made his big league debut going 5/19 with 1 XBH.
Dom Brown is red hot with 16 HR's and an OPS of .895 without walking once in the month of May. A lot of chatter these days about how Brown was handled back in 2011 a lot of revisionist history but such is life in professional baseball.
To be fair the 2011 team went on to win 102 games they clearly were operating in a window where they had a legit shot at their 2nd WS in 4 years. Dom at that time while having decent numbers clearly looked like a player that still had some things to learn about being a professional.
There are times when that teaching should be done at that level and times when it should not. That year was the latter.
Moving on, Cole Hamels worst season in WHIP was 09 1.286 which followed his 08 WS MVP season where he logged a staggering 227 IP. This season the anomaly is 1.338 compared to his career average 1.148. The K rate is still there at 8/9 so this funk must be a command issue and issue of focus.
Decisions ahead loom large. Utley is still out with his oblique and Ruiz still out with a hamstring. Delmon is coming up on 100 AB's and his OBP and OPS numbers are bad, really bad which shines a bigger spot light on how bad he is defensively. I don't see this experiment lasting much longer. Lee and Papelbon are the guys to keep an eye on. Both are pitching very well and figure to be hot commodities at the dead line with strong potential to return big league ready prospects.
I look for the F/O to return a legit right handed bat prospect that can play either right or left now. I think that can be obtained with Paps. I'd be reluctant to move Lee without getting a haul in return.
Cesar Hernandez made his big league debut going 5/19 with 1 XBH.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Run Differential What Does it mean
Stat geeks love run differential. Basically if you score more runs than you allow you win games right? Let's dig: Currently the Cardinals are 29-16 and +57 which is good enough for the best record in baseball only slightly. Texas is 29-17 and +46.
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
News and Notes...Do's and Don'ts
News: We're 19-21 and 3.5 back of the Bravo's. Dom Brown is tied for the team lead in HR's with 7. Chase also has 7 Ryan is sitting at 6. The BP was flat out nasty last night. DeFratus was throwing some cheese and his sawing off Reynolds I believe was better than a K in that situation.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
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