Not much under the tree for Phillies fans. Ruiz is back and Roberto Hernandez the right handed version of a soft tossing lefty was added for depth to the starting rotation. Byrd is the proverbial aging right handed hitting left fielder al beit a good one.
The Tanaka Saga has more clarity and I expect the Phillies to make a strong play for his services state side but my enthusiasm is tempered with the new Japanese posting rules. Now more teams enter the equation creating more of a Free Agent type of scenario, the most any team can bid is $20M so expect quite a few teams to ante up that amount to talk to him. I predict he will sign for a Greinke type contract 6/$145 possibly less but Tanaka has leverage in this new system. More money will go to the player for sure. Couple that with the fact that most Japanese players if given the choice are more comfortable on the west coast.
More interesting is how this is effecting the other FA pitchers on the Market and most notably Garza. Garza has 0 compensation attached but also concerns about the elbow. Santana and Jimenez are most likely seeing limited interest because of compensation. Again teams drafting just outside the top 10 would be very reluctant to sign either player and all other teams would still have concerns for either losing 2nd round pool money or the pick all together. We saw this with Kyle Lohse last season.
If the Phillies lose out on the Tanaka sweepstakes I don't expect them to be in play for Garza with the elbow issues or any of the other starters for that matter. While they might not say it publicly I believe they are in an under the radar re-building plan. I know that seems counter intuitive to the hard moves we are seeing them make but players like Chooch, Byrd, Utley, Rollins, Lee or Hamels and even Howard can all be moved at the deadline to restock the system with young talent.
On paper next to the Nationals they don't have the starting rotation to compete depth wise with the Nats or the Dodgers for the NL pennant and the Cardinals arguably are right there as well with their pitching staff.
Now more often than not the best teams on paper don't always finish the race but if you're sizing up your club and it is aging and expensive the way to go is to move top tier assets for young stars and have their arrival coincide with an opportunity to add a few veteran stars via Free Agency. A great deal of luck is involved but I've always believed luck is a result of preparedness meeting opportunity.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Free Agent Pitchers
Let's start the conversation with Japanese phenom Tanaka. Again no compensation is tied to Tanaka so that means teams at risk of losing a 1st round pick for signing one of the lesser names will be all in on this guy and who ever comes out the winner will likely be out on some of these other names.
Garza-The prize of the off season because there is no compensation tied to him. Garza will be the litmus test for how much money is flooding into baseball. Why? Because there are definite red flags about the elbow and none about his competiveness. When he is right he is all day long a 5/$100. The Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Rangers will all be in the mix for his services.
Nolasco-Look for the Mets to make a major move to land his services with Matt Harvey being gone they need a guy that eats up innings and is close to being a front line starter at least something of a solid #3. Their pick is protected so they can afford to into the Anabel Sanchez area for Nolasco. 4/$72 seems right to me with an option to take it up to $90.
Santana-Is not a 5/$100 despite what he or his camp thinks. Honestly they don't really think that its classic negotiating tact to publicly put out an outrageous number. Look for the Mets to jump in here is they don't land their first choice which is Nolasco.It still will be obscene I'm thinking 4/$64.
Ubaldo-Not very interesting although once upon a time in Colorado he was. A return to the Rocky Mountains is not out of the question. I think teams will be reluctant to go more than 3/$42 and that might be tough to come by with compensation needed to be given up. Look at teams with a protected pick as possible options.
Rodney-Fernando should call the cops because the Rays picked his pocket big time for the last two years. No such luck this year he gets a big raise from Texas. 3/$27
Joe Nathan-Everyone says Tigers but I think the Tigers are looking for a guy they can give multi years to so that the position is sure for the next few years. I actually think Nathan lands with the Yankees on a 1/$9 with a vesting option that would take it up to $18.
Grant Balfour-How about the Tigers on a 2/$15
AJ Burnett-He's picky about where he wants to be. The Pirates say publicly they want him back but I don't believe they do. Definition of mercurial is this guy. I won't believe he retires until I see it. So while I have no idea where he will play I do see him playing on a 1/$15 deal.
Kuroda-I see no reason why he would leave NY. Possible the Dodgers bring him back but he gets a multi year deal this time 3/$51
Tim Timmy Hudson-This guy loves Atlanta, is 38 and coming off a severe ankle injury. I say he stays with Atlanta on a 1 Year Incentive laden deal 1/$8.
Garza-The prize of the off season because there is no compensation tied to him. Garza will be the litmus test for how much money is flooding into baseball. Why? Because there are definite red flags about the elbow and none about his competiveness. When he is right he is all day long a 5/$100. The Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Rangers will all be in the mix for his services.
Nolasco-Look for the Mets to make a major move to land his services with Matt Harvey being gone they need a guy that eats up innings and is close to being a front line starter at least something of a solid #3. Their pick is protected so they can afford to into the Anabel Sanchez area for Nolasco. 4/$72 seems right to me with an option to take it up to $90.
Santana-Is not a 5/$100 despite what he or his camp thinks. Honestly they don't really think that its classic negotiating tact to publicly put out an outrageous number. Look for the Mets to jump in here is they don't land their first choice which is Nolasco.It still will be obscene I'm thinking 4/$64.
Ubaldo-Not very interesting although once upon a time in Colorado he was. A return to the Rocky Mountains is not out of the question. I think teams will be reluctant to go more than 3/$42 and that might be tough to come by with compensation needed to be given up. Look at teams with a protected pick as possible options.
Rodney-Fernando should call the cops because the Rays picked his pocket big time for the last two years. No such luck this year he gets a big raise from Texas. 3/$27
Joe Nathan-Everyone says Tigers but I think the Tigers are looking for a guy they can give multi years to so that the position is sure for the next few years. I actually think Nathan lands with the Yankees on a 1/$9 with a vesting option that would take it up to $18.
Grant Balfour-How about the Tigers on a 2/$15
AJ Burnett-He's picky about where he wants to be. The Pirates say publicly they want him back but I don't believe they do. Definition of mercurial is this guy. I won't believe he retires until I see it. So while I have no idea where he will play I do see him playing on a 1/$15 deal.
Kuroda-I see no reason why he would leave NY. Possible the Dodgers bring him back but he gets a multi year deal this time 3/$51
Tim Timmy Hudson-This guy loves Atlanta, is 38 and coming off a severe ankle injury. I say he stays with Atlanta on a 1 Year Incentive laden deal 1/$8.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
GM Meetings Begin
The GM meetings begin tonight so let's take the opportunity to speculate the FA market from the top down Position players:
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Position By Position
(C) Ruiz-Solid Resign him you have no better options in the system and he is more valuable in staff ERA anyway. Kratz-Nice guy hard worker but I think its time to upgrade there. Ideally a left handed hitting catcher but if not Rupp will do.
Free Agent: Brian McCann offensively is an upgrade over Ruiz but again I pass. He is oft hurt, will cost more than he is worth and came up pretty small in the playoffs.
(1B)-I would simply platoon Howard/Ruf while exploring every opportunity to move Howard. Franco is on the way and my opinion is much like they moved Albert Pujols to 1B that's what they will do with Franco unless someone bowls them over with an offer for Asche.
(2B) Chase it is most nights with Cesar and Galvis as able back-ups. Down the road it might be Roman Quinn.
(3B) Asche for sure but Franco is waiting in the wings if someone of significance becomes available via trade. Essentially that is why you always take the best player available regardless of position. If Asche can land you an exciting right handed hitter that plays OF at a high level you would have to consider making that move but do it with caution. Asche is the type of kid that Ryne Sanberg was, that Utley was meaning the make-up might far exceed the talent.
(SS) Jimmy Jimmy Jimmy. You should have accepted a trade and at some point you might. Not because I don't like you, I happen to believe you are the best SS in franchise history. You make a move because you are such a polarizing figure in this town and because you could win another championship. It won't happen here for you.
JP Crawford is the future its just a matter of when. Is he Manny Machado where he could be up when he is 20? Roman Quinn is destined to move at this point and not because he has been horrible defensively at SS (he has) but because JP was the 16th pick in the draft. Galvis is a capable back-up but lacks the offensive prowess to be an everyday SS unless you surround him with multiple MVP type bats.
(LF) He is not on this team. It's not Ruf and Brown should be in RF. Find plug and play a dynamic right handed bat. They don't grow on trees but that is what scouts get paid to do and why GM's get big bucks to play fantasy with OPM.
(CF) Plenty of options here with Revere being the most obvious. I like Benny but again not a dynamic player because of his lack of power. When I think of CF I think of Tori Hunter in his Twins days, I think Adam Jones, I think McCutchen heck even Victorino. Cesar was decent in the field and I think he potentially develops some pop. I like that he hits from both sides of the plate and maybe you get away with him there if you have 25-30 HRS on both sides of him.
(RF) No question for me it should be Dom Brown. No Dom is never going to be an MVP he lacks the grit and swagger it takes to bring home that award but he is capable. He has power, he has a hit tool, he sees a lot of pitches and will take his walks. Average defensively yes but a plus arm.
(SP) Hamels/Lee is really all we have. Gonzalez is an unknown and Kendrick/Pettibone just aren't playoff caliber pitchers (see Tigers pitching staff) pitching is everything to win WS titles. Maybe Jesse Biddle becomes something near Lee and they should be looking to call him up in June 14 and get the development started.
Free Agents: Matt Garza should be a priority but health is a concern. If they are going to make a run at him they must make sure he is physically sound.
(BP) Papelbon is ok, Adams if healthy is ok, Diekman is ++. Ken Giles is a strong possibility with his 95+ MPH right arm but here is another guy that needs to throw strikes. Martin may flourish in a late inning role also so I see no need to expend any assets there in the off season.
(Bench) Frandsen,Galvis, Hernandez should all be automatic. Mayberry as well. I'll pass on Bernadina and look for a LH bat with more power.
For 2014 the team is an ace short of being in playoff consideration at least so I would exercise patience this off season and plan to acquire young talent. Possibly take advantage of teams needing to move salary. With another top flight draft pick in June contention is a few years away.
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Knock Knock
House Keeping...that's who is there!
Dubee the first shoe to drop. 9 Seasons is a long time and there is some thing to be said for a fresh voice. Change for the sake of change isn't always good but if they can bring in a quality guy with no preconceived notions about who these pitchers are it might be a step forward.
The Phillies finished even better than I had thought 73-89 and it looks like that will be good enough for the 7th overall pick in the draft. Obviously you can get a pretty good player there but also we can sign a Free Agent that received a qualifying offer without forfeiting our own draft pick.
The free agent class isn't much to get overly excited about. Sure there are some pieces out there that would help a team right on the edge of a championship but added to this roster at this time probably doesn't make sense.
If Pence got 5/$90 what do you thing guys like Choo and Ellsbury will command? Actually that is quite a steal for the Giants. Pence finished 13th in OPS among all OF last season and his career numbers suggest you can consistently count on him for 20-25 HR's and near 100 RBI. He's just a good player and a good kid.
Here is a name for you. How about Marlon Byrd finished 8th among all OF in OPS last season...8th and he hits from the right side.
Anyway back to the FA class. The Phillies are short in the rotation on paper unless Gonzalez turns out to be something special. You may consider adding Garza but word has just come out that he is damaged goods. Sure Hamels and Lee are good starting points and I would not completely rule out a trade of Lee this off season.
Enjoy the playoffs and we'll all watch with great anticipation how the off season unfolds.
Dubee the first shoe to drop. 9 Seasons is a long time and there is some thing to be said for a fresh voice. Change for the sake of change isn't always good but if they can bring in a quality guy with no preconceived notions about who these pitchers are it might be a step forward.
The Phillies finished even better than I had thought 73-89 and it looks like that will be good enough for the 7th overall pick in the draft. Obviously you can get a pretty good player there but also we can sign a Free Agent that received a qualifying offer without forfeiting our own draft pick.
The free agent class isn't much to get overly excited about. Sure there are some pieces out there that would help a team right on the edge of a championship but added to this roster at this time probably doesn't make sense.
If Pence got 5/$90 what do you thing guys like Choo and Ellsbury will command? Actually that is quite a steal for the Giants. Pence finished 13th in OPS among all OF last season and his career numbers suggest you can consistently count on him for 20-25 HR's and near 100 RBI. He's just a good player and a good kid.
Here is a name for you. How about Marlon Byrd finished 8th among all OF in OPS last season...8th and he hits from the right side.
Anyway back to the FA class. The Phillies are short in the rotation on paper unless Gonzalez turns out to be something special. You may consider adding Garza but word has just come out that he is damaged goods. Sure Hamels and Lee are good starting points and I would not completely rule out a trade of Lee this off season.
Enjoy the playoffs and we'll all watch with great anticipation how the off season unfolds.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
A New Philosphy
A bunch of SABR nerds wouldn't let go of an innocuous statement RAJ made some time ago about not caring about walks and wanting production. No doubt walks equal production but it certainly isn't the only way to have production.
Anyway it occurred to me as I watch Ryne and this group of players finishing out the season that the Phillies were definitely walking more and more disciplined at the plate so I looked it up. In the month of September the Phils are 5th in the league in OBP and 11th in BB.
In the month of August they were dead last in OBP and 26th in BB. So maybe just maybe the problem wasn't RAJ. Maybe it was the philosophy of the manager. In my opinion a good GM would never publicly embarrass his manager or a player. RAJ's statement that day was obviously counter intuitive and he knew it. I'm sure it is something he and Charlie battled over behind close doors on more than one occasion.
Pitching in my opinion will always be the path to the post season. The take away is this don't listen as much to what a GM says but rather what he does.
Anyway it occurred to me as I watch Ryne and this group of players finishing out the season that the Phillies were definitely walking more and more disciplined at the plate so I looked it up. In the month of September the Phils are 5th in the league in OBP and 11th in BB.
In the month of August they were dead last in OBP and 26th in BB. So maybe just maybe the problem wasn't RAJ. Maybe it was the philosophy of the manager. In my opinion a good GM would never publicly embarrass his manager or a player. RAJ's statement that day was obviously counter intuitive and he knew it. I'm sure it is something he and Charlie battled over behind close doors on more than one occasion.
Pitching in my opinion will always be the path to the post season. The take away is this don't listen as much to what a GM says but rather what he does.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Final Record Prediction
With 31 Games left to play and going through the schedule I'm going to say the Phitin's fight and finish 17-14 for a season record of 77-85.
For those that were hoping for a protected top 10 pick I kindly say don't hold your breath. As of last night I think we hold the 12th worst record and if the club performs as stated above it doesn't appear we will fall much (get a higher pick).
Ideally they continue to play good baseball but lose a few more than I predict.
Astros-44
Miami-49
Cubs-55
Brewers-57
Twins-57
Angels-58
Giants-58
Mets-58
Padres-59
Mariners-59
Blue Jays-59
Phillies-60
For those that were hoping for a protected top 10 pick I kindly say don't hold your breath. As of last night I think we hold the 12th worst record and if the club performs as stated above it doesn't appear we will fall much (get a higher pick).
Ideally they continue to play good baseball but lose a few more than I predict.
Astros-44
Miami-49
Cubs-55
Brewers-57
Twins-57
Angels-58
Giants-58
Mets-58
Padres-59
Mariners-59
Blue Jays-59
Phillies-60
Thursday, August 22, 2013
RYNO
Most fans old enough to remember know the story of Ryne Sandberg. My 21 soon to be 22 Y/O son said to me last night "who is Ryne Sandberg" so it got me to thinking. Ryne was my son's age when the Phillies traded him to the Cubs. He played 13 MLB games for the Phillies and 2,164 in a 16 Year career.
I explained Ryne was Chase Utley before there was Chase Utley. A quiet guy who played every game the right way. A guy that lacked exceptional tools but worked his butt off to get everything out of what he had.
I imagine he won't be any different as a manager. During his career Ryne walked at an 8% clip and struck out less than 14% of his PA's. One might guess his philosophy and approach to the game will have street cred with the young players coming up. Not many HOF players are talked about as being great managers but I'll say Ryne is not your ordinary HOF. Most would say he was a tweener and compiled good but not great numbers over a long career.
Now, having said that...great managers are made by having talented players. Ryne should make every effort to push the FO into giving him his kind of players. Let's watch closely and pay attention to what is done not what is said.
Last night the Phillies were down 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th to the Rockies. Kratz led off the inning with a great AB and wound up with a 2B. Ryne went to a pinch runner and Mayberry moved him to 3B on a chopper to the right side. Chooch came through with a double of his own. With 1 out the Rockies walked J-Roll to set up for a double play but Michael Young walked it off with a single to left. Just the way you draw it up if you are a manager.
I'd like to see Ryne get a 4 year contract to manage this club. I'd like him around for a kid like J.P Crawford, Asche and Franco to learn under.
I explained Ryne was Chase Utley before there was Chase Utley. A quiet guy who played every game the right way. A guy that lacked exceptional tools but worked his butt off to get everything out of what he had.
I imagine he won't be any different as a manager. During his career Ryne walked at an 8% clip and struck out less than 14% of his PA's. One might guess his philosophy and approach to the game will have street cred with the young players coming up. Not many HOF players are talked about as being great managers but I'll say Ryne is not your ordinary HOF. Most would say he was a tweener and compiled good but not great numbers over a long career.
Now, having said that...great managers are made by having talented players. Ryne should make every effort to push the FO into giving him his kind of players. Let's watch closely and pay attention to what is done not what is said.
Last night the Phillies were down 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th to the Rockies. Kratz led off the inning with a great AB and wound up with a 2B. Ryne went to a pinch runner and Mayberry moved him to 3B on a chopper to the right side. Chooch came through with a double of his own. With 1 out the Rockies walked J-Roll to set up for a double play but Michael Young walked it off with a single to left. Just the way you draw it up if you are a manager.
I'd like to see Ryne get a 4 year contract to manage this club. I'd like him around for a kid like J.P Crawford, Asche and Franco to learn under.
Monday, August 19, 2013
End of an Era
The Phillies said good bye to Charlie after 9 years of wonderful service. We wrote a while back that there had to be a way to let Charlie go with dignity. In the end I believe Charlie went on his terms. He obviously went to the front office and wanted to know, he wanted a decision to be made sooner rather than later. He wanted to be let go and thus the Sandberg era began as the Manuel era ended.
Charlie will have his rightful place in Phillies History. He will come back at some point in the near future and receive his Wall of Fame night. No need to feel sorry for Chuck. To those angry with the way he was let go I say be angry with his core players. Injuries aside the guys that supposedly had his back put the nails to the cross. The front office had every intention of letting him finish out the season provided the players did their part and played hard.
I believed in February and I believe now this 2013 team was designed to see if they could capture lightning in a bottle. If it worked out great and if not we were left with openings in a few areas to get younger and evaluate what we have in young talent. The future is not Utley, Rollins and Howard. Yes they will be here for a while longer but the real future is in Dom Brown, Catcher, 3B and another OF. A new core of players must rise from the ashes and create another era of winning baseball.
Guys like Asche, Ruf and Martin are getting long looks and all appear to be big league level players. None appear to be star caliber players that win MVP's and carry a team on their backs to a WS title. Amaro's job now is to identify those types and get them here.
Could it be Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford? Could it be the 2014 #1 pick? Time will tell and we will have a better sense once we see what they do with Ruiz and the off season FA market and a possible trade of Lee.
Charlie will have his rightful place in Phillies History. He will come back at some point in the near future and receive his Wall of Fame night. No need to feel sorry for Chuck. To those angry with the way he was let go I say be angry with his core players. Injuries aside the guys that supposedly had his back put the nails to the cross. The front office had every intention of letting him finish out the season provided the players did their part and played hard.
I believed in February and I believe now this 2013 team was designed to see if they could capture lightning in a bottle. If it worked out great and if not we were left with openings in a few areas to get younger and evaluate what we have in young talent. The future is not Utley, Rollins and Howard. Yes they will be here for a while longer but the real future is in Dom Brown, Catcher, 3B and another OF. A new core of players must rise from the ashes and create another era of winning baseball.
Guys like Asche, Ruf and Martin are getting long looks and all appear to be big league level players. None appear to be star caliber players that win MVP's and carry a team on their backs to a WS title. Amaro's job now is to identify those types and get them here.
Could it be Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford? Could it be the 2014 #1 pick? Time will tell and we will have a better sense once we see what they do with Ruiz and the off season FA market and a possible trade of Lee.
Friday, August 9, 2013
Ethan Martin and Cody Asche
Martin got his first win in MLB ball yesterday against the Cubs al beit he only went 5 Innings. 3 BB and 4 K's there is no doubt he has the stuff to get big league hitters out if he can cut down on the walks.
Asche with a magnificent performance got his first MLB HR on a 3-5 day with two RBI. Cody surely will report to ST as the everyday 3B for 2014.
Utley formerly announced after the game he signed an extension that would hopefully keep him in red pinstripes for the remainder of his career. He does possess a full no trade clause but you know how those things go. Chase is a model franchise player and will go down as the greatest 2B in Phillies history and one of the best 2B of all time. 26 doesn't say much but when he speaks he always says the right things. He is the kind of player you want your young guys coming up to be around and learning from.
It's not easy to win championships you need stars and MVP caliber seasons from multiple players just to get in that dance. And then you need a bunch of luck just ask the 2012 Tigers and the 2011 Phillies and countless other teams that led the league in wins and walked away with nothing.
On the Pharm J.P. Crawford our #1 pick this June is tearing it up. In 128 PA's he has a .480 OBP and a 1.017 OPS. Certainly he has a long way to go before we can say he will be a star in the bigs but essentially that is what the stats look like for future franchise players. They simply hit the ground running and never look back.
A name to watch: Venn Biter a fiery little red head out of Clarksville TN drafted in the 30th round. Venn had a scholarship to UAB, a two sport star in HS he also played PG on the basketball team. Baseball however is his deal and he pushed his sign until the last day. They think he can hit, get on base and go get it in the outfield and do it all with a little bit of swagger and grit. Good Luck Venn.
Asche with a magnificent performance got his first MLB HR on a 3-5 day with two RBI. Cody surely will report to ST as the everyday 3B for 2014.
Utley formerly announced after the game he signed an extension that would hopefully keep him in red pinstripes for the remainder of his career. He does possess a full no trade clause but you know how those things go. Chase is a model franchise player and will go down as the greatest 2B in Phillies history and one of the best 2B of all time. 26 doesn't say much but when he speaks he always says the right things. He is the kind of player you want your young guys coming up to be around and learning from.
It's not easy to win championships you need stars and MVP caliber seasons from multiple players just to get in that dance. And then you need a bunch of luck just ask the 2012 Tigers and the 2011 Phillies and countless other teams that led the league in wins and walked away with nothing.
On the Pharm J.P. Crawford our #1 pick this June is tearing it up. In 128 PA's he has a .480 OBP and a 1.017 OPS. Certainly he has a long way to go before we can say he will be a star in the bigs but essentially that is what the stats look like for future franchise players. They simply hit the ground running and never look back.
A name to watch: Venn Biter a fiery little red head out of Clarksville TN drafted in the 30th round. Venn had a scholarship to UAB, a two sport star in HS he also played PG on the basketball team. Baseball however is his deal and he pushed his sign until the last day. They think he can hit, get on base and go get it in the outfield and do it all with a little bit of swagger and grit. Good Luck Venn.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Its August 1st
And the dead line came and went. M Young and Lee are still Phillies and so is Papelbon. I'm not surprised with Papelbon I thought if he were going to be moved it would have gone down a few weeks ago. Young is a surprise as a veteran player on the last year of a deal I truly thought a professional hitter such as he would have landed with a contender. It could still happen I guess if he clears waivers or gets picked up by a team he is willing to go to (he does have no trade rights).
Lee was the one piece I thought we could have garnered a haul for. The BoSox were sitting right there with the prospects to land his services. Instead Cherington decided to go with Peavy a move I am betting backfires on them. The Sox produce offensively but if they intend to count on Buchholtz to be healthy and Peavy to be healthy and Lackey to hold up down the stretch they are feeling very lucky. The Rays are right there and their front 5 are the best in the league. Pitching usually wins.
Last night I was excited to watch the Phils face the Giants for one reason. Cody Asche made his MLB debut. A 4th round pick out of Nebraska the kid can hit a little bit. Mostly doubles power but adequate with 10-15 HR pop. He can flash some leather too. How quickly tho things went down hill. There are two types of bad teams. Those that are climbing the ladder and those that have reached the top and have no where to go but down.
This line-up needs serious help. It needs youth, it needs energy and it needs some swagger. Obviously this season could have gone one of two ways. Had Doc been Doc and Howard been Howard we might have been in the conversation come September. That gamble failed and as such we march on.
On the farm not much is on the horizon. Franco looks the part but there are scouts that question whether or not his approach will play at the next level. Advanced scouting and video in the league exposes weaknesses like no other level. Biddle is either wearing down or he is hurt. His last few outings were head scratchers.
Up next the non-waiver trades. I don't expect much to be there for us. Certainly the off season FA market is not going to help. Possibly if we finish so badly down the stretch that our pick becomes a protected pick we could sign an Ellsbury or Choo. Maybe upgrade the pitching and sign Garza would help just not at the expense of offense.
Lee was the one piece I thought we could have garnered a haul for. The BoSox were sitting right there with the prospects to land his services. Instead Cherington decided to go with Peavy a move I am betting backfires on them. The Sox produce offensively but if they intend to count on Buchholtz to be healthy and Peavy to be healthy and Lackey to hold up down the stretch they are feeling very lucky. The Rays are right there and their front 5 are the best in the league. Pitching usually wins.
Last night I was excited to watch the Phils face the Giants for one reason. Cody Asche made his MLB debut. A 4th round pick out of Nebraska the kid can hit a little bit. Mostly doubles power but adequate with 10-15 HR pop. He can flash some leather too. How quickly tho things went down hill. There are two types of bad teams. Those that are climbing the ladder and those that have reached the top and have no where to go but down.
This line-up needs serious help. It needs youth, it needs energy and it needs some swagger. Obviously this season could have gone one of two ways. Had Doc been Doc and Howard been Howard we might have been in the conversation come September. That gamble failed and as such we march on.
On the farm not much is on the horizon. Franco looks the part but there are scouts that question whether or not his approach will play at the next level. Advanced scouting and video in the league exposes weaknesses like no other level. Biddle is either wearing down or he is hurt. His last few outings were head scratchers.
Up next the non-waiver trades. I don't expect much to be there for us. Certainly the off season FA market is not going to help. Possibly if we finish so badly down the stretch that our pick becomes a protected pick we could sign an Ellsbury or Choo. Maybe upgrade the pitching and sign Garza would help just not at the expense of offense.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Projected Salary 2014
Any exercise in deciding what the Phillies should do going forward, I imagine, begins with an evaluation of payroll for 2014:
Hamels-$22.5
Howard-$25
Lee-$25
Papelbon-$13
Rollins-$11
Adams-$6
Brown-$500K
Revere-$500K
Known is roughly $104 Million tied up in 8 players. Unknowns would be Utley and Ruiz, Kendrick and then a bunch of role players.
A 25 man roster and you need to allocate the remaining budget to 17 players, 4 of which will be starting position players C, 3B, 2B and RF. 3 of Which will be starting rotation behind Lee and Hamels.
The 2014 F/A market is thin. Garza is supposed to hit the market unless the team he gets traded to locks him up. Ellsbury is probably the top name available in the OF both are likely to get AAV deals upwards of $18 Million. Choo will be another name to watch but I'm not sure either is a likely fit for us. I see us needing a right handed hitting RF with .850+ OPS.
We'll see how it shakes out!
Hamels-$22.5
Howard-$25
Lee-$25
Papelbon-$13
Rollins-$11
Adams-$6
Brown-$500K
Revere-$500K
Known is roughly $104 Million tied up in 8 players. Unknowns would be Utley and Ruiz, Kendrick and then a bunch of role players.
A 25 man roster and you need to allocate the remaining budget to 17 players, 4 of which will be starting position players C, 3B, 2B and RF. 3 of Which will be starting rotation behind Lee and Hamels.
The 2014 F/A market is thin. Garza is supposed to hit the market unless the team he gets traded to locks him up. Ellsbury is probably the top name available in the OF both are likely to get AAV deals upwards of $18 Million. Choo will be another name to watch but I'm not sure either is a likely fit for us. I see us needing a right handed hitting RF with .850+ OPS.
We'll see how it shakes out!
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Here we go! 13
Days until the trade deadline and 66 games remaining. The Phillies would need to go 42-24 a .636 winning percentage down the stretch to win 90 games. Sure Charlie has done that before but with teams on a different trajectory than this one.
The propaganda from Amaro is that we are buyers not sellers. Dave Montgomery said today its too early to tell. The team sits now with a number of rentals: Utley, Ruiz, Michael Young, and Delmon Young none of which are lighting the stat sheets on fire to a degree where you would say a team in contention would overpay for 3 months of their service and all of which have question marks in their game or injury history or both.
The real assets on the team would be Cliff Lee and Oucho Cinco. Amaro has made it a point many times to say Lee is a guy we build around. My opinion is he would have to be blown away with an offer to move him. Papelbon on the other hand is a candidate for sure. Both Boston and Detroit could use an experienced closer at the back end of their BP and both can afford his remaining $45.5 in salary but would either of them absorb that amount of money and give up a top flight prospect? I don't think so not when Papelbon has struggled of late. Timing in life is everything and unfortunately for RAJ there appears to be other less expensive options out there.
I often say its better to be lucky than good and RAJ for all of his effort has been neither. An optimist might say he is at least due for some luck but Revere's injury seems to indicate otherwise. Brown is cooling off and with the lack of talent around him would suggest a mediocre finish to an otherwise fine first half is in the cards.
So here we are in mediocre land. Not horrible enough and without good assets to sell and not good enough and without a deep enough farm to buy. I would guess a team looking for cash or cash relief might have something of value to give you. Maybe a piece to sure up the BP but offense and defense are still going to loom large in their sprint to the finish.
The propaganda from Amaro is that we are buyers not sellers. Dave Montgomery said today its too early to tell. The team sits now with a number of rentals: Utley, Ruiz, Michael Young, and Delmon Young none of which are lighting the stat sheets on fire to a degree where you would say a team in contention would overpay for 3 months of their service and all of which have question marks in their game or injury history or both.
The real assets on the team would be Cliff Lee and Oucho Cinco. Amaro has made it a point many times to say Lee is a guy we build around. My opinion is he would have to be blown away with an offer to move him. Papelbon on the other hand is a candidate for sure. Both Boston and Detroit could use an experienced closer at the back end of their BP and both can afford his remaining $45.5 in salary but would either of them absorb that amount of money and give up a top flight prospect? I don't think so not when Papelbon has struggled of late. Timing in life is everything and unfortunately for RAJ there appears to be other less expensive options out there.
I often say its better to be lucky than good and RAJ for all of his effort has been neither. An optimist might say he is at least due for some luck but Revere's injury seems to indicate otherwise. Brown is cooling off and with the lack of talent around him would suggest a mediocre finish to an otherwise fine first half is in the cards.
So here we are in mediocre land. Not horrible enough and without good assets to sell and not good enough and without a deep enough farm to buy. I would guess a team looking for cash or cash relief might have something of value to give you. Maybe a piece to sure up the BP but offense and defense are still going to loom large in their sprint to the finish.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Contender or Pretender
Is it rhetoric, GM speak or something else? RAJ has to know this team has no chance of contending even if they snagged the 5 playoff spot. Nearly impossible if you look at the NL Central.
Lots of chatter the Tigers are in on Papelbon...done give me Castellanos straight up and I make him my everyday left fielder today and move Brown to right field. Even if Castellanos isn't available Avisail Garcia would be. I don't kick in money for Avi, I would for Castellanos. Nick is a legit middle of the line-up hitter and can play a solid LF.
Next up move Michael Young to a team that really needs him and call up Maikel Franco in the same vein that the other teams like the Orioles brought up Machado. Will he struggle? Of Course but players are players and not to many would disagree that Franco is a big league player. Oh by the way remember a call up by the name of Howard. My middle line-up of the future is now Castellanos/Brown/Franco.
As for the off season it's Ryne, Qualifying offers to Chase and Ruiz and go hard after Matt Garza. Revere isn't going to get any worse and he might not get any better but at worst he would have value as a 4th OF. Roman Quinn our #3 prospect coming into the season has struggled at SS and you just drafted JP Crawford with the 16th pick. Move Roman now to CF and see if he can be ready in 2 or 3 seasons.
You probably cannot move Howard but that's no reason to stunt the growth of the next wave of core players and his embarrassing salary should not dictate he bats 4th.
Lots of chatter the Tigers are in on Papelbon...done give me Castellanos straight up and I make him my everyday left fielder today and move Brown to right field. Even if Castellanos isn't available Avisail Garcia would be. I don't kick in money for Avi, I would for Castellanos. Nick is a legit middle of the line-up hitter and can play a solid LF.
Next up move Michael Young to a team that really needs him and call up Maikel Franco in the same vein that the other teams like the Orioles brought up Machado. Will he struggle? Of Course but players are players and not to many would disagree that Franco is a big league player. Oh by the way remember a call up by the name of Howard. My middle line-up of the future is now Castellanos/Brown/Franco.
As for the off season it's Ryne, Qualifying offers to Chase and Ruiz and go hard after Matt Garza. Revere isn't going to get any worse and he might not get any better but at worst he would have value as a 4th OF. Roman Quinn our #3 prospect coming into the season has struggled at SS and you just drafted JP Crawford with the 16th pick. Move Roman now to CF and see if he can be ready in 2 or 3 seasons.
You probably cannot move Howard but that's no reason to stunt the growth of the next wave of core players and his embarrassing salary should not dictate he bats 4th.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Finding Dignity
For all intensive purposes the Phillies are out of the hunt. That's conjecture on my part sure. The question now is in light of the moves that need to be made for the better of the franchise how does one find dignity for the manager with the most wins and a WS title in Franchise History?
How does one go about replacing the best SS in franchise history and quite possibly deciding to move on from the best 2B in franchise history? Those are not easy decisions for any franchise let alone one that just a few years ago led the entire MLB in wins.
You look at the Cardinals and see how Mozeliak caught a few breaks. First LaRussa made the decision easy by retiring and then Pujols and Arte Moreno made it even easier by floating a ridiculous contract offer at Albert. Quite simply it was easy for the Cards fan base to accept his departure.
RAJ won't be so lucky. His hand will be forced. I don't imagine too many fans will begrudge him for replacing Charlie with Ryne. Utley and Rollins on the other hand will be a slippery slope. Rollins less so than 26.
For all the doom and gloom RAJ is positioned nicely to rebuild. Lee is marketable and would return major league ready talent. Probably a teams best right handed OF prospect and a high level pitching prospect. Papelbon as well could return a nice piece.
By all accounts the Phillies had a nice draft and they have two really good prospects in Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco, a left handed starter with a 1.132 WHIP and 10.9K/9 in AA and Franco a 3B prospect at 20 in High A Clearwater.
Things are ugly now but let's see how the GM plays his hand because I believe he has a good one!
How does one go about replacing the best SS in franchise history and quite possibly deciding to move on from the best 2B in franchise history? Those are not easy decisions for any franchise let alone one that just a few years ago led the entire MLB in wins.
You look at the Cardinals and see how Mozeliak caught a few breaks. First LaRussa made the decision easy by retiring and then Pujols and Arte Moreno made it even easier by floating a ridiculous contract offer at Albert. Quite simply it was easy for the Cards fan base to accept his departure.
RAJ won't be so lucky. His hand will be forced. I don't imagine too many fans will begrudge him for replacing Charlie with Ryne. Utley and Rollins on the other hand will be a slippery slope. Rollins less so than 26.
For all the doom and gloom RAJ is positioned nicely to rebuild. Lee is marketable and would return major league ready talent. Probably a teams best right handed OF prospect and a high level pitching prospect. Papelbon as well could return a nice piece.
By all accounts the Phillies had a nice draft and they have two really good prospects in Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco, a left handed starter with a 1.132 WHIP and 10.9K/9 in AA and Franco a 3B prospect at 20 in High A Clearwater.
Things are ugly now but let's see how the GM plays his hand because I believe he has a good one!
Monday, June 3, 2013
The Calendar Turns June
And the Phillies are 3 Games under .500, 7.5 Back of the Braves for the division and 8 Back for a Wild Card Birth.
Dom Brown is red hot with 16 HR's and an OPS of .895 without walking once in the month of May. A lot of chatter these days about how Brown was handled back in 2011 a lot of revisionist history but such is life in professional baseball.
To be fair the 2011 team went on to win 102 games they clearly were operating in a window where they had a legit shot at their 2nd WS in 4 years. Dom at that time while having decent numbers clearly looked like a player that still had some things to learn about being a professional.
There are times when that teaching should be done at that level and times when it should not. That year was the latter.
Moving on, Cole Hamels worst season in WHIP was 09 1.286 which followed his 08 WS MVP season where he logged a staggering 227 IP. This season the anomaly is 1.338 compared to his career average 1.148. The K rate is still there at 8/9 so this funk must be a command issue and issue of focus.
Decisions ahead loom large. Utley is still out with his oblique and Ruiz still out with a hamstring. Delmon is coming up on 100 AB's and his OBP and OPS numbers are bad, really bad which shines a bigger spot light on how bad he is defensively. I don't see this experiment lasting much longer. Lee and Papelbon are the guys to keep an eye on. Both are pitching very well and figure to be hot commodities at the dead line with strong potential to return big league ready prospects.
I look for the F/O to return a legit right handed bat prospect that can play either right or left now. I think that can be obtained with Paps. I'd be reluctant to move Lee without getting a haul in return.
Cesar Hernandez made his big league debut going 5/19 with 1 XBH.
Dom Brown is red hot with 16 HR's and an OPS of .895 without walking once in the month of May. A lot of chatter these days about how Brown was handled back in 2011 a lot of revisionist history but such is life in professional baseball.
To be fair the 2011 team went on to win 102 games they clearly were operating in a window where they had a legit shot at their 2nd WS in 4 years. Dom at that time while having decent numbers clearly looked like a player that still had some things to learn about being a professional.
There are times when that teaching should be done at that level and times when it should not. That year was the latter.
Moving on, Cole Hamels worst season in WHIP was 09 1.286 which followed his 08 WS MVP season where he logged a staggering 227 IP. This season the anomaly is 1.338 compared to his career average 1.148. The K rate is still there at 8/9 so this funk must be a command issue and issue of focus.
Decisions ahead loom large. Utley is still out with his oblique and Ruiz still out with a hamstring. Delmon is coming up on 100 AB's and his OBP and OPS numbers are bad, really bad which shines a bigger spot light on how bad he is defensively. I don't see this experiment lasting much longer. Lee and Papelbon are the guys to keep an eye on. Both are pitching very well and figure to be hot commodities at the dead line with strong potential to return big league ready prospects.
I look for the F/O to return a legit right handed bat prospect that can play either right or left now. I think that can be obtained with Paps. I'd be reluctant to move Lee without getting a haul in return.
Cesar Hernandez made his big league debut going 5/19 with 1 XBH.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Run Differential What Does it mean
Stat geeks love run differential. Basically if you score more runs than you allow you win games right? Let's dig: Currently the Cardinals are 29-16 and +57 which is good enough for the best record in baseball only slightly. Texas is 29-17 and +46.
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
News and Notes...Do's and Don'ts
News: We're 19-21 and 3.5 back of the Bravo's. Dom Brown is tied for the team lead in HR's with 7. Chase also has 7 Ryan is sitting at 6. The BP was flat out nasty last night. DeFratus was throwing some cheese and his sawing off Reynolds I believe was better than a K in that situation.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
Monday, May 6, 2013
Who's Next?
So my Doc prediction came to fruition a few weeks late. You generally don't decline that steeply even at Docs age without some type of physical issue. Just my opinion and I could be wrong. Having said that I am not happy about his fate. I've enjoyed watching one of the best right handed pitchers to play the game finish his career as a Phillie.
I'm sure we will always remember that no hitter he threw against the Reds in the playoffs and just the shear competiveness with which he took the hill.
Moving on because baseball as in life waits for no one, who should fill his spot in the rotation? Well you do have Lannan coming back at some point which means Pettibone likely stays provided he continues to hold his own.
Biddle is truly the best pitching prospect we have had in the system since Cole Hamels. Consider Cole pitched his first big league game as a Phillie having only pitch 201 Minor League innings and only one minor league season having pitched more than 100. Cole was 22 when he got the call and he went 132 IP that season with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of near 10.
Cole's change-up was clearly an advanced pitch and Biddle doesn't possess such a pitch. His Curve Ball is above average and his FB command and Velocity are decent. Say more like Lee than Hamels. It is not this regime's MO to bring up a young talent but if you ask me he is the most ready of the bunch.
Adam Morgan on the other hand is the more likely candidate. Not quite the upside as Biddle he is older and already doing well at AAA. The one thing that potentially could mean Ethan Martinis the guy is that when Lannan does come back someone must go back down.
Ethan Martin is that type of pitcher. Martin has electric stuff and if it wasn't for his BB rate he might be in the majors right now. Big League managers don't tolerate walks no matter how good your stuff is. Again the premise is if you know Lannan will force someone back down they may opt for the guy that absolutely needs more work in the minors but has the stuff to compete.
In my mind Morgan and Biddle are ready now. There is only so much you learn in the minors. Randy Wolf is another good example of a pitcher that made his debut at 22 and then went on to have a pretty successful career.
I'm sure we will always remember that no hitter he threw against the Reds in the playoffs and just the shear competiveness with which he took the hill.
Moving on because baseball as in life waits for no one, who should fill his spot in the rotation? Well you do have Lannan coming back at some point which means Pettibone likely stays provided he continues to hold his own.
Biddle is truly the best pitching prospect we have had in the system since Cole Hamels. Consider Cole pitched his first big league game as a Phillie having only pitch 201 Minor League innings and only one minor league season having pitched more than 100. Cole was 22 when he got the call and he went 132 IP that season with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of near 10.
Cole's change-up was clearly an advanced pitch and Biddle doesn't possess such a pitch. His Curve Ball is above average and his FB command and Velocity are decent. Say more like Lee than Hamels. It is not this regime's MO to bring up a young talent but if you ask me he is the most ready of the bunch.
Adam Morgan on the other hand is the more likely candidate. Not quite the upside as Biddle he is older and already doing well at AAA. The one thing that potentially could mean Ethan Martinis the guy is that when Lannan does come back someone must go back down.
Ethan Martin is that type of pitcher. Martin has electric stuff and if it wasn't for his BB rate he might be in the majors right now. Big League managers don't tolerate walks no matter how good your stuff is. Again the premise is if you know Lannan will force someone back down they may opt for the guy that absolutely needs more work in the minors but has the stuff to compete.
In my mind Morgan and Biddle are ready now. There is only so much you learn in the minors. Randy Wolf is another good example of a pitcher that made his debut at 22 and then went on to have a pretty successful career.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
The Full Squad
Last night marked the first night Charlie had the entire line-up he planned on in the start of Spring Training. Delmon Young activated from the DL batted 5th and neatly hit a HR in his first AB as a Phillie.
Unfortunately Halladay got rocked with 2 run bombs before he gave way to Durbin who continued to fuel the Indians Line-up.
Not many positives going on in the Org right now with the exception of say Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco but neither seem to figure in any kind of help for the big club this season. It's once been said that every team is going to win 60 and lose 60 which means its what you do with the remaining 42 Games that defines a season.
I heard Ruben interviewed on the Fanatic yesterday. I'll paraphrase his answer to the question who's fault is it when these young bullpen arms don't come up and get the job done "well I'll say it's the players fault" Ruben said. There is some truth to that for sure. After all these kids worked their whole lives to reach this level, when they get a shot they have to get the job done.
The GM, the Manager, the pitching coach, the minor league instructors cannot go out and throw the ball for them!
Unfortunately Halladay got rocked with 2 run bombs before he gave way to Durbin who continued to fuel the Indians Line-up.
Not many positives going on in the Org right now with the exception of say Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco but neither seem to figure in any kind of help for the big club this season. It's once been said that every team is going to win 60 and lose 60 which means its what you do with the remaining 42 Games that defines a season.
I heard Ruben interviewed on the Fanatic yesterday. I'll paraphrase his answer to the question who's fault is it when these young bullpen arms don't come up and get the job done "well I'll say it's the players fault" Ruben said. There is some truth to that for sure. After all these kids worked their whole lives to reach this level, when they get a shot they have to get the job done.
The GM, the Manager, the pitching coach, the minor league instructors cannot go out and throw the ball for them!
Monday, April 29, 2013
The Return of Chooch
Coincided with Hamels getting his first win of the 2013 season. Odd in and of itself. Also possibly a metaphor of things to come. Carlos will stabilize both the Line-Up and the pitching staff. He is that good.
My Halladay prediction did not come true which is a solid. I did not think he would make it out of April without going on the DL to go down and work on mechanical issues. The fact that he is still here provides a glimmer of hope this club can get to 90 wins.
The All Star break is a long way away and the trade deadline even longer. The only prediction I can make is this. If they are in the hunt they stand pat with the club they have and this group of veterans will be given a chance to compete. They will not trade prospects for veterans.
I do believe they are resolved to get younger after this season regardless of how good they are playing come July.
A much needed night off tonight after sweeping the Mets before heading off to Cleveland. The May schedule is a mixed bag of really good and really bad teams. I am looking for 16-12 record for the month of May which would put them at 28-26.
My Halladay prediction did not come true which is a solid. I did not think he would make it out of April without going on the DL to go down and work on mechanical issues. The fact that he is still here provides a glimmer of hope this club can get to 90 wins.
The All Star break is a long way away and the trade deadline even longer. The only prediction I can make is this. If they are in the hunt they stand pat with the club they have and this group of veterans will be given a chance to compete. They will not trade prospects for veterans.
I do believe they are resolved to get younger after this season regardless of how good they are playing come July.
A much needed night off tonight after sweeping the Mets before heading off to Cleveland. The May schedule is a mixed bag of really good and really bad teams. I am looking for 16-12 record for the month of May which would put them at 28-26.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Grading Ruben
Ruben takes a lot of heat for not being an advanced metrics guy. I wanted to do my own exercise of evaluating his moves big and small
The A Moves:
1. Getting Doc Halladay
2. Getting Cliff Lee the first time
3. Keeping Cole
4. Getting Cliff Lee the second time
5. Extending Jimmy
6. Mike Adams
The B moves:
1. Trading Lee to Seattle-Aumont is proving to be a quality arm in the BP and the fact that we turned around and resigned Lee gives the deal better consideration.
2. Trading Hunter Pence-Joseph was fair return with good upside
3. Michael Young-Only paying $6 Million 1 Year Deal however he didn't need to give up Bonilla
4. Ty Wigginton-Forget that he was horrible on paper it was a solid move
5. Laynce Nix-Forget that he injured himself in 12 again on paper solid move
6. Victorino Trade-Ethan Martin has real big league stuff if he finds a way to stop walking batters he is a front line starter.
The C Moves
1. Extending Howard-At the time I thought he should have waited. The price would have come down or we would have moved on.
2. Trading for Hunter Pence-That deal should have stopped at Cosart and Singleton it didn't need to include Santana regardless of what Santana becomes
3. Papelbon-Great player but better vision could have got you Rodney at a much lower cost
4. Roy Oswalt-I gave this move a C because had he just signed Lee it wasn't necessary.
5. Lannan-Not a bad sign at $1.5 for a 5th starter on a 1 year deal
6. Revere-It's early and probably not fair to put it this low but how else can you grade it today!
The D Moves
1. Chad Qualls-Hard to call this a D move because he cost nothing
2. Chad Durbin-It just wasn't necessary with DeFratus, Aumont and the Adams sign
3. D. Young-I think its pretty obvious the guy can no longer play the OF not to mention he may be the least liked guy in baseball since Milton Bradley. But at $750K still not an F sign.
I really don't see any F moves. Maybe those are the moves he didn't make. Beltran for example would look really good in RF for us right now and last year in LF. I don't really have strong opinion on either the Polanco sign or the Ibanez sign. Both older players that made decent contributions while they were here.
The A Moves:
1. Getting Doc Halladay
2. Getting Cliff Lee the first time
3. Keeping Cole
4. Getting Cliff Lee the second time
5. Extending Jimmy
6. Mike Adams
The B moves:
1. Trading Lee to Seattle-Aumont is proving to be a quality arm in the BP and the fact that we turned around and resigned Lee gives the deal better consideration.
2. Trading Hunter Pence-Joseph was fair return with good upside
3. Michael Young-Only paying $6 Million 1 Year Deal however he didn't need to give up Bonilla
4. Ty Wigginton-Forget that he was horrible on paper it was a solid move
5. Laynce Nix-Forget that he injured himself in 12 again on paper solid move
6. Victorino Trade-Ethan Martin has real big league stuff if he finds a way to stop walking batters he is a front line starter.
The C Moves
1. Extending Howard-At the time I thought he should have waited. The price would have come down or we would have moved on.
2. Trading for Hunter Pence-That deal should have stopped at Cosart and Singleton it didn't need to include Santana regardless of what Santana becomes
3. Papelbon-Great player but better vision could have got you Rodney at a much lower cost
4. Roy Oswalt-I gave this move a C because had he just signed Lee it wasn't necessary.
5. Lannan-Not a bad sign at $1.5 for a 5th starter on a 1 year deal
6. Revere-It's early and probably not fair to put it this low but how else can you grade it today!
The D Moves
1. Chad Qualls-Hard to call this a D move because he cost nothing
2. Chad Durbin-It just wasn't necessary with DeFratus, Aumont and the Adams sign
3. D. Young-I think its pretty obvious the guy can no longer play the OF not to mention he may be the least liked guy in baseball since Milton Bradley. But at $750K still not an F sign.
I really don't see any F moves. Maybe those are the moves he didn't make. Beltran for example would look really good in RF for us right now and last year in LF. I don't really have strong opinion on either the Polanco sign or the Ibanez sign. Both older players that made decent contributions while they were here.
Jeff Locke or Sandy Koufax
The Phillies have always had a tendency to make young starters look better than they really are. Last night was no exception. Cole pitched his A$$ off and deserved a better out come but all the offense could muster was 4 hits.
The inning that epitomizes the Phils struggles happened when Mayberry led off with a triple and Brown followed with a HBP. Revere comes up and swings at the first pitch hitting a weak ground ball to Inge. Mayberry was goin on contact and the play at home wasn't even close.
Kratz ended the rally with a DP and there you had it. Not to take anything away from Locke he pitched a decent game but no where near the performance that Cole put up. The Phillies offense with the exception of a few players continues to get themselves out. They swing at way to many pitches out of the strike zone and even in a cripple count they rarely square up a ball.
Again I am sure they are waiting on the line-up to be complete with Ruiz coming off suspension and D. Young rehabbing in Clearwater. While I think Young might help offensively I have major doubt he can play adequately in the OF.
At 9-12 the Phitins should aim to finish April at .500 or better. They need to take the series with the Bucs tonight and move on to Citi Field and take 2 of 3 from the Mets. Doable.
In other notes Biddle k'd 16 of 24 batters faced the other night. We all know he is the numero uno prospect in the system at age 21 in Reading he is making a case to be in Philly by 2014!
The inning that epitomizes the Phils struggles happened when Mayberry led off with a triple and Brown followed with a HBP. Revere comes up and swings at the first pitch hitting a weak ground ball to Inge. Mayberry was goin on contact and the play at home wasn't even close.
Kratz ended the rally with a DP and there you had it. Not to take anything away from Locke he pitched a decent game but no where near the performance that Cole put up. The Phillies offense with the exception of a few players continues to get themselves out. They swing at way to many pitches out of the strike zone and even in a cripple count they rarely square up a ball.
Again I am sure they are waiting on the line-up to be complete with Ruiz coming off suspension and D. Young rehabbing in Clearwater. While I think Young might help offensively I have major doubt he can play adequately in the OF.
At 9-12 the Phitins should aim to finish April at .500 or better. They need to take the series with the Bucs tonight and move on to Citi Field and take 2 of 3 from the Mets. Doable.
In other notes Biddle k'd 16 of 24 batters faced the other night. We all know he is the numero uno prospect in the system at age 21 in Reading he is making a case to be in Philly by 2014!
Monday, April 15, 2013
12 Games In
The good-Defensively the Phillies have been pretty good. M Young is a little better than we thought, Revere has been as advertised and Dom Brown is doing pretty well in LF. Offensively 26 is proving himself healthy and Michael Young is still the professional hitter we saw in TX all those years. The BP outside of Durbin is doing it's job. Lannan has been a good 5th starter, Lee has been a shut down type ace and I think we all know Cole is fine and will pitch deep into games.
The Bad-Is Charlie smarter than we give him credit for? I ask because he had questions all along about whether or not Revere should lead off. He has stuck with Ben in that role maybe as an "in your face public opinion" demonstration that Jimmy is still the best person for the job. Brown needs to do a better job of getting on base. His eye was a major skill, he rarely swung at pitches outside the zone and took his walks accordingly. Early on his OBP is sub .300 that's not good and that's not his game.
Dom has the tools to be a near .300 hitter with power. He needs to not accept being average if the teams plans on contending for a play off birth.
Finally 2 of 3 from the Marlins is bad if you see this club making the playoffs and having any type of a chance to win a playoff series. A .500 record 6-6 heading into a 4 game set with the Reds. Nothing in September is (usually) as it is in April and the real evaluation of this team begins with Ruiz and D Young returning to the line-up later this month.
The Bad-Is Charlie smarter than we give him credit for? I ask because he had questions all along about whether or not Revere should lead off. He has stuck with Ben in that role maybe as an "in your face public opinion" demonstration that Jimmy is still the best person for the job. Brown needs to do a better job of getting on base. His eye was a major skill, he rarely swung at pitches outside the zone and took his walks accordingly. Early on his OBP is sub .300 that's not good and that's not his game.
Dom has the tools to be a near .300 hitter with power. He needs to not accept being average if the teams plans on contending for a play off birth.
Finally 2 of 3 from the Marlins is bad if you see this club making the playoffs and having any type of a chance to win a playoff series. A .500 record 6-6 heading into a 4 game set with the Reds. Nothing in September is (usually) as it is in April and the real evaluation of this team begins with Ruiz and D Young returning to the line-up later this month.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Let's go to Miami
2 of 3 from the Met's. Cliff Lee is pitching to his check and Michael Young is flashing the offensive prowess that made him a perennial all star. This club can make a big statement by going on the road and sweeping the Marlins in their own park.
Yes the Marlins are bad....really bad but the Phillies are merely mediocre next to the top clubs they will contend with in the NL so sweeps of teams like the Marlins and Astros are completely necessary. We finish out the month with a mixed bag, away at the Reds, home for 4 against the Cards, 4 with the Pirates and then away at the Mets. I'd have a lot of confidence in this club if they can go 12-5 or 11-6 during this stretch.
At some point Delmon Young will make his way north. Ruiz will be eligible to come back 4/28 and the line-up could look much different. Revere hasn't done much to prove he can be an every day lead off hitting .211 with a .264 OBP whiles Rollins is hitting .311/.350. The return of those players make for a natural re-shuffling of the batting order:
Rollins
M Young
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Brown
D. Young
Revere
Yes the Marlins are bad....really bad but the Phillies are merely mediocre next to the top clubs they will contend with in the NL so sweeps of teams like the Marlins and Astros are completely necessary. We finish out the month with a mixed bag, away at the Reds, home for 4 against the Cards, 4 with the Pirates and then away at the Mets. I'd have a lot of confidence in this club if they can go 12-5 or 11-6 during this stretch.
At some point Delmon Young will make his way north. Ruiz will be eligible to come back 4/28 and the line-up could look much different. Revere hasn't done much to prove he can be an every day lead off hitting .211 with a .264 OBP whiles Rollins is hitting .311/.350. The return of those players make for a natural re-shuffling of the batting order:
Rollins
M Young
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Brown
D. Young
Revere
Monday, April 8, 2013
That Sucked!
The Royals came to town a much improved roster yes but we didn't even face Big James Shields and still managed to lose 2 of 3. Not a recipe for a good club. While still early the Phils are 2-4 with the Met's coming to town tonight.
Halladay gets his second start against a very good counter part in Harvey. Harvey has the kind of stuff Roy used to have. This should be a good test for our line-up and may get the left handed hitters in our line-up going.
Lord knows we will probably need to score 6 or 7 runs to be in this thing in the 9th. Two things need major improvement for this series. First Revere needs to be on base and Howard needs to get back to the approach that gave us all hope in Spring that he would be a more selective hitter.
Halladay gets his second start against a very good counter part in Harvey. Harvey has the kind of stuff Roy used to have. This should be a good test for our line-up and may get the left handed hitters in our line-up going.
Lord knows we will probably need to score 6 or 7 runs to be in this thing in the 9th. Two things need major improvement for this series. First Revere needs to be on base and Howard needs to get back to the approach that gave us all hope in Spring that he would be a more selective hitter.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
2 Games In
...and we are 0-2. I would have said we'd be 1-1. As I said on the 28th of March Halladay is a problem. A sure fire HOF can be a sad thing to watch when his stuff finally leaves him.
All is not lost but I hope there are contingency plans in the FO. Amaro and his staff need to start exercising trade options and evaluating FA possibilities to vault themselves back into a legit WS contender.
WS teams tend to have a few common threads the Phillies lack. For starters you tend to see a power starter from the right on staff. That was Halladay but no more. Cole and Lee fill the lefty side of a WS starting rotation nicely. Not much is on the FA horizon...Garza possibly!
Next you need a MVP type in the middle of your order. Think Cabrera, Posey type players. They don't grow on trees and rarely hit the FA market in their prime. You have to get lucky or take a chance or both in the trade market.
And finally you have a young player come up and assert themselves into a starting role. Utley did this many moons ago, Werth came into his own in pin stripes and so on. The Phillies hold the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft generally not a place to get a sure fire star that can move quickly to your MLB roster but if things fall right could be an impact player in 2-3 years.
MLB baseball is a true parity sport. There is no salary cap and multiple dimensions to improve your club if you have the type of budget and market that the Phillies have. When you look at the roster look at all of the contracts expiring at the end of the season starting with Manuel.
All is not lost but I hope there are contingency plans in the FO. Amaro and his staff need to start exercising trade options and evaluating FA possibilities to vault themselves back into a legit WS contender.
WS teams tend to have a few common threads the Phillies lack. For starters you tend to see a power starter from the right on staff. That was Halladay but no more. Cole and Lee fill the lefty side of a WS starting rotation nicely. Not much is on the FA horizon...Garza possibly!
Next you need a MVP type in the middle of your order. Think Cabrera, Posey type players. They don't grow on trees and rarely hit the FA market in their prime. You have to get lucky or take a chance or both in the trade market.
And finally you have a young player come up and assert themselves into a starting role. Utley did this many moons ago, Werth came into his own in pin stripes and so on. The Phillies hold the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft generally not a place to get a sure fire star that can move quickly to your MLB roster but if things fall right could be an impact player in 2-3 years.
MLB baseball is a true parity sport. There is no salary cap and multiple dimensions to improve your club if you have the type of budget and market that the Phillies have. When you look at the roster look at all of the contracts expiring at the end of the season starting with Manuel.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Opening Day
Opening day is finally upon us. I have no reservations that this team will be in the hunt far more and far longer than they were in 2012.
I do have reservations that the Starting Pitching can hold up as a whole with the better line-ups (Nats, Braves, Reds, Tigers) but then we do have the Marlins and Mets in our own division so things may even out. Every season will have it's share of unpredictable injuries, break-outs and break downs so let's play 162 and see who is left standing.
Bold predictions are tired in my opinion. Every network and pundit does them. I will only say I think the over under on wins for the 2013 club is 90, predicated on Halladay getting at least 13 of those or some combination of Halladay and a name we're not seeing in the picture.
Story Lines to watch: An Utley Extension, Ruiz Trade?, does Brown assert himself as an everyday middle of the line-up presence of the future, which prospects emerge to take a spot on the 25 man. And last the elephant in the room what happens to Charlie Manuel.
Stay Tuned it should be a fun ride!
I do have reservations that the Starting Pitching can hold up as a whole with the better line-ups (Nats, Braves, Reds, Tigers) but then we do have the Marlins and Mets in our own division so things may even out. Every season will have it's share of unpredictable injuries, break-outs and break downs so let's play 162 and see who is left standing.
Bold predictions are tired in my opinion. Every network and pundit does them. I will only say I think the over under on wins for the 2013 club is 90, predicated on Halladay getting at least 13 of those or some combination of Halladay and a name we're not seeing in the picture.
Story Lines to watch: An Utley Extension, Ruiz Trade?, does Brown assert himself as an everyday middle of the line-up presence of the future, which prospects emerge to take a spot on the 25 man. And last the elephant in the room what happens to Charlie Manuel.
Stay Tuned it should be a fun ride!
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Winding Down
Roy finished his last start of spring training with the line of 4.1 IP, 8 Hits, 2 ER, 2BB and 6 SO. I didn't see the game but that tells me he is going to struggle all year to get outs even with the high strikeout total teams, good teams will at some point stop getting themselves out and force Doc into the zone.
Pitching is king in the MLB. Even if you have a good BP starters that cannot take you deep into games will wear out that BP come Sept.
We'll see how long they go with Roy. My prediction is that at some point in April he will go on the DL and we may see Adam Morgan or Jon Pettibone take his spot.
Pitching is king in the MLB. Even if you have a good BP starters that cannot take you deep into games will wear out that BP come Sept.
We'll see how long they go with Roy. My prediction is that at some point in April he will go on the DL and we may see Adam Morgan or Jon Pettibone take his spot.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Get a look at the up and comers!
The GKita Channel on Youtube keeps you in the loop with Phillies Prospects of tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGkita/featured
http://www.youtube.com/user/TheGkita/featured
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Todays Line-Up
Strasburg and the Nats today
Revere CF
Young 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Brown LF
Nix DH
Mayberry RF
Joseph C
Betancourt SS
Revere CF
Young 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Brown LF
Nix DH
Mayberry RF
Joseph C
Betancourt SS
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Todays Line-Up
Playing the DR WBC Team today
Ender Inciarte, CF
Kevin Frandsen, 2B
Domonic Brown, RF
Ryan Howard, 1B
Darin Ruf, LF
Laynce Nix, DH
Cody Asche, 3B
Erik Kratz, C
Freddy Galvis, SS
Ender Inciarte, CF
Kevin Frandsen, 2B
Domonic Brown, RF
Ryan Howard, 1B
Darin Ruf, LF
Laynce Nix, DH
Cody Asche, 3B
Erik Kratz, C
Freddy Galvis, SS
Monday, March 4, 2013
Todays Line-Up
Revere CF
Young 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Ruf LF
Brown RF
Mayberry DH
Betancourt SS
Quintero C
Young 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Ruf LF
Brown RF
Mayberry DH
Betancourt SS
Quintero C
Weekend Recap
This weekends ST games helped to bring some issues into focus starting with Dom Brown. I always felt confidence was an issue for this young player. You don't put up the numbers he did in the MiLB without having some talent and MLB ability.
He seems poised to seize an OF spot on opening day.
Howard would need to get back to near MVP form if this 2013 team expects to contend for the NL East. He looks strong, he appears to be seeing the ball quite well so if his adjustments are not a fluke his production in the middle of the line-up should translate into a few more wins than last year.
The BP should be vastly improved. I think we lost close to 12 games last year where the BP was given the ball with a lead late in games. Aumont looks nasty and Adams if healthy all year would reduce that number significantly.
Revere can play defense, get on base and steal bases. Utley can still hit albeit without the same power.
UTR...the offensive approach seems to have improved. They seem to be placing an effort into working themselves into hitter's counts and driving up pitch counts. Working more walks or getting more FB's to hit would vastly improve their run totals.
That's the good. The issues that were some what negative question marks still in my opinion remain. Let's start with Roy. Based on what I saw thus far compared to what I saw in Spring 2010 is lost command and velocity. It used to be when Roy missed in the zone hitters still had a hard time squaring him up. Not so much anymore. The velocity and movement on his pitches still seem down to me. Glass half full he needs more time to build back the arm strength.
Can Michael Young play a passable 3B? I'm not so sure he can and I'm not so sure his offensive production while MLB adequate will be enough to off-set poor defensive play at the hot corner. I thought they should have committed to a Galvis/Frandsen platoon.
You had to be excited about the offensive performance of one Darin Ruf. Yes he was an older prospect breaking RH's Reading HR record but the kid was a college draftee so he was always going to be older for his league. Ruf did have solid numbers throughout his career. High OBP and above average OPS.
The old adage "if you can hit we'll find a place in the field for you" poses a serious challenge for Manuel in the case of Darin. LF hasn't gone as well as I would have hoped. I had thought if he gives you the offensive production with say Ibanez type range in LF you might make it work. Ruf truly can be the right handed pop this line-up has missed since Jayson Werth but at what defensive cost.
Finally there is a long way to go before April 5th. The main goal at this point would be to get there in good health and see what type of mojo this 2013 team can muster at the start of the season.
He seems poised to seize an OF spot on opening day.
Howard would need to get back to near MVP form if this 2013 team expects to contend for the NL East. He looks strong, he appears to be seeing the ball quite well so if his adjustments are not a fluke his production in the middle of the line-up should translate into a few more wins than last year.
The BP should be vastly improved. I think we lost close to 12 games last year where the BP was given the ball with a lead late in games. Aumont looks nasty and Adams if healthy all year would reduce that number significantly.
Revere can play defense, get on base and steal bases. Utley can still hit albeit without the same power.
UTR...the offensive approach seems to have improved. They seem to be placing an effort into working themselves into hitter's counts and driving up pitch counts. Working more walks or getting more FB's to hit would vastly improve their run totals.
That's the good. The issues that were some what negative question marks still in my opinion remain. Let's start with Roy. Based on what I saw thus far compared to what I saw in Spring 2010 is lost command and velocity. It used to be when Roy missed in the zone hitters still had a hard time squaring him up. Not so much anymore. The velocity and movement on his pitches still seem down to me. Glass half full he needs more time to build back the arm strength.
Can Michael Young play a passable 3B? I'm not so sure he can and I'm not so sure his offensive production while MLB adequate will be enough to off-set poor defensive play at the hot corner. I thought they should have committed to a Galvis/Frandsen platoon.
You had to be excited about the offensive performance of one Darin Ruf. Yes he was an older prospect breaking RH's Reading HR record but the kid was a college draftee so he was always going to be older for his league. Ruf did have solid numbers throughout his career. High OBP and above average OPS.
The old adage "if you can hit we'll find a place in the field for you" poses a serious challenge for Manuel in the case of Darin. LF hasn't gone as well as I would have hoped. I had thought if he gives you the offensive production with say Ibanez type range in LF you might make it work. Ruf truly can be the right handed pop this line-up has missed since Jayson Werth but at what defensive cost.
Finally there is a long way to go before April 5th. The main goal at this point would be to get there in good health and see what type of mojo this 2013 team can muster at the start of the season.
Friday, March 1, 2013
Todays Line-Up
Rollins SS
Revere CF
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Young M 3B
Brown LF
Ruf DH
Mayberry RF
Lerud C
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Today's Line-Up
This could be the one we see to start the season
Revere CF
Rollins SS
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Young Michael 3B
Brown RF
Ruf LF
Nix DH
Kratz C
Revere CF
Rollins SS
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Young Michael 3B
Brown RF
Ruf LF
Nix DH
Kratz C
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Todays Line-up
Revere CF
Galvis SS
Brown LF
Howard 1B
Ruiz C
Mayberry RF
Frandsen 3B
Betancourt 2B
Orr DH
Galvis SS
Brown LF
Howard 1B
Ruiz C
Mayberry RF
Frandsen 3B
Betancourt 2B
Orr DH
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)