J.P. Crawford-In 2012 the Phillies finished their season 81-81 and ended up with the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft. They selected J.P. the cousin of Carl Crawford with that pick. JP has been everything they had hoped he would be since he entered the system.
As a hitter JP has incredible hand eye coordination and pitch recognition skills. Rarely will you see JP fooled on a pitch and rarely will you see him strike out. He can grind out an AB and will take walks but that is not the end of his bat talent. When JP sees the pitch he wants it comes off his bat with authority and crack.
Defensively Crawford is really smooth and he may not possess the same kind of range and arm as Jimmy Rollins but he will get the job done and possibly improve that area of his game significantly after he gets to the majors.
Floor-Everyday SS in the MLB that plays above average defense
Ceiling Perenial All Star candidate; Prototypical lead off skills and run scorer. I could see him having a Jeter-Esque career in Philly
Jake Thompson-Came over in the Hamels to TX trade. I love the way this kid competes. Nothing about him is flashy. He doesn't sit 96-97. What he does do is get hitters out with a good FB, good curve ball mix.
Floor-Brett Myers
Celing-Brett Myers/Peavy
Nick Williams-Another blue chip piece in the Hamels to TX trade. Nick has great tools. He generates great bat speed, runs well, throws well. The questions are can he hit lefties enough to be an everyday player and can he minimize his K's. What type of in game power will he develop. The swing is short and quick tremendous bat speed so its not like he can't put balls out of the yard now. He can hit them a long way when he squares them up.
Floor-Michael Bourn with not quite the same speed and base stealing ability but more pop
Ceiling-.275 25+ HR guy I think possibly an Alex Gordon type.
Andrew Knapp-53rd overall pick in 2013 out of Cal Berkley. The Phillies thought enough of him to pay him a six figure signing bonus. Injuries hampered his first 2 seasons but Andrew got it together in 2015 hitting a combined .308 with an .876 OPS at 2 Levels Hi-A and AA. A switch hitting catcher has tons of value.
Floor-Jarrod Saltalamachia
Ceiling-Something just short of Posada
Cornelius Randolph-The 10th pick overall in the 2015 Amateur Draft Randolph simply put is the LF version of Tony Gwynn in stature and profile. He is kind of a throw back to a Wade Boggs in my opinion. I think defensively we are looking at an average player that hits near .300 with 20-30 doubles and maybe 10-15 HR's a season.
Floor-Daniel Murphy
Ceiling-Tony Gwynn
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Prospect Profiles 6-10
Mark Appel-Came over in the Ken Giles trade. Former 1/1 pick 2013 of Stanford. He actually was drafted in round 1 8th overall the year before by the Pirates and once before that in 2009 by the Tigers 15th round.
Quite simply Mark has what you like to see from a front-line starter. A plus Fastball and an above average slider. He'll need a pitch to keep lefties off his FB and so the Change will need incremental improvement in 2016 in order to do that. Pro results have been lackluster to this point. Mark has logged 253 IP but only managed a WHIP of 1.439 over a K/9 of 7.9. That speaks to command issues. If he somehow puts it together for the Philles he could be in mainstay of the rotation for years to come.
Floor-Wade Davis
Ceiling-Jake Arrieta
Ricardo Pinto-The Phillies signed him out of Venezuela as an 18 y/o. He is now 22 any many would debate rating him before Kilome. Pinto has a smaller stature so many question (reasonably so) whether or not he can maintain his stuff through a line-up more then 2X. I like his ability to maintain a WHIP of 1.06 over 13 starts in CLW this season past as a 21 y/o.
Floor-a BP arm 6/7 inning type
Ceiling-Anibal Sanchez
Roman Quinn-A second round pick in 2011 who received a $750,000 signing bonus to keep him away from a Florida State commitment. First thought to be a SS that experiment fizzled out with the addition of Crawford. Roman has elite speed when healthy. A switch hitter Quinn has some pop which is not to say he would hit 20+ HR's ever in a season. When we look at Roman's 257 PA's at Reading we see glimpses of a star a .306 average over a .356 OBP. With his speed he is an explosive run producer with the potential to play a GG center field.
Floor-The injuries remind me of Jose Reyes
Ceiling-If Healthy he reminds me of the healthy Jose Reyes possibly Victorino
Rhys Hoskins-In scouting circles few see a right handed hitting first baseman as a true prospect unless he somehow manages to mash 30-40 HR's. Rhys is a 5th round pick out of Cal State Sacremento. In my opinion he deserves to be ranked in the top 10 because as a 22 y/o between two levels of A ball (Low and HI) he hit a combined .319 avg over a .913 OPS. Rhys has power pole to pole and does a real good job of keeping the swing short and compact. He seems to recognize the off speed well enough to not be out on his front foot more than you would like to see.
Floor-Darin Ruf
Ceiling-Billy Butler
Franklyn Kilome-Franklyn is everyone's darling prospect this season it seems and rightly so. Signed out of the DR for a supposed $40 Grand. The tools are loud and the FB is big, the frame is big and sturdy as well. The only thing missing is a more dominant body of work. Kilome pitched in WPT this past season as a 20 y/o. He started 11 Games and logged 49.1 IP. His WHIP was a respectable 1.257 but his K/9 was paltry 6.6 by standards of other true aces at that level. That in and of itself is no reason NOT to be excited about this young man. By June we could easily see him improve 5-7 spots.
Floor-High Leverage Reliever
Ceiling-DeGrom
Quite simply Mark has what you like to see from a front-line starter. A plus Fastball and an above average slider. He'll need a pitch to keep lefties off his FB and so the Change will need incremental improvement in 2016 in order to do that. Pro results have been lackluster to this point. Mark has logged 253 IP but only managed a WHIP of 1.439 over a K/9 of 7.9. That speaks to command issues. If he somehow puts it together for the Philles he could be in mainstay of the rotation for years to come.
Floor-Wade Davis
Ceiling-Jake Arrieta
Ricardo Pinto-The Phillies signed him out of Venezuela as an 18 y/o. He is now 22 any many would debate rating him before Kilome. Pinto has a smaller stature so many question (reasonably so) whether or not he can maintain his stuff through a line-up more then 2X. I like his ability to maintain a WHIP of 1.06 over 13 starts in CLW this season past as a 21 y/o.
Floor-a BP arm 6/7 inning type
Ceiling-Anibal Sanchez
Roman Quinn-A second round pick in 2011 who received a $750,000 signing bonus to keep him away from a Florida State commitment. First thought to be a SS that experiment fizzled out with the addition of Crawford. Roman has elite speed when healthy. A switch hitter Quinn has some pop which is not to say he would hit 20+ HR's ever in a season. When we look at Roman's 257 PA's at Reading we see glimpses of a star a .306 average over a .356 OBP. With his speed he is an explosive run producer with the potential to play a GG center field.
Floor-The injuries remind me of Jose Reyes
Ceiling-If Healthy he reminds me of the healthy Jose Reyes possibly Victorino
Rhys Hoskins-In scouting circles few see a right handed hitting first baseman as a true prospect unless he somehow manages to mash 30-40 HR's. Rhys is a 5th round pick out of Cal State Sacremento. In my opinion he deserves to be ranked in the top 10 because as a 22 y/o between two levels of A ball (Low and HI) he hit a combined .319 avg over a .913 OPS. Rhys has power pole to pole and does a real good job of keeping the swing short and compact. He seems to recognize the off speed well enough to not be out on his front foot more than you would like to see.
Floor-Darin Ruf
Ceiling-Billy Butler
Franklyn Kilome-Franklyn is everyone's darling prospect this season it seems and rightly so. Signed out of the DR for a supposed $40 Grand. The tools are loud and the FB is big, the frame is big and sturdy as well. The only thing missing is a more dominant body of work. Kilome pitched in WPT this past season as a 20 y/o. He started 11 Games and logged 49.1 IP. His WHIP was a respectable 1.257 but his K/9 was paltry 6.6 by standards of other true aces at that level. That in and of itself is no reason NOT to be excited about this young man. By June we could easily see him improve 5-7 spots.
Floor-High Leverage Reliever
Ceiling-DeGrom
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Prospect Profiles 11-15
Jorge Alfaro-After Kilome things start to get dicey as to whether or not this next round of guys will play in the MLB let alone play at an everyday level. Alfaro fits your classic boom or bust type prospect. He has the tools that make you go "Ah and Oooh" big power big arm athleticism etc...
Jorge also has a ton of swing and miss in his game so he'll have to clean that up and show an ability to not chase pitches out of the zone. If he doesn't big league pitching is never going to give him anything to hit. He is here at 11 because he is only 23 and made AA with decent results.
Floor-Sebastian Valle
Ceiling-Yadier Molina
Adonis Medina-signed in May 2014 out of the DR Medina excelled in the DSL. In 2015 they brought him stateside to pitch in the GCL where he didn't disappoint. Adonis put up a 1.191 WHIP and a 6.9 K/9. Most nights his FB sat 92-93 with a decent amount of arm side run to it. The secondary pitches (his Curve Ball) seems to need some work. At times it looks like he gets around the pitch but the mechanics are clean and easy. There is much to like about this young arm.
Floor-David Buchannon
Ceiling-TBD
Zach Eflin-Came via the Rollins trade. Many have him ranked much higher than this and they certainly have a case. I have seen him pitch live twice. I liked everything I saw with one exception he struggled to put AA hitters away. His game appears to be a low 90's FB with plenty of movement/sink and good command to both sides of the plate. He induces a decent amount of weak contact and ground balls. But you can definitely see there is something missing in either a curve ball slider or change up. For him to make it through a line-up more than once or twice those pitches have to come.
Floor-5th starter Kyle Kendrick type of player
Ceiling-Something a little better than a 5th starter
Dylan Cozens-Drafted in the 2nd round of 2012 after the Phillies won over 100 games in 2011. Cozens is a big boy and could have went on to play defensive end for Arizona but the Phillies ponied up the cash to buy him out of that commitment just to see if the athleticism could translate over to pro baseball. Dylan has been remarkably consistent at ever stop and got a late season call up to AA at age 21. Cozens is an incredible athlete for a young man of his size 6'6" 235 LBS. Think Chris Davis if he can tap into that potential and get a better feel for the strike zone.
Floor-Org Filler
Ceiling-Chris Davis
Jimmy Cordero-Came over from Toronto in the Ben Revere trade. Big Arm that really projects as a late inning BP arm. 8th inning or closer. Cordero has wicked arm action and can fire across his body with plenty of deception. Word on the street is that he can get it up close to 100 MPH.
Jorge also has a ton of swing and miss in his game so he'll have to clean that up and show an ability to not chase pitches out of the zone. If he doesn't big league pitching is never going to give him anything to hit. He is here at 11 because he is only 23 and made AA with decent results.
Floor-Sebastian Valle
Ceiling-Yadier Molina
Adonis Medina-signed in May 2014 out of the DR Medina excelled in the DSL. In 2015 they brought him stateside to pitch in the GCL where he didn't disappoint. Adonis put up a 1.191 WHIP and a 6.9 K/9. Most nights his FB sat 92-93 with a decent amount of arm side run to it. The secondary pitches (his Curve Ball) seems to need some work. At times it looks like he gets around the pitch but the mechanics are clean and easy. There is much to like about this young arm.
Floor-David Buchannon
Ceiling-TBD
Zach Eflin-Came via the Rollins trade. Many have him ranked much higher than this and they certainly have a case. I have seen him pitch live twice. I liked everything I saw with one exception he struggled to put AA hitters away. His game appears to be a low 90's FB with plenty of movement/sink and good command to both sides of the plate. He induces a decent amount of weak contact and ground balls. But you can definitely see there is something missing in either a curve ball slider or change up. For him to make it through a line-up more than once or twice those pitches have to come.
Floor-5th starter Kyle Kendrick type of player
Ceiling-Something a little better than a 5th starter
Dylan Cozens-Drafted in the 2nd round of 2012 after the Phillies won over 100 games in 2011. Cozens is a big boy and could have went on to play defensive end for Arizona but the Phillies ponied up the cash to buy him out of that commitment just to see if the athleticism could translate over to pro baseball. Dylan has been remarkably consistent at ever stop and got a late season call up to AA at age 21. Cozens is an incredible athlete for a young man of his size 6'6" 235 LBS. Think Chris Davis if he can tap into that potential and get a better feel for the strike zone.
Floor-Org Filler
Ceiling-Chris Davis
Jimmy Cordero-Came over from Toronto in the Ben Revere trade. Big Arm that really projects as a late inning BP arm. 8th inning or closer. Cordero has wicked arm action and can fire across his body with plenty of deception. Word on the street is that he can get it up close to 100 MPH.
Monday, January 11, 2016
Prospect Profile 16-20
Edubray Ramos-this is the one pick I may end up kicking myself for as in relievers should not rank this high unless they possess real closer type stuff. I'm not sure Ramos does but man does he have a real tight slider that seems to give both right and left handers fits.
Floor-BP arm
Ceiling-TBD
Luis Encarnacion-If controversy is your thing you have got to love him here. Signed in 2013 out of the DR for $1 Million USD Sal put it on the line. Typically the brass for the Phillies at that time had some kind of phobia about the seven figure latin market. In Luis however they decided to role the dice. Many say he is a 1B I see a little more athleticism than that. I see enough to project him in a corner OF spot. He will begin this season as an 18 y/o most likely in WPT. He showed some signs of life in the GCL this past season where he hit .271.
Floor-Never makes it out of A ball
Ceiling-He could look like another famous Encarnacion
Scott Kingery-Speed and quickness best describe this 2015 2nd Round pick out of the University of AZ where he had to walk on. Primarily a 2B Scott profiles well as a big league player. He is a classic hustler and the fans are going to love him. If he adjusts to wood bat he will make it to the MLB in some form or fashion by 2017. I believe the Phillies want him to be their 2B of the future as was Chase when they took him out of UCLA some 15 years ago.
Floor-Mark DeRosa Type
Ceiling-Pedroia
Carlos Tocci-Maybe the most polarizing position player prospect we've had in the system in sometime. You'll see his name in many other lists in the top 5 and of course here at 19. Carlos was signed as a 16 y/o and given $700K. The knock on him has always been his build or the question of whether or not he will be strong enough to drive balls into the gaps let alone over the wall. An exceptionally talented CF he gets to just about everything hit out there. As a 19 y/o im the Sally league he put up a slash of 321/387/810 not to shabby. He got a call up to CLW where he started off well but faded towards the latter part of the season. Again a product I believe of wearing down. He needs to put on weight somehow and he will be just fine. Good chance he begins the season in CLW and if all goes well we see him in Reading by the end of 2016.
Floor-a 4th OF
Ceiling-Joe DiMaggio (LOL to hear others tell it)
Victor Arano-Return from the Roberto Hernandez trade. Let's just say that is quite the return for a player of Roberto at that time in his career. Arano is just 21. He has enough FB and enough command of it to keep hitters at bay once through a line-up. We'll need to see if those secondary pitches come enough to allow him to be a Ricky Nolasco type.
Floor-BP Arm
Ceiling-Ricky Nolasco
Floor-BP arm
Ceiling-TBD
Luis Encarnacion-If controversy is your thing you have got to love him here. Signed in 2013 out of the DR for $1 Million USD Sal put it on the line. Typically the brass for the Phillies at that time had some kind of phobia about the seven figure latin market. In Luis however they decided to role the dice. Many say he is a 1B I see a little more athleticism than that. I see enough to project him in a corner OF spot. He will begin this season as an 18 y/o most likely in WPT. He showed some signs of life in the GCL this past season where he hit .271.
Floor-Never makes it out of A ball
Ceiling-He could look like another famous Encarnacion
Scott Kingery-Speed and quickness best describe this 2015 2nd Round pick out of the University of AZ where he had to walk on. Primarily a 2B Scott profiles well as a big league player. He is a classic hustler and the fans are going to love him. If he adjusts to wood bat he will make it to the MLB in some form or fashion by 2017. I believe the Phillies want him to be their 2B of the future as was Chase when they took him out of UCLA some 15 years ago.
Floor-Mark DeRosa Type
Ceiling-Pedroia
Carlos Tocci-Maybe the most polarizing position player prospect we've had in the system in sometime. You'll see his name in many other lists in the top 5 and of course here at 19. Carlos was signed as a 16 y/o and given $700K. The knock on him has always been his build or the question of whether or not he will be strong enough to drive balls into the gaps let alone over the wall. An exceptionally talented CF he gets to just about everything hit out there. As a 19 y/o im the Sally league he put up a slash of 321/387/810 not to shabby. He got a call up to CLW where he started off well but faded towards the latter part of the season. Again a product I believe of wearing down. He needs to put on weight somehow and he will be just fine. Good chance he begins the season in CLW and if all goes well we see him in Reading by the end of 2016.
Floor-a 4th OF
Ceiling-Joe DiMaggio (LOL to hear others tell it)
Victor Arano-Return from the Roberto Hernandez trade. Let's just say that is quite the return for a player of Roberto at that time in his career. Arano is just 21. He has enough FB and enough command of it to keep hitters at bay once through a line-up. We'll need to see if those secondary pitches come enough to allow him to be a Ricky Nolasco type.
Floor-BP Arm
Ceiling-Ricky Nolasco
Friday, January 8, 2016
2016 PROSPECT RANKS
J.P. Crawford
Jake Thompson
Nick Williams
Andrew Knapp
Cornelius Randolph
Mark Appel
Ricardo Pinto
Roman Quinn
Rhys Hoskins
Franklyn Kilome
Jorge Alfaro
Adonis Medina
Zach Eflin
Dylen Cozens
Jimmy Cordero
Edubray Ramos
Luis Encarnacion
Scott Kingery
Carlos Tocci
Victor Arano
Alberto Tirado
Jesse Biddle
Deivi Grullon
Nick Pivetta
Angelo Mora
My 26-30 would be Pullin, Tobias, Lively, Lucas Williams and Jon Richy in any order
Just outside my top 30 would be another field of names: Nick Fanti, Gamboa, Brito, Lenin Rodriquez and Ortiz.
Jake Thompson
Nick Williams
Andrew Knapp
Cornelius Randolph
Mark Appel
Ricardo Pinto
Roman Quinn
Rhys Hoskins
Franklyn Kilome
Jorge Alfaro
Adonis Medina
Zach Eflin
Dylen Cozens
Jimmy Cordero
Edubray Ramos
Luis Encarnacion
Scott Kingery
Carlos Tocci
Victor Arano
Alberto Tirado
Jesse Biddle
Deivi Grullon
Nick Pivetta
Angelo Mora
My 26-30 would be Pullin, Tobias, Lively, Lucas Williams and Jon Richy in any order
Just outside my top 30 would be another field of names: Nick Fanti, Gamboa, Brito, Lenin Rodriquez and Ortiz.
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Pitching Dominance Index
Here is a simple formula that I have developed to measure how dominant a pitcher is
Hits/9-K/9 Divided By WHIP
Let's breakdown each component. Hits/9 is straight forward. We're looking at how many times the batters are winning with the bat against a pitcher with this stat. It's shallow in many respects because we're not looking at doubles vs. HR's etc...
But at the end of a pitchers line if the other team wasn't able to manage many hits against him that's a good sign. So far in my studies it is very few and far between the number of pitchers that have a H/9 lower than their K/9 but when you do find it and look up at the pitchers name it's generally a name one would recognize as a tough guy to face.
K/9 again very straight forward. A pitchers ability to get outs from the "strike out" takes many things out of play such as errors. We generally recognize that pitchers with a K/9 above 8 in the bigs is pretty dominant.
WHIP (Walks Hits to Innings Pitched) we bring this into the equation because it represents the base on balls factor. In addition because it is per innings pitched and not per 9 innings pitched it seems to help smooth out the factor.
Now we apply the equation to the knowns and see what it looks like:
Hits/9-K/9 Divided By WHIP
Let's breakdown each component. Hits/9 is straight forward. We're looking at how many times the batters are winning with the bat against a pitcher with this stat. It's shallow in many respects because we're not looking at doubles vs. HR's etc...
But at the end of a pitchers line if the other team wasn't able to manage many hits against him that's a good sign. So far in my studies it is very few and far between the number of pitchers that have a H/9 lower than their K/9 but when you do find it and look up at the pitchers name it's generally a name one would recognize as a tough guy to face.
K/9 again very straight forward. A pitchers ability to get outs from the "strike out" takes many things out of play such as errors. We generally recognize that pitchers with a K/9 above 8 in the bigs is pretty dominant.
WHIP (Walks Hits to Innings Pitched) we bring this into the equation because it represents the base on balls factor. In addition because it is per innings pitched and not per 9 innings pitched it seems to help smooth out the factor.
Now we apply the equation to the knowns and see what it looks like:
Hamels minor league dominance index was a negative -7.05. Kyle Kendricks was a positive 2.75 Brett Myers was a +.348 and Aaron Nola was a +.657
Kilome is a +1.56 Vincent Velasquez is -3.26; Jake Thompson is is +.645
Historical reference Roger Clemons in the minors was a -4.54 and more recent Jake Arrieta Minors Dominance Index was a -.509. Jake was the 2015 Cy Young in the N.L.
A Negative number is obviously extreme dominance; A positive number less than 1 is pretty darn good and even a number 1.00-2.00 is an above average pitcher.
Once you start to get above that you start seeing guys that are pretty mediocre but there are outliers. Greg Maddux for instance finished his career with a Dominance Index of 2.10. He pitched quite a long time though so I imagine if you did the exercise of applying that formula to his prime years it would be much lower.
Try it out for yourself. Use pitchers from the past and present and see how they compare. Use their minors stats first then use their MLB stats. I like to do this with HOF pitchers just to see.
Monday, January 4, 2016
Happy New Year 2016
I haven't posted since April 2015. It was fun to read through that post as most of it came to fruition. The rebuild is full on...We added "C" Randolph in June and a wealth of prospects in the Hamels and Giles deals. And finally we secured the first overall pick in this years amateur draft preceded by a $4 Million dollar LA sign in Jhailyn Ortiz a projected big power bat.
Chances are good we will secure another top 10 pick for 2017!
J.P. Crawford the 16th pick overall in 2013 started the year in Clearwater and had a torrid 21 games before getting the promotion to AA Reading where he stayed hot until the end of the season. He will begin 2016 as a 21 year old and more than likely push to get a call to Philly sometime this season. Probably not likely we see him in pinstripes before August but you never know.
We saw our first round pick from 2014 make his MLB Debut. Aaron Nola put up a 1.197 WHIP and showed the command all the scouts projected he would have.
Franco showed glimpses of possible stardom in Philly. We'll need him to stay healthy and have a 2016 season where he plays 140+ Games.
We moved the Front Office forward with Middleton finally asserting himself as the managing partner then adding MacPhail and Klentak to oversee and steer the ship.
It's a long road back from a 100+ loss season but there are some real talented youngsters in the system now with very high upside. It will be up to them to realize that potential and gel into the core of the next Phillies teams to contend.
Chances are good we will secure another top 10 pick for 2017!
J.P. Crawford the 16th pick overall in 2013 started the year in Clearwater and had a torrid 21 games before getting the promotion to AA Reading where he stayed hot until the end of the season. He will begin 2016 as a 21 year old and more than likely push to get a call to Philly sometime this season. Probably not likely we see him in pinstripes before August but you never know.
We saw our first round pick from 2014 make his MLB Debut. Aaron Nola put up a 1.197 WHIP and showed the command all the scouts projected he would have.
Franco showed glimpses of possible stardom in Philly. We'll need him to stay healthy and have a 2016 season where he plays 140+ Games.
We moved the Front Office forward with Middleton finally asserting himself as the managing partner then adding MacPhail and Klentak to oversee and steer the ship.
It's a long road back from a 100+ loss season but there are some real talented youngsters in the system now with very high upside. It will be up to them to realize that potential and gel into the core of the next Phillies teams to contend.
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