Coincided with Hamels getting his first win of the 2013 season. Odd in and of itself. Also possibly a metaphor of things to come. Carlos will stabilize both the Line-Up and the pitching staff. He is that good.
My Halladay prediction did not come true which is a solid. I did not think he would make it out of April without going on the DL to go down and work on mechanical issues. The fact that he is still here provides a glimmer of hope this club can get to 90 wins.
The All Star break is a long way away and the trade deadline even longer. The only prediction I can make is this. If they are in the hunt they stand pat with the club they have and this group of veterans will be given a chance to compete. They will not trade prospects for veterans.
I do believe they are resolved to get younger after this season regardless of how good they are playing come July.
A much needed night off tonight after sweeping the Mets before heading off to Cleveland. The May schedule is a mixed bag of really good and really bad teams. I am looking for 16-12 record for the month of May which would put them at 28-26.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Grading Ruben
Ruben takes a lot of heat for not being an advanced metrics guy. I wanted to do my own exercise of evaluating his moves big and small
The A Moves:
1. Getting Doc Halladay
2. Getting Cliff Lee the first time
3. Keeping Cole
4. Getting Cliff Lee the second time
5. Extending Jimmy
6. Mike Adams
The B moves:
1. Trading Lee to Seattle-Aumont is proving to be a quality arm in the BP and the fact that we turned around and resigned Lee gives the deal better consideration.
2. Trading Hunter Pence-Joseph was fair return with good upside
3. Michael Young-Only paying $6 Million 1 Year Deal however he didn't need to give up Bonilla
4. Ty Wigginton-Forget that he was horrible on paper it was a solid move
5. Laynce Nix-Forget that he injured himself in 12 again on paper solid move
6. Victorino Trade-Ethan Martin has real big league stuff if he finds a way to stop walking batters he is a front line starter.
The C Moves
1. Extending Howard-At the time I thought he should have waited. The price would have come down or we would have moved on.
2. Trading for Hunter Pence-That deal should have stopped at Cosart and Singleton it didn't need to include Santana regardless of what Santana becomes
3. Papelbon-Great player but better vision could have got you Rodney at a much lower cost
4. Roy Oswalt-I gave this move a C because had he just signed Lee it wasn't necessary.
5. Lannan-Not a bad sign at $1.5 for a 5th starter on a 1 year deal
6. Revere-It's early and probably not fair to put it this low but how else can you grade it today!
The D Moves
1. Chad Qualls-Hard to call this a D move because he cost nothing
2. Chad Durbin-It just wasn't necessary with DeFratus, Aumont and the Adams sign
3. D. Young-I think its pretty obvious the guy can no longer play the OF not to mention he may be the least liked guy in baseball since Milton Bradley. But at $750K still not an F sign.
I really don't see any F moves. Maybe those are the moves he didn't make. Beltran for example would look really good in RF for us right now and last year in LF. I don't really have strong opinion on either the Polanco sign or the Ibanez sign. Both older players that made decent contributions while they were here.
The A Moves:
1. Getting Doc Halladay
2. Getting Cliff Lee the first time
3. Keeping Cole
4. Getting Cliff Lee the second time
5. Extending Jimmy
6. Mike Adams
The B moves:
1. Trading Lee to Seattle-Aumont is proving to be a quality arm in the BP and the fact that we turned around and resigned Lee gives the deal better consideration.
2. Trading Hunter Pence-Joseph was fair return with good upside
3. Michael Young-Only paying $6 Million 1 Year Deal however he didn't need to give up Bonilla
4. Ty Wigginton-Forget that he was horrible on paper it was a solid move
5. Laynce Nix-Forget that he injured himself in 12 again on paper solid move
6. Victorino Trade-Ethan Martin has real big league stuff if he finds a way to stop walking batters he is a front line starter.
The C Moves
1. Extending Howard-At the time I thought he should have waited. The price would have come down or we would have moved on.
2. Trading for Hunter Pence-That deal should have stopped at Cosart and Singleton it didn't need to include Santana regardless of what Santana becomes
3. Papelbon-Great player but better vision could have got you Rodney at a much lower cost
4. Roy Oswalt-I gave this move a C because had he just signed Lee it wasn't necessary.
5. Lannan-Not a bad sign at $1.5 for a 5th starter on a 1 year deal
6. Revere-It's early and probably not fair to put it this low but how else can you grade it today!
The D Moves
1. Chad Qualls-Hard to call this a D move because he cost nothing
2. Chad Durbin-It just wasn't necessary with DeFratus, Aumont and the Adams sign
3. D. Young-I think its pretty obvious the guy can no longer play the OF not to mention he may be the least liked guy in baseball since Milton Bradley. But at $750K still not an F sign.
I really don't see any F moves. Maybe those are the moves he didn't make. Beltran for example would look really good in RF for us right now and last year in LF. I don't really have strong opinion on either the Polanco sign or the Ibanez sign. Both older players that made decent contributions while they were here.
Jeff Locke or Sandy Koufax
The Phillies have always had a tendency to make young starters look better than they really are. Last night was no exception. Cole pitched his A$$ off and deserved a better out come but all the offense could muster was 4 hits.
The inning that epitomizes the Phils struggles happened when Mayberry led off with a triple and Brown followed with a HBP. Revere comes up and swings at the first pitch hitting a weak ground ball to Inge. Mayberry was goin on contact and the play at home wasn't even close.
Kratz ended the rally with a DP and there you had it. Not to take anything away from Locke he pitched a decent game but no where near the performance that Cole put up. The Phillies offense with the exception of a few players continues to get themselves out. They swing at way to many pitches out of the strike zone and even in a cripple count they rarely square up a ball.
Again I am sure they are waiting on the line-up to be complete with Ruiz coming off suspension and D. Young rehabbing in Clearwater. While I think Young might help offensively I have major doubt he can play adequately in the OF.
At 9-12 the Phitins should aim to finish April at .500 or better. They need to take the series with the Bucs tonight and move on to Citi Field and take 2 of 3 from the Mets. Doable.
In other notes Biddle k'd 16 of 24 batters faced the other night. We all know he is the numero uno prospect in the system at age 21 in Reading he is making a case to be in Philly by 2014!
The inning that epitomizes the Phils struggles happened when Mayberry led off with a triple and Brown followed with a HBP. Revere comes up and swings at the first pitch hitting a weak ground ball to Inge. Mayberry was goin on contact and the play at home wasn't even close.
Kratz ended the rally with a DP and there you had it. Not to take anything away from Locke he pitched a decent game but no where near the performance that Cole put up. The Phillies offense with the exception of a few players continues to get themselves out. They swing at way to many pitches out of the strike zone and even in a cripple count they rarely square up a ball.
Again I am sure they are waiting on the line-up to be complete with Ruiz coming off suspension and D. Young rehabbing in Clearwater. While I think Young might help offensively I have major doubt he can play adequately in the OF.
At 9-12 the Phitins should aim to finish April at .500 or better. They need to take the series with the Bucs tonight and move on to Citi Field and take 2 of 3 from the Mets. Doable.
In other notes Biddle k'd 16 of 24 batters faced the other night. We all know he is the numero uno prospect in the system at age 21 in Reading he is making a case to be in Philly by 2014!
Monday, April 15, 2013
12 Games In
The good-Defensively the Phillies have been pretty good. M Young is a little better than we thought, Revere has been as advertised and Dom Brown is doing pretty well in LF. Offensively 26 is proving himself healthy and Michael Young is still the professional hitter we saw in TX all those years. The BP outside of Durbin is doing it's job. Lannan has been a good 5th starter, Lee has been a shut down type ace and I think we all know Cole is fine and will pitch deep into games.
The Bad-Is Charlie smarter than we give him credit for? I ask because he had questions all along about whether or not Revere should lead off. He has stuck with Ben in that role maybe as an "in your face public opinion" demonstration that Jimmy is still the best person for the job. Brown needs to do a better job of getting on base. His eye was a major skill, he rarely swung at pitches outside the zone and took his walks accordingly. Early on his OBP is sub .300 that's not good and that's not his game.
Dom has the tools to be a near .300 hitter with power. He needs to not accept being average if the teams plans on contending for a play off birth.
Finally 2 of 3 from the Marlins is bad if you see this club making the playoffs and having any type of a chance to win a playoff series. A .500 record 6-6 heading into a 4 game set with the Reds. Nothing in September is (usually) as it is in April and the real evaluation of this team begins with Ruiz and D Young returning to the line-up later this month.
The Bad-Is Charlie smarter than we give him credit for? I ask because he had questions all along about whether or not Revere should lead off. He has stuck with Ben in that role maybe as an "in your face public opinion" demonstration that Jimmy is still the best person for the job. Brown needs to do a better job of getting on base. His eye was a major skill, he rarely swung at pitches outside the zone and took his walks accordingly. Early on his OBP is sub .300 that's not good and that's not his game.
Dom has the tools to be a near .300 hitter with power. He needs to not accept being average if the teams plans on contending for a play off birth.
Finally 2 of 3 from the Marlins is bad if you see this club making the playoffs and having any type of a chance to win a playoff series. A .500 record 6-6 heading into a 4 game set with the Reds. Nothing in September is (usually) as it is in April and the real evaluation of this team begins with Ruiz and D Young returning to the line-up later this month.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Let's go to Miami
2 of 3 from the Met's. Cliff Lee is pitching to his check and Michael Young is flashing the offensive prowess that made him a perennial all star. This club can make a big statement by going on the road and sweeping the Marlins in their own park.
Yes the Marlins are bad....really bad but the Phillies are merely mediocre next to the top clubs they will contend with in the NL so sweeps of teams like the Marlins and Astros are completely necessary. We finish out the month with a mixed bag, away at the Reds, home for 4 against the Cards, 4 with the Pirates and then away at the Mets. I'd have a lot of confidence in this club if they can go 12-5 or 11-6 during this stretch.
At some point Delmon Young will make his way north. Ruiz will be eligible to come back 4/28 and the line-up could look much different. Revere hasn't done much to prove he can be an every day lead off hitting .211 with a .264 OBP whiles Rollins is hitting .311/.350. The return of those players make for a natural re-shuffling of the batting order:
Rollins
M Young
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Brown
D. Young
Revere
Yes the Marlins are bad....really bad but the Phillies are merely mediocre next to the top clubs they will contend with in the NL so sweeps of teams like the Marlins and Astros are completely necessary. We finish out the month with a mixed bag, away at the Reds, home for 4 against the Cards, 4 with the Pirates and then away at the Mets. I'd have a lot of confidence in this club if they can go 12-5 or 11-6 during this stretch.
At some point Delmon Young will make his way north. Ruiz will be eligible to come back 4/28 and the line-up could look much different. Revere hasn't done much to prove he can be an every day lead off hitting .211 with a .264 OBP whiles Rollins is hitting .311/.350. The return of those players make for a natural re-shuffling of the batting order:
Rollins
M Young
Utley
Howard
Ruiz
Brown
D. Young
Revere
Monday, April 8, 2013
That Sucked!
The Royals came to town a much improved roster yes but we didn't even face Big James Shields and still managed to lose 2 of 3. Not a recipe for a good club. While still early the Phils are 2-4 with the Met's coming to town tonight.
Halladay gets his second start against a very good counter part in Harvey. Harvey has the kind of stuff Roy used to have. This should be a good test for our line-up and may get the left handed hitters in our line-up going.
Lord knows we will probably need to score 6 or 7 runs to be in this thing in the 9th. Two things need major improvement for this series. First Revere needs to be on base and Howard needs to get back to the approach that gave us all hope in Spring that he would be a more selective hitter.
Halladay gets his second start against a very good counter part in Harvey. Harvey has the kind of stuff Roy used to have. This should be a good test for our line-up and may get the left handed hitters in our line-up going.
Lord knows we will probably need to score 6 or 7 runs to be in this thing in the 9th. Two things need major improvement for this series. First Revere needs to be on base and Howard needs to get back to the approach that gave us all hope in Spring that he would be a more selective hitter.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
2 Games In
...and we are 0-2. I would have said we'd be 1-1. As I said on the 28th of March Halladay is a problem. A sure fire HOF can be a sad thing to watch when his stuff finally leaves him.
All is not lost but I hope there are contingency plans in the FO. Amaro and his staff need to start exercising trade options and evaluating FA possibilities to vault themselves back into a legit WS contender.
WS teams tend to have a few common threads the Phillies lack. For starters you tend to see a power starter from the right on staff. That was Halladay but no more. Cole and Lee fill the lefty side of a WS starting rotation nicely. Not much is on the FA horizon...Garza possibly!
Next you need a MVP type in the middle of your order. Think Cabrera, Posey type players. They don't grow on trees and rarely hit the FA market in their prime. You have to get lucky or take a chance or both in the trade market.
And finally you have a young player come up and assert themselves into a starting role. Utley did this many moons ago, Werth came into his own in pin stripes and so on. The Phillies hold the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft generally not a place to get a sure fire star that can move quickly to your MLB roster but if things fall right could be an impact player in 2-3 years.
MLB baseball is a true parity sport. There is no salary cap and multiple dimensions to improve your club if you have the type of budget and market that the Phillies have. When you look at the roster look at all of the contracts expiring at the end of the season starting with Manuel.
All is not lost but I hope there are contingency plans in the FO. Amaro and his staff need to start exercising trade options and evaluating FA possibilities to vault themselves back into a legit WS contender.
WS teams tend to have a few common threads the Phillies lack. For starters you tend to see a power starter from the right on staff. That was Halladay but no more. Cole and Lee fill the lefty side of a WS starting rotation nicely. Not much is on the FA horizon...Garza possibly!
Next you need a MVP type in the middle of your order. Think Cabrera, Posey type players. They don't grow on trees and rarely hit the FA market in their prime. You have to get lucky or take a chance or both in the trade market.
And finally you have a young player come up and assert themselves into a starting role. Utley did this many moons ago, Werth came into his own in pin stripes and so on. The Phillies hold the 16th pick in the 2013 Amateur draft generally not a place to get a sure fire star that can move quickly to your MLB roster but if things fall right could be an impact player in 2-3 years.
MLB baseball is a true parity sport. There is no salary cap and multiple dimensions to improve your club if you have the type of budget and market that the Phillies have. When you look at the roster look at all of the contracts expiring at the end of the season starting with Manuel.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Opening Day
Opening day is finally upon us. I have no reservations that this team will be in the hunt far more and far longer than they were in 2012.
I do have reservations that the Starting Pitching can hold up as a whole with the better line-ups (Nats, Braves, Reds, Tigers) but then we do have the Marlins and Mets in our own division so things may even out. Every season will have it's share of unpredictable injuries, break-outs and break downs so let's play 162 and see who is left standing.
Bold predictions are tired in my opinion. Every network and pundit does them. I will only say I think the over under on wins for the 2013 club is 90, predicated on Halladay getting at least 13 of those or some combination of Halladay and a name we're not seeing in the picture.
Story Lines to watch: An Utley Extension, Ruiz Trade?, does Brown assert himself as an everyday middle of the line-up presence of the future, which prospects emerge to take a spot on the 25 man. And last the elephant in the room what happens to Charlie Manuel.
Stay Tuned it should be a fun ride!
I do have reservations that the Starting Pitching can hold up as a whole with the better line-ups (Nats, Braves, Reds, Tigers) but then we do have the Marlins and Mets in our own division so things may even out. Every season will have it's share of unpredictable injuries, break-outs and break downs so let's play 162 and see who is left standing.
Bold predictions are tired in my opinion. Every network and pundit does them. I will only say I think the over under on wins for the 2013 club is 90, predicated on Halladay getting at least 13 of those or some combination of Halladay and a name we're not seeing in the picture.
Story Lines to watch: An Utley Extension, Ruiz Trade?, does Brown assert himself as an everyday middle of the line-up presence of the future, which prospects emerge to take a spot on the 25 man. And last the elephant in the room what happens to Charlie Manuel.
Stay Tuned it should be a fun ride!
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