The Phillies currently sit with the 8th worst record in the MLB so a protected pick should be in order for June 2015 to stack on top of Crawford and Nola, both of which appear to be on track for a 2016 debut.
The Phillies aging line-up only managed a 28th ranked OPS and no Phillie appeared in the top 50 in OPS that is clearly problem number one. When you look at the teams going to playoffs this is one offensive stat that clearly ties to wins and can sometimes offset good but not great starting pitching. Problem is nothing in FA falls within clear cut upgrades. The flip side is there are some potential upgrades but those come with some age or injury history. You could look to 2015 and say Ruf/Howard Platoon at 1B and sign a Morse or Cuddyer to platoon with Brown in LF. You could say they would be best served to platoon right field as well. It appeared to be Byrd at 36 wore down fast. A Byrd/Brown platoon would be something to consider at the risk of some pretty bad defense from Brown.
One might consider Melky Cabrera or Nelson Cruz for high AAV 3 year deals. The trade market would be tough to navigate because we have no depth any where in the system. I just don't believe you can get enough of a return for Hamels. Prospects being the risk that they are and at the same time the commodity that they are seems an unlikely scenario. In my mind you would need to be pretty certain you return a Hamels and an Utley that are no more than a year from being ready to play in the majors plus some.
The more resolute option might be on FA pitching. Scherzer and Lester will command big dollars. Lester will be attractive because he will come without compensation. You could play in the James Shields and Ervin Santana space or Liriano and Kazmir tiers. Even Jason Hammel or Brandon McCarthy would be upgrades. The Phillies ranked 20th in WHIP and any of those guys would likely help them improve on that stat when combined with the emergence of guys like Diekman and Giles in the BP.
Creativity and maybe some unlikely trade partners might pave the way to a WC in 2015. In summation they need to hunt OPS in the corners and possibly in CF while they wait for Franco, Crawford and Nola. A little luck with Biddle wouldn't hurt or maybe a surprise from the farm by way of a Kelly Dugan or Cam Perkins.
I would like to see them move Rollins and Howard this off season as the genesis to a true rebuild.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
The September Call Ups
What should they be? For starters Maikel Franco should come up and play predominately at 1B simply for the experience and not because I think Asche is a better 3B. Asche needs to stay in the line-up and take just about every AB he can between now and the end of the season.
Galvis and Hernandez-No sense in running Rollins and Utley out there every night and not that Freddy and Cesar are the future but getting regular big league time may catch the attention of other clubs thus effectively increasing their trade value.
BP Arms: MAGS, Biddle (if Healthy), Garcia, Horst and Colton Murray. The BP has to be weary at this point and again I see no sense in running up the innings on guys like Giles and Deikman who are the future 8/9 guys. Biddle has racked up over 552 IP over 5 MiLB seasons and in my opinion that it is more than enough for a 1st round pick out of HS. Obviously if the Phillies were in a race you don't do that. I get that performance doesn't merit the call up but its not about that, its about seeing how he handles himself, seeing if being around guys like Hamels and Burnett can get something to click for him.
Dugan-Kelly was the Phillies first pick of the 2009 draft in the second round. Since becoming a Phillie he has been mired with injuries but he has compiled over 1700 PA's and is a career .298/.368/.819 hitter. There is not much else he can do in the minors and with 2 back to back solid performances in AA there is nothing wrong with bringing him up and letting him play everyday.
When you are a team as bad as the Phillies are the fans would rather show up to watch younger players especially if they can come up and have some success and add a little more excitement.
We're 11 days away from Sept 1 so let's see what they do!
Galvis and Hernandez-No sense in running Rollins and Utley out there every night and not that Freddy and Cesar are the future but getting regular big league time may catch the attention of other clubs thus effectively increasing their trade value.
BP Arms: MAGS, Biddle (if Healthy), Garcia, Horst and Colton Murray. The BP has to be weary at this point and again I see no sense in running up the innings on guys like Giles and Deikman who are the future 8/9 guys. Biddle has racked up over 552 IP over 5 MiLB seasons and in my opinion that it is more than enough for a 1st round pick out of HS. Obviously if the Phillies were in a race you don't do that. I get that performance doesn't merit the call up but its not about that, its about seeing how he handles himself, seeing if being around guys like Hamels and Burnett can get something to click for him.
Dugan-Kelly was the Phillies first pick of the 2009 draft in the second round. Since becoming a Phillie he has been mired with injuries but he has compiled over 1700 PA's and is a career .298/.368/.819 hitter. There is not much else he can do in the minors and with 2 back to back solid performances in AA there is nothing wrong with bringing him up and letting him play everyday.
When you are a team as bad as the Phillies are the fans would rather show up to watch younger players especially if they can come up and have some success and add a little more excitement.
We're 11 days away from Sept 1 so let's see what they do!
Friday, August 1, 2014
Monday, July 28, 2014
4 Days to go!
The trade deadline is this Thursday. The Phillies are 46-59, last in the NL East and 12.5 Games back of the Nationals so I guess the good news is they will be on track to get another high value draft pick. The only bright spots on the big club right now seem to be Cole Hamels and Ken Giles.
On the farm you can point to Crawford. In his first full season of pro ball J.P skipped Williamsport started the year in Lakewood and advanced to Hi A Clearwater and is more than holding is own. Nola the 7th pick in this years draft out of LSU has flashed a bit of the potential that allowed him to dominate in the SEC. Outside of that Jesse Biddle took a huge leap backwards and Franco while good of late struggled mightily to start the season in AAA. Not a big deal since he is still very young for the league.
If its better to be lucky than good this club is in major need of a rabbits foot and about a half dozen four leaf clovers. Cliff was supposed to be the one chip in my opinion they could deal at the deadline for a possible blue chip prospect or young player with years of control. A player to possibly form the nucleus of a new core of young players to get us back into the playoffs. An elbow injury in May derailed that plan. Cliff's two starts since coming off the DL have been less than Cliff like.
Let's see what happens with Papelbon, Byrd and dare I say Utley. Rumors continue to swirl that the Giants might be interested and Chase interested in them if you want to make the leap that he does maintain an off season home in the area. Why the Giants went fro Uggla is beyond me. He maybe worse than Howard in terms of drop off in performance, minus the contract of course.
The bigger shame might be that Brown and Asche failed to dominate this year. This team has made plenty of opportunity for a young player to come up and make a statement and it just hasn't happened.
The clock is ticking and it may have to run into over time meaning the waiver period come August. Easily Lee would clear waivers and so would Papelbon. Jimmy might also, Ruiz might but Howard will not.
Finally one must always consider a team blowing the Phillies away for a guy like Cole Hamels. Not an easy road ahead for the front office.
On the farm you can point to Crawford. In his first full season of pro ball J.P skipped Williamsport started the year in Lakewood and advanced to Hi A Clearwater and is more than holding is own. Nola the 7th pick in this years draft out of LSU has flashed a bit of the potential that allowed him to dominate in the SEC. Outside of that Jesse Biddle took a huge leap backwards and Franco while good of late struggled mightily to start the season in AAA. Not a big deal since he is still very young for the league.
If its better to be lucky than good this club is in major need of a rabbits foot and about a half dozen four leaf clovers. Cliff was supposed to be the one chip in my opinion they could deal at the deadline for a possible blue chip prospect or young player with years of control. A player to possibly form the nucleus of a new core of young players to get us back into the playoffs. An elbow injury in May derailed that plan. Cliff's two starts since coming off the DL have been less than Cliff like.
Let's see what happens with Papelbon, Byrd and dare I say Utley. Rumors continue to swirl that the Giants might be interested and Chase interested in them if you want to make the leap that he does maintain an off season home in the area. Why the Giants went fro Uggla is beyond me. He maybe worse than Howard in terms of drop off in performance, minus the contract of course.
The bigger shame might be that Brown and Asche failed to dominate this year. This team has made plenty of opportunity for a young player to come up and make a statement and it just hasn't happened.
The clock is ticking and it may have to run into over time meaning the waiver period come August. Easily Lee would clear waivers and so would Papelbon. Jimmy might also, Ruiz might but Howard will not.
Finally one must always consider a team blowing the Phillies away for a guy like Cole Hamels. Not an easy road ahead for the front office.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
June 2014 Top 20 Prospects
J.P Crawford
Aaron Nola
Maikel Franco
Ken Giles
Jesse Biddle
Roman Quinn
Cam Perkins
Kelly Dugan
Aaron Altherr
Dylan Cozens
Zach Green
Matt Imhof
Severino Gonzalez
Cameron Rupp
Andrew Pullin
Cord Sandberg
Aaron Brown
Luis Encarnacion
Shane Watson
Carlos Tocci
Just Missed: Knapp, Grullen,Hiciano
Aaron Nola
Maikel Franco
Ken Giles
Jesse Biddle
Roman Quinn
Cam Perkins
Kelly Dugan
Aaron Altherr
Dylan Cozens
Zach Green
Matt Imhof
Severino Gonzalez
Cameron Rupp
Andrew Pullin
Cord Sandberg
Aaron Brown
Luis Encarnacion
Shane Watson
Carlos Tocci
Just Missed: Knapp, Grullen,Hiciano
June 17th
The Phillies are in last place in the division 5.5 Back of the Bravo's. An exciting 13 inning win last night may give one enough pause to not write this season off.
I don't write it off or at least I don't want to write it off but unlike the Dodgers of last year we have no Puig to call on to shock our offensive system. Sad really because the pitching has kind of held up. Cole is throwing very well and so is Burnett. One might try to imagine a scenario where Lee comes back fully healthy and again allows this offense to stay in more games than they should.
The bullpen has stabilized nicely with Diekman and the call up of Ken Giles and his 100 MPH cheese cannon. Papelbon has evolved his stuff to close out games with 91-92 and a good Change-Up.
So why are the Phillies last in the division? Well they are 12th in the NL in OPS for starters and really bad OPS wise in CF, LF and 3B. The glass half full would say their second halves cannot be as bad as their first half and maybe that could vault them back in the race.
But time is looming like a big dark cloud. We just had the 7th pick in the draft and used that pick on Aaron Nola. A kid everyone says is polished enough to be in the rotation as early as late this season. We used subsequent picks on a high percentage of younger college players. Those tea leaves say the front office is poised to turn over the roster wherever they have an opportunity. Last years 1st round pick J.P. Crawford is progressing nicely and on track to be the everyday SS at some point in 2016.
The current regime's track record for bringing back players is not good. We have nothing to show for the trade of Cliff Lee to Seattle, nothing to show for the trade of Pence to the Giants and that hurts considering what we gave up to get Hunter. Loosely you might say Ethan Martin has a chance to contribute as a result of the Victorino deal but that's zilch for the caliber of players those guys were when dealt.
Now if you are considering trading the franchises best SS and best 2B of all time you better not miss on either. Neither player commands a haul of prospects but each should land a single solid prospect from the acquiring club or you simply hold onto them. No one in the farm is ready this year or next to be the everyday player. You make those moves and you get Brignac or Cedeno at SS and Cesar Hernandez at second for the rest of the season.
The list of pieces or assets is a nice one for the acquiring clubs out there: Burnett, Byrd, Papelbon, Chooch possibly. Those names will help contenders but you have to question who would give up what for any of those guys. Your scouts really have to dig deep into the leagues farms to come up with a gem or two.
Finally there will be the elephant in the room. What do you do with Cole Hamels the best pitcher you have ever developed out of your system from draft to WS MVP (IMO). He surely would return a significant package. Not an easy decision because it is very difficult to build a world champion caliber starting rotation and Hamels clearly is the type of pitcher that can be highly effective for many years to come at 30 years of age. You better get quality and quantity if you do.
I don't write it off or at least I don't want to write it off but unlike the Dodgers of last year we have no Puig to call on to shock our offensive system. Sad really because the pitching has kind of held up. Cole is throwing very well and so is Burnett. One might try to imagine a scenario where Lee comes back fully healthy and again allows this offense to stay in more games than they should.
The bullpen has stabilized nicely with Diekman and the call up of Ken Giles and his 100 MPH cheese cannon. Papelbon has evolved his stuff to close out games with 91-92 and a good Change-Up.
So why are the Phillies last in the division? Well they are 12th in the NL in OPS for starters and really bad OPS wise in CF, LF and 3B. The glass half full would say their second halves cannot be as bad as their first half and maybe that could vault them back in the race.
But time is looming like a big dark cloud. We just had the 7th pick in the draft and used that pick on Aaron Nola. A kid everyone says is polished enough to be in the rotation as early as late this season. We used subsequent picks on a high percentage of younger college players. Those tea leaves say the front office is poised to turn over the roster wherever they have an opportunity. Last years 1st round pick J.P. Crawford is progressing nicely and on track to be the everyday SS at some point in 2016.
The current regime's track record for bringing back players is not good. We have nothing to show for the trade of Cliff Lee to Seattle, nothing to show for the trade of Pence to the Giants and that hurts considering what we gave up to get Hunter. Loosely you might say Ethan Martin has a chance to contribute as a result of the Victorino deal but that's zilch for the caliber of players those guys were when dealt.
Now if you are considering trading the franchises best SS and best 2B of all time you better not miss on either. Neither player commands a haul of prospects but each should land a single solid prospect from the acquiring club or you simply hold onto them. No one in the farm is ready this year or next to be the everyday player. You make those moves and you get Brignac or Cedeno at SS and Cesar Hernandez at second for the rest of the season.
The list of pieces or assets is a nice one for the acquiring clubs out there: Burnett, Byrd, Papelbon, Chooch possibly. Those names will help contenders but you have to question who would give up what for any of those guys. Your scouts really have to dig deep into the leagues farms to come up with a gem or two.
Finally there will be the elephant in the room. What do you do with Cole Hamels the best pitcher you have ever developed out of your system from draft to WS MVP (IMO). He surely would return a significant package. Not an easy decision because it is very difficult to build a world champion caliber starting rotation and Hamels clearly is the type of pitcher that can be highly effective for many years to come at 30 years of age. You better get quality and quantity if you do.
Friday, May 23, 2014
Relativity of OPS to WHIP Ranking
So here we are a day after the trade deadline and let's see how our OPS RANK+ WHIP RANK scores held up. (see below for what I wrote in May)
1. The Orioles did over take the Jays and they also caught the Yankees. Their current Rank score is 28 and they made no real moves to sure up their WHIP score.
2. The Jays are in second and their current rank is 29 and really out of balance 3/26. They hit the hell out of the ball but cannot pitch and made no real moves to improve that situation yesterday.
3. The Yankees took 2 big hits I don't believe they can over come in Tanaka and Sabathia. They tried to recover with a trade for Brandon McCarthy but I'm not sure it will be enough.
4. The Tigers statement was that they were firmly in the drivers seat in May and that is even more so today. Their Rank 24 was split 2 OPS and 22 WHIP. In part Verlander has not really been Verlander and the BP is still a weak link but big Dave was bold to acquire David Price and maybe Soria in the BP can help sure things up there. No one in the division is capable of catching them or making it interesting for that matter.
5. The Twins who? KC whom I had predicted to make the playoffs in the beginning of the year is coming on some but with a rank score of 39 and no solid moves at the deadline seemingly have no shot at even the second WC birth.
6. The A's clearly the best team in baseball in May are still clearly the best baseball team Aug1 with a score of 7 and some big time moves to add Lester and Samardzja definitely put some more separation between the others in the AL that might upset them in a playoff series.
7. The Angels have done a wonderful job in staying consistently on the heels of the A's, a sure WC spot with a rank score of 9 but no deals at the deadline is suspect.
8. The Braves in May looked to be able to hold off the Nats today that is not the case as the Nats are in first and have a rank score of 21 to the Braves 35. The pitching has really fallen off for the Braves while the Nats have picked it up some offensively. The Marlins may have something to say about the final standings before all is said and done. Stanton can still Mash and a pick-up of former Phillies top prospect Jared Cosart may help fill a void lost by the injury to Jose Fernandez.
9. We said the Brewers were formidable if you trusted their pitching well it's kind of held up. Their rank score today is 20 and while they made no major moves at the deadline Geraldo Parra is a nice extra piece.
10. The Cardinals rank score is 31. Things do not seem to be materializing for the Red Birds at all. Mozeliak dealt for Masterson and Lackey but gave up last seasons super hero's to get him in Craig and Kelly. Their biggest problem is OPS where their rank is 21. Unless the Brewers get the jitters down the stretch it appears to me they can hold on.
11. The Giants in May were unbelievable but much has changed since then and not much happened at the deadline to bolster their club. Their rank is 28 while the Dodgers have jumped to 14 which is the best score of any NL club.
12. The Rockies are far and away in the rear view mirror but get this they are still the 1 Rank in OPS. Unfortunately they are next to last in WHIP
If the statistics hold A's 7 Rank and Angels 9 Rank would hold off Tigers 24 Rank and the Orioles 28 Rank however it must be noted that David Price can and should make a big difference for the Tigers WHIP rank.
In the NL the Dodgers clearly are in a class above the rest which maybe is what they didn't part with any of their highly touted prospects for a major arm (Lester, Price, Hamels). Very balanced club with a 6 OPS Rank and a 8 WHIP Rank. Perfectly equipped to take a 7 game series.
In September we will check these rankings again and make a ALCS and NLCS prediction then use the SSS ranks of the playoffs to predict a World Series Champion.
(Written in May)
I'm wondering if there is a relationship here towards the end of May between a teams OPS RANK+ WHIP RANK score to whether or not they can sustain their place in the standings. I've long since believed I would build a team to achieve success on these two factors.
If my position players can OPS that means we are doing damage and scoring runs and if my pitchers can WHIP low my opponent won't. Let's record today's standings and look back on them at the trade deadline
AL EAST
Blue Jays=1 OPS Rank 14 WHIP Rank Score 15 (guess they won't sustain 1st place with a 14 WHIP)
Yankees=7 OPS Rank 6 WHIP Rank Score 13 (guess they over take 1st)
Orioles=8 OPS Rank 9 WHIP Rank Score 17 (guess they over take the Jay's but not the Yankees)
AL CENTRAL
Tigers=2 OPS Rank 5 WHIP Rank Score 7 (In the Driver Seat)
Twins=11 OPS Rank 11 WHIP Rank Score 22 (no way they stay in second)
AL WEST
A's=3 OPS Rank 1 WHIP Rank Score 4 (Clearly the best team in all of baseball)
Angels=4 OPS Rank 2 WHIP Rank Score 6 (Firm WC contender)
NL EAST
Braves=12 OPS Rank 2 WHIP Rank Score 14 (With a 2 Rank in WHIP they stay here or really close)
Marlins=2 OPS Rank 10 WHIP Rank Score 12 (yes they mash but pitching rules, they are not here in July)
NL CENTRAL
Brewers=9 OPS Rank 4 WHIP Rank Score 13 (Formidable if you trust the pitching holds)
Cardinals=10 OPS Rank 1 WHIP Rank Score 11 (bats likely to get hot at some point they move up to 1st)
NL WEST
Giants=4 OPS Rank 3 WHIP Rank Score 7 (Yes and Yes)
Rockies=1 OPS Rank 9 WHIP Rank Score 10 ( Dodgers are a 15 the Rockies hold onto 2nd)
The A's have the best score at 4 and just so happen to lead all of MLB in Wins with 30. Followed by the Giants and Tigers with the next best scores of 7, 29 Wins and 27 Wins respectively. The Brewers have 28 wins and there are 5 teams tied with 26 Wins.
A baseball season is a long horse race for sure and there are some good teams lurking in the back that have plenty of time to improve their scores. Especially those that are suffering do to injury and slated to get those injured stars back at some point.
1. The Orioles did over take the Jays and they also caught the Yankees. Their current Rank score is 28 and they made no real moves to sure up their WHIP score.
2. The Jays are in second and their current rank is 29 and really out of balance 3/26. They hit the hell out of the ball but cannot pitch and made no real moves to improve that situation yesterday.
3. The Yankees took 2 big hits I don't believe they can over come in Tanaka and Sabathia. They tried to recover with a trade for Brandon McCarthy but I'm not sure it will be enough.
4. The Tigers statement was that they were firmly in the drivers seat in May and that is even more so today. Their Rank 24 was split 2 OPS and 22 WHIP. In part Verlander has not really been Verlander and the BP is still a weak link but big Dave was bold to acquire David Price and maybe Soria in the BP can help sure things up there. No one in the division is capable of catching them or making it interesting for that matter.
5. The Twins who? KC whom I had predicted to make the playoffs in the beginning of the year is coming on some but with a rank score of 39 and no solid moves at the deadline seemingly have no shot at even the second WC birth.
6. The A's clearly the best team in baseball in May are still clearly the best baseball team Aug1 with a score of 7 and some big time moves to add Lester and Samardzja definitely put some more separation between the others in the AL that might upset them in a playoff series.
7. The Angels have done a wonderful job in staying consistently on the heels of the A's, a sure WC spot with a rank score of 9 but no deals at the deadline is suspect.
8. The Braves in May looked to be able to hold off the Nats today that is not the case as the Nats are in first and have a rank score of 21 to the Braves 35. The pitching has really fallen off for the Braves while the Nats have picked it up some offensively. The Marlins may have something to say about the final standings before all is said and done. Stanton can still Mash and a pick-up of former Phillies top prospect Jared Cosart may help fill a void lost by the injury to Jose Fernandez.
9. We said the Brewers were formidable if you trusted their pitching well it's kind of held up. Their rank score today is 20 and while they made no major moves at the deadline Geraldo Parra is a nice extra piece.
10. The Cardinals rank score is 31. Things do not seem to be materializing for the Red Birds at all. Mozeliak dealt for Masterson and Lackey but gave up last seasons super hero's to get him in Craig and Kelly. Their biggest problem is OPS where their rank is 21. Unless the Brewers get the jitters down the stretch it appears to me they can hold on.
11. The Giants in May were unbelievable but much has changed since then and not much happened at the deadline to bolster their club. Their rank is 28 while the Dodgers have jumped to 14 which is the best score of any NL club.
12. The Rockies are far and away in the rear view mirror but get this they are still the 1 Rank in OPS. Unfortunately they are next to last in WHIP
If the statistics hold A's 7 Rank and Angels 9 Rank would hold off Tigers 24 Rank and the Orioles 28 Rank however it must be noted that David Price can and should make a big difference for the Tigers WHIP rank.
In the NL the Dodgers clearly are in a class above the rest which maybe is what they didn't part with any of their highly touted prospects for a major arm (Lester, Price, Hamels). Very balanced club with a 6 OPS Rank and a 8 WHIP Rank. Perfectly equipped to take a 7 game series.
In September we will check these rankings again and make a ALCS and NLCS prediction then use the SSS ranks of the playoffs to predict a World Series Champion.
(Written in May)
I'm wondering if there is a relationship here towards the end of May between a teams OPS RANK+ WHIP RANK score to whether or not they can sustain their place in the standings. I've long since believed I would build a team to achieve success on these two factors.
If my position players can OPS that means we are doing damage and scoring runs and if my pitchers can WHIP low my opponent won't. Let's record today's standings and look back on them at the trade deadline
AL EAST
Blue Jays=1 OPS Rank 14 WHIP Rank Score 15 (guess they won't sustain 1st place with a 14 WHIP)
Yankees=7 OPS Rank 6 WHIP Rank Score 13 (guess they over take 1st)
Orioles=8 OPS Rank 9 WHIP Rank Score 17 (guess they over take the Jay's but not the Yankees)
AL CENTRAL
Tigers=2 OPS Rank 5 WHIP Rank Score 7 (In the Driver Seat)
Twins=11 OPS Rank 11 WHIP Rank Score 22 (no way they stay in second)
AL WEST
A's=3 OPS Rank 1 WHIP Rank Score 4 (Clearly the best team in all of baseball)
Angels=4 OPS Rank 2 WHIP Rank Score 6 (Firm WC contender)
NL EAST
Braves=12 OPS Rank 2 WHIP Rank Score 14 (With a 2 Rank in WHIP they stay here or really close)
Marlins=2 OPS Rank 10 WHIP Rank Score 12 (yes they mash but pitching rules, they are not here in July)
NL CENTRAL
Brewers=9 OPS Rank 4 WHIP Rank Score 13 (Formidable if you trust the pitching holds)
Cardinals=10 OPS Rank 1 WHIP Rank Score 11 (bats likely to get hot at some point they move up to 1st)
NL WEST
Giants=4 OPS Rank 3 WHIP Rank Score 7 (Yes and Yes)
Rockies=1 OPS Rank 9 WHIP Rank Score 10 ( Dodgers are a 15 the Rockies hold onto 2nd)
The A's have the best score at 4 and just so happen to lead all of MLB in Wins with 30. Followed by the Giants and Tigers with the next best scores of 7, 29 Wins and 27 Wins respectively. The Brewers have 28 wins and there are 5 teams tied with 26 Wins.
A baseball season is a long horse race for sure and there are some good teams lurking in the back that have plenty of time to improve their scores. Especially those that are suffering do to injury and slated to get those injured stars back at some point.
Monday, April 28, 2014
Baseball's Bad Disease
A few months back I had a conversation with an individual in the game at a very high level at a cocktail party. The topic of conversation was whether or not baseball is being over run with over thought and analysis.
What was interesting and apparent was the fear said person had of the sabermetric wave. It appears traditionalists in the game are being punched and pushed into the underground like lepers. These guys and there are many fear speaking out against defensive shifts and the overly scientific approach to preparing for and playing a 162 game season.
This person said as he was coming up through the minors all the guys had natural ability. The separator for some was a good coach maybe a guy that could spot and pick up on how pitchers tipped their pitches. For others the players themselves the great ones anyway would document their own at bats against certain pitchers. Some had almost photographic memories and the ability to store knowledge in their heads. That type of data acquisition is being vilified as "that is not the way we do it here" type of rhetoric being spouted more often than not by some math junkie the team is employing.
Baseball was first penned the National Past Time in articles dating back to 1856. Bill James became a name in 1977, Michael Lewis published Moneyball in 2003. Brad Pitt made Billy Beane famous and Jonah Hill as Paul DePodesta the nerdy Ivy Leaguer. Unfortunate because Paul's background is anything but nerdy. The movie itself brought a light to sabermetrics in 2011.
Some of it embellished of course but the theory definitely challenged the purist brand of baseball. Now one must acknowledge the purist brand of baseball has always been challenged. The game started off being played with no gloves, bare hands and they used to throw the ball at the base runner to record an out. Over time the rules were tweaked, bats got better, balls were livelier and gloves evolved to what we have today.
Arguments could be made to say those technologies in equipment did not effect the intrinsic value of the game. Pitchers and fielders still had to throw and catch. Hitters still had to hit. Statistics would recognize batting average and suggest if a hitter maintained a batting average of 300 or more he was likely considered an above average player and those that could put the ball over the outfield wall 50 or more times had their own unique value to their teams.
Modern analytics goal is to shine a light on deeper values to the sport. On base percentage being the most advanced stat by the term. Obviously you can't score a run without someone on base unless you hit nothing but home runs. Damage stats were next to evolve with slugging percentage and OPS both measures of a hitters ability to hit the ball for more than just a single base. And finally we have weighted runs created or WRC which is a fancy term to evaluate a multi dimensional player like Mike Trout for his ability to not only hit for power but to turn singles into doubles with his speed and steal bases.
Technology has since in the year 2014 made it possible to have information overload. Not just in baseball but our everyday lives. Let's not go there but rather ask ourselves when is it to much and when does it become detrimental to the natural abilities of a player to play the game?
Have you ever heard a player say or a coach say see the ball hit the ball? I heard Albert Pujols last night on what special preparation he was going to do for Masahiro Tanaka. Albert said "I am going to try and see the ball and hit the ball". It almost seemed the interviewer wanted him to say he was going to watch 14 hours of video and look at the count propensities to isolate the likelihood of seeing a FB vs the splitter.
Can it really be that simple see the ball hit the ball? I guess it depends on who you ask. The new rage is defensive shifts. The minds will say we have all of this spray chart data so you should play your infielders in these spots on this hitter. Now this isn't knew it was most popular when Ted Williams came to bat in the 40's and first known in the 20's against Cy Williams.
The difference today is the media that covers baseball has bought in. They believe in the story of analytics which then drives the monkey see, monkey do attitudes of the league. Now just about every team has a Harvard guy or a Yale guy studying trends and O swing percentages and running video rooms telling hitters to expect this pitch on this count and so on.
Granted the game has always scouted to try to gain an edge so the only thing that has really changed is the technology to compile and the technology to deliver that info. The disease is the over analysis and the removal of freedom to chose. If a manager says "I went on my gut instinct" he will be chastised for days on end because he didn't acknowledge the data.
If a general manager were to say "hey I don't want my 4 hole hitter to walk I want him to drive the ball and be aggressive because he can score a run with one swing of the bat" he might be burned at the stake or at the very least humiliated for such a philosophy. The disease is the ability to be human. Instead you must be a robot and a slave to the data or else.
"Well how did we get here" David Byrne once sang and "same as it ever was", was the refrain. Humans must have this undying devotion to invent and then re-invent everything on earth. The disease is us and our thirst for change for the sake of change.
Like rats in a lab we are conditioned to want more than we need. We no longer have the sensation to relax and enjoy.
What was interesting and apparent was the fear said person had of the sabermetric wave. It appears traditionalists in the game are being punched and pushed into the underground like lepers. These guys and there are many fear speaking out against defensive shifts and the overly scientific approach to preparing for and playing a 162 game season.
This person said as he was coming up through the minors all the guys had natural ability. The separator for some was a good coach maybe a guy that could spot and pick up on how pitchers tipped their pitches. For others the players themselves the great ones anyway would document their own at bats against certain pitchers. Some had almost photographic memories and the ability to store knowledge in their heads. That type of data acquisition is being vilified as "that is not the way we do it here" type of rhetoric being spouted more often than not by some math junkie the team is employing.
Baseball was first penned the National Past Time in articles dating back to 1856. Bill James became a name in 1977, Michael Lewis published Moneyball in 2003. Brad Pitt made Billy Beane famous and Jonah Hill as Paul DePodesta the nerdy Ivy Leaguer. Unfortunate because Paul's background is anything but nerdy. The movie itself brought a light to sabermetrics in 2011.
Some of it embellished of course but the theory definitely challenged the purist brand of baseball. Now one must acknowledge the purist brand of baseball has always been challenged. The game started off being played with no gloves, bare hands and they used to throw the ball at the base runner to record an out. Over time the rules were tweaked, bats got better, balls were livelier and gloves evolved to what we have today.
Arguments could be made to say those technologies in equipment did not effect the intrinsic value of the game. Pitchers and fielders still had to throw and catch. Hitters still had to hit. Statistics would recognize batting average and suggest if a hitter maintained a batting average of 300 or more he was likely considered an above average player and those that could put the ball over the outfield wall 50 or more times had their own unique value to their teams.
Modern analytics goal is to shine a light on deeper values to the sport. On base percentage being the most advanced stat by the term. Obviously you can't score a run without someone on base unless you hit nothing but home runs. Damage stats were next to evolve with slugging percentage and OPS both measures of a hitters ability to hit the ball for more than just a single base. And finally we have weighted runs created or WRC which is a fancy term to evaluate a multi dimensional player like Mike Trout for his ability to not only hit for power but to turn singles into doubles with his speed and steal bases.
Technology has since in the year 2014 made it possible to have information overload. Not just in baseball but our everyday lives. Let's not go there but rather ask ourselves when is it to much and when does it become detrimental to the natural abilities of a player to play the game?
Have you ever heard a player say or a coach say see the ball hit the ball? I heard Albert Pujols last night on what special preparation he was going to do for Masahiro Tanaka. Albert said "I am going to try and see the ball and hit the ball". It almost seemed the interviewer wanted him to say he was going to watch 14 hours of video and look at the count propensities to isolate the likelihood of seeing a FB vs the splitter.
Can it really be that simple see the ball hit the ball? I guess it depends on who you ask. The new rage is defensive shifts. The minds will say we have all of this spray chart data so you should play your infielders in these spots on this hitter. Now this isn't knew it was most popular when Ted Williams came to bat in the 40's and first known in the 20's against Cy Williams.
The difference today is the media that covers baseball has bought in. They believe in the story of analytics which then drives the monkey see, monkey do attitudes of the league. Now just about every team has a Harvard guy or a Yale guy studying trends and O swing percentages and running video rooms telling hitters to expect this pitch on this count and so on.
Granted the game has always scouted to try to gain an edge so the only thing that has really changed is the technology to compile and the technology to deliver that info. The disease is the over analysis and the removal of freedom to chose. If a manager says "I went on my gut instinct" he will be chastised for days on end because he didn't acknowledge the data.
If a general manager were to say "hey I don't want my 4 hole hitter to walk I want him to drive the ball and be aggressive because he can score a run with one swing of the bat" he might be burned at the stake or at the very least humiliated for such a philosophy. The disease is the ability to be human. Instead you must be a robot and a slave to the data or else.
"Well how did we get here" David Byrne once sang and "same as it ever was", was the refrain. Humans must have this undying devotion to invent and then re-invent everything on earth. The disease is us and our thirst for change for the sake of change.
Like rats in a lab we are conditioned to want more than we need. We no longer have the sensation to relax and enjoy.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
April Over Reactions
It happens every season pundits and fans a like will over react to what they see in April both positively and negatively depending on what ball park you are sitting in. I like to state every season that rarely things in September are as they were in April.
Without stating to much of the obvious (Injuries, Warmer Weather acclimation and so on) a 162 games season will have periods of inequity.
Having said that one cannot completely ignore warning signs in things unlikely to get better with time. For instance Papelbon only hitting 91 on the radar gun is not a good sign. From most outsiders meaning not including Sandberg and the players themselves expectations for this club realistically speaking are low. Most have probably drawn the conclusion that the Nationals will win the division and the Braves will be right there.
Amaro himself on one hand would be pleasantly surprised if these veterans rose above the nay sayers and made a run at something. On the other hand I'm sure he is thinking towards the minors and this years 7th pick overall. He is or probably already has had discussions about the trade value in players like Lee, Ruiz, Byrd and possibly Utley.
In the end Track Record generally rules the season. Barring catastrophic injuries to key players throughout the league. As for the Phillies and their potential to grab a WC well that depends on how quickly they can get their defense sured up as well as make a decision on Papelbon.
Their margin for error is very thin but I still maintain with Lee Hamels and Burnett going out there every 5th day at least through July it can be done.
Without stating to much of the obvious (Injuries, Warmer Weather acclimation and so on) a 162 games season will have periods of inequity.
Having said that one cannot completely ignore warning signs in things unlikely to get better with time. For instance Papelbon only hitting 91 on the radar gun is not a good sign. From most outsiders meaning not including Sandberg and the players themselves expectations for this club realistically speaking are low. Most have probably drawn the conclusion that the Nationals will win the division and the Braves will be right there.
Amaro himself on one hand would be pleasantly surprised if these veterans rose above the nay sayers and made a run at something. On the other hand I'm sure he is thinking towards the minors and this years 7th pick overall. He is or probably already has had discussions about the trade value in players like Lee, Ruiz, Byrd and possibly Utley.
In the end Track Record generally rules the season. Barring catastrophic injuries to key players throughout the league. As for the Phillies and their potential to grab a WC well that depends on how quickly they can get their defense sured up as well as make a decision on Papelbon.
Their margin for error is very thin but I still maintain with Lee Hamels and Burnett going out there every 5th day at least through July it can be done.
Friday, March 28, 2014
2014 Predictions
Division Winners NL
Nationals NL East
Cardinals NL Central
Dodgers NL West-Will win 100 Games
WC Phillies
WC Pirates
Division Winners AL
Yankees
Tigers
A's
WC-Red Sox
WC-Royals
Nationals NL East
Cardinals NL Central
Dodgers NL West-Will win 100 Games
WC Phillies
WC Pirates
Division Winners AL
Yankees
Tigers
A's
WC-Red Sox
WC-Royals
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Jimmy Rollins
Is the greatest SS in Phillies History, is on their Wall of Fame and will be in the discussion for the HOF. I don't think there is any debating that. The question to debate is how should the Phillies in two parts (the front office and Ryne Sandberg) handle his last season under contract and the opportunity for 2015 to vest.
We'll start with the easy part the FO. RAJ needs to say all the right things regarding Jimmy and temper any speculation that the team wants to move him or keep him from hitting the required number of PA's to vest the 4th year. Taking the high road is key here and understanding Jimmy is to know he is not, not going to be a distraction if he feels in anyway they are sitting him because of that.
Jimmy is a me guy and there is nothing wrong with that. The league has seen its fair share of this type of player over the history of the game and its part of what makes them great. You don't have to like it but you do have to accept it and accept the 08 WS.
Sandberg is in a pickle. His entire MLB managerial career is ahead of him while Jimmy's career as a player is mostly behind him. No doubt Ryne cannot hitch his wagon to Jimmy in his first full season as skip. He must however communicate this delicate process to Jimmy or risk setting a bad precedent amongst the other guys in that locker room. He has two other high profile veterans to manage very carefully in Utley and Howard so whatever he does to Jimmy he will need to appear on the surface to do the same to those two guys.
Or risk a fire storm of unwanted media attention on the subject. Recent history shows that it is extremely difficult for a new manager to come in after a players manager like Charlie and play bad cop. It didn't work for the Red Sox and Bobby Valentine and I don't think it works anywhere. At least not with veterans.
Now I don't believe Ryne is remotely close to Bobby V in terms of personality but I do believe Ryne wants to mold younger players of his own ilk. The best solution for both parties is a trade but it needs to be discussed quietly and presented so that Jimmy can maintain his dignity and his pride.
Whatever happens Ryne needs to understand one thing Jimmy is going to say it like it is and he is not going to shy away from the questions so if Ryne feels a certain way about Jimmy he better call him into his office and be straight with him and then be consistent with that message to the media.
We'll start with the easy part the FO. RAJ needs to say all the right things regarding Jimmy and temper any speculation that the team wants to move him or keep him from hitting the required number of PA's to vest the 4th year. Taking the high road is key here and understanding Jimmy is to know he is not, not going to be a distraction if he feels in anyway they are sitting him because of that.
Jimmy is a me guy and there is nothing wrong with that. The league has seen its fair share of this type of player over the history of the game and its part of what makes them great. You don't have to like it but you do have to accept it and accept the 08 WS.
Sandberg is in a pickle. His entire MLB managerial career is ahead of him while Jimmy's career as a player is mostly behind him. No doubt Ryne cannot hitch his wagon to Jimmy in his first full season as skip. He must however communicate this delicate process to Jimmy or risk setting a bad precedent amongst the other guys in that locker room. He has two other high profile veterans to manage very carefully in Utley and Howard so whatever he does to Jimmy he will need to appear on the surface to do the same to those two guys.
Or risk a fire storm of unwanted media attention on the subject. Recent history shows that it is extremely difficult for a new manager to come in after a players manager like Charlie and play bad cop. It didn't work for the Red Sox and Bobby Valentine and I don't think it works anywhere. At least not with veterans.
Now I don't believe Ryne is remotely close to Bobby V in terms of personality but I do believe Ryne wants to mold younger players of his own ilk. The best solution for both parties is a trade but it needs to be discussed quietly and presented so that Jimmy can maintain his dignity and his pride.
Whatever happens Ryne needs to understand one thing Jimmy is going to say it like it is and he is not going to shy away from the questions so if Ryne feels a certain way about Jimmy he better call him into his office and be straight with him and then be consistent with that message to the media.
Friday, March 14, 2014
Much ado About Offense
Much is being made about the offensive struggles of this team this Spring but the reality is if you remember Ben Francisco that nothing in the Spring is as it is come September. Ben had a torrid Spring a few seasons back and many got really excited and thought Ben was an everyday player.
We all know how that turned out. I personally don't get excited when a guy like John Mayberry Jr. has a great Spring. We know track records and sample sizes and all of those hitting stats seem to normalize over the course of a season. Now, I am not oblivious to the fact that Howard has not performed well in a very long time and Rollins has definitely regressed and Utley doesn't seem to have the power he once had.
The key to any post season is a teams ability to pitch and the ability to remain healthy so I am more concerned about Hamels at this point than anything else. I remember watching the game when Lackey went down against the Jays last year. He came right off the mound after throwing a pitch clutching his right arm. I honestly did not believe Lackey would pitch again let alone pitch that season yet there he was in November taking the hill in the WS.
What is my point-It's that Hamels and the Phillies seem to be snake bit by bad luck and it would not surprise me if Hamels is down for an extended period of time. I honestly believe they could go Biddle to start the season in his absence and he would be just as good. New pitchers generally get the benefit of not being seen so as long as they can be around the plate with decent stuff they tend to fare very well.
MAG's is another problem. Again they appear to have missed on his abilities, well maybe not missed but rolled the dice and lost. I won't fault them for trying and spending money.
Roberto Hernandez is your classic Livan Hernandez or Bronson Arroyo or a box of chocolates. You can't ever count on anything from game to game. One outing he can get lit up like a Christmas Tree and not make it through 4 and the next he darn near no hits the other team. Bundle him with Kendrick and you pretty much have the same guy. Fine if Hamels-Lee-Burnett are Hamels-Lee-Burnett but if not they are quickly staring down the barrel of a 90 loss season.
In a microwave society, a tweet society, an instagram society the media and the course of fantasy nerds will like a reflex over-react. They will over react again May 1, June1 and so on. They won't be able to contain themselves and see that a team with good pitching can work out the kinks before it is too late a la the Dodgers of last season.
They won't see at some point this team could look drastically different. They won't really see Giles coming, they won't see a number of moves that are possible at the trade deadline to get this team younger and better.
So while things again look bleak for the upcoming season I am going to chill and say we'll be ok. There are some things I do like. Byrd brings his track record of hitting every where he has been. Revere can play. Chooch is still a fine defensive catcher and he can swing the bat. Dom Brown and Cody Asche are having tough Springs but they have minor league track record and they won't be this bad once the season breaks. Ruf has track record and he has right handed power. Mind you he is not an MVP nor is he an All-Star. He is a decent every day player that would compliment a team that has stars else where in the field.
Remember this. You need stars to get your club to the post season but when the lights come on and the weight of that championship rests on the shoulders of a single star he often comes up short. Often times it is the Cody Ross's of the world, Scott Brosius, David Freeses of the world that bring home the prize. Very few Big Papi's exist in sports.
We all know how that turned out. I personally don't get excited when a guy like John Mayberry Jr. has a great Spring. We know track records and sample sizes and all of those hitting stats seem to normalize over the course of a season. Now, I am not oblivious to the fact that Howard has not performed well in a very long time and Rollins has definitely regressed and Utley doesn't seem to have the power he once had.
The key to any post season is a teams ability to pitch and the ability to remain healthy so I am more concerned about Hamels at this point than anything else. I remember watching the game when Lackey went down against the Jays last year. He came right off the mound after throwing a pitch clutching his right arm. I honestly did not believe Lackey would pitch again let alone pitch that season yet there he was in November taking the hill in the WS.
What is my point-It's that Hamels and the Phillies seem to be snake bit by bad luck and it would not surprise me if Hamels is down for an extended period of time. I honestly believe they could go Biddle to start the season in his absence and he would be just as good. New pitchers generally get the benefit of not being seen so as long as they can be around the plate with decent stuff they tend to fare very well.
MAG's is another problem. Again they appear to have missed on his abilities, well maybe not missed but rolled the dice and lost. I won't fault them for trying and spending money.
Roberto Hernandez is your classic Livan Hernandez or Bronson Arroyo or a box of chocolates. You can't ever count on anything from game to game. One outing he can get lit up like a Christmas Tree and not make it through 4 and the next he darn near no hits the other team. Bundle him with Kendrick and you pretty much have the same guy. Fine if Hamels-Lee-Burnett are Hamels-Lee-Burnett but if not they are quickly staring down the barrel of a 90 loss season.
In a microwave society, a tweet society, an instagram society the media and the course of fantasy nerds will like a reflex over-react. They will over react again May 1, June1 and so on. They won't be able to contain themselves and see that a team with good pitching can work out the kinks before it is too late a la the Dodgers of last season.
They won't see at some point this team could look drastically different. They won't really see Giles coming, they won't see a number of moves that are possible at the trade deadline to get this team younger and better.
So while things again look bleak for the upcoming season I am going to chill and say we'll be ok. There are some things I do like. Byrd brings his track record of hitting every where he has been. Revere can play. Chooch is still a fine defensive catcher and he can swing the bat. Dom Brown and Cody Asche are having tough Springs but they have minor league track record and they won't be this bad once the season breaks. Ruf has track record and he has right handed power. Mind you he is not an MVP nor is he an All-Star. He is a decent every day player that would compliment a team that has stars else where in the field.
Remember this. You need stars to get your club to the post season but when the lights come on and the weight of that championship rests on the shoulders of a single star he often comes up short. Often times it is the Cody Ross's of the world, Scott Brosius, David Freeses of the world that bring home the prize. Very few Big Papi's exist in sports.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
How will the Pitchers Shake Out
Off the top we can say Hamels Lee Burnett Kendrick and Papelbon are locks. I think we can say Adams is going to start on the DL so we'll leave his name out of the discussion for the time being.
5th Starter
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez MAGS-The most intriguing name of the bunch because the Phillies reportedly first gave him $48 Million then reduced that amount after a physical to $12 million. MAGS is an unknown and I don't believe ST is going to answer all the questions as to whether or not he is ready to start in the MLB. I think he starts the season in Lehigh and at some point in May or June makes his first big league start. Now I could see him heading north if for some reason Hamels needs time on the DL.
Hernandez is interesting because again I believe they signed him more or less as insurance on a number of possibilities. At the time I'm not sure they thought they could get Burnett and now that they have him someone is going to be an odd man out. Kendrick could get dealt I suppose and possibly Hernandez gets dealt before the end of ST. We'll see but they didn't pay MAG's to spend the full season in AAA.
BP
I think it is safe to say Bastardo and Diekman come north which leaves 4 spots to be filled from: Lincoln (from Toronto for Kratz), DeFratus, Martin, Rosenberg. Forget the other names as I don't believe they factor into the discussion until someone gets hurt. But Adams will at some point come off the DL so the Phillies should be talking trades for someone like Adams or Rosenberg. The time is now for a guy like Martin and really starting for him at this point seems like a lost cause. He has closer potential and or a nice long option for 1-2 innings.
5th Starter
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez MAGS-The most intriguing name of the bunch because the Phillies reportedly first gave him $48 Million then reduced that amount after a physical to $12 million. MAGS is an unknown and I don't believe ST is going to answer all the questions as to whether or not he is ready to start in the MLB. I think he starts the season in Lehigh and at some point in May or June makes his first big league start. Now I could see him heading north if for some reason Hamels needs time on the DL.
Hernandez is interesting because again I believe they signed him more or less as insurance on a number of possibilities. At the time I'm not sure they thought they could get Burnett and now that they have him someone is going to be an odd man out. Kendrick could get dealt I suppose and possibly Hernandez gets dealt before the end of ST. We'll see but they didn't pay MAG's to spend the full season in AAA.
BP
I think it is safe to say Bastardo and Diekman come north which leaves 4 spots to be filled from: Lincoln (from Toronto for Kratz), DeFratus, Martin, Rosenberg. Forget the other names as I don't believe they factor into the discussion until someone gets hurt. But Adams will at some point come off the DL so the Phillies should be talking trades for someone like Adams or Rosenberg. The time is now for a guy like Martin and really starting for him at this point seems like a lost cause. He has closer potential and or a nice long option for 1-2 innings.
Ah Pitchers and Catchers Report
The story lines are many. Ryne Sandberg takes the helm and brings Bowa out of the studio for some much needed fire and energy to contrast his own low key personality.
The Starting 9
Revere-Ben was coming on nicely before batting a ball off his ankle. He is firmly in place as the CF
Rollins-Needs a measly three hundred and some odd PA's to vest his option for next season. Anything can happen here. They could falter and thus he becomes trade-able or they stay in the hunt and he finishes his career as the best SS in Phillies history with his old pal Larry looking on.
Utley-Health, health and more health.
Howard-The big piece is a big wild card that will play a role in getting us a wild card. If Howard is healthy he is a presence in the line-up. Will Sandberg keep Ruf on the roster to take some of 8's AB's against tough lefties? I think he should.
Byrd-Marlon can still play both sides of the ball and run the bases. Forget his age.
Brown-Needs to pick up where he left off. If he does this team will push the Nats and Braves all the way to the finish line. We know he has all the tools except for tracking fly balls. He doesn't need to be gold glove if he is getting on base hitting 30 Bombs and driving in close to 100. I would also strongly consider moving him back to RF as this allows them to toggle Byrd from LF to CF and Ruf to LF.
Ruiz-Steady as they come and doesn't need to be anymore than he's been his entire career.
Asche-Needs to have a decent start, play well defensively and allow his offensive game to grow into the numbers he demonstrated in the minors. Cody is a make-up guy. I trust he will get the most out of his limited tools to become a fine everyday player.
Bench
Things will get interesting here.
Nieves-You have to have a back-up catcher. I would have preferred a guy like Doumit or Navarro but that's water under the bridge.
Mayberry-Needs to be traded in my opinion. Amaro has shown a bit to much loyalty with this latest guaranteed contract. Mayberry might have been RAJ's first trade sending Golson to the Rangers in exchange for John Jr and lest we forget a Stanford guy. He has been a nice piece and worthy of his roster spot the past couple of seasons but more than a few players make him expendable.
Frandsen-A Sandberg fav he will prove to be a useful piece as a pinch hitter and occasional 3B to give Asche some time off his feet against tough lefties.
Ruf-Will be interesting to see what happens. Defensively he is limited for sure but his power is needed. Moving Mayberry allows him a bench role and AB's at 1B and LF.
Abreu-A left handed bat off the bench and a solid OBP guy. On a minor league deal if he does make this club it needs to be purely in a pinch hit type of roll.
Galvis-I love Freddy and he is the only real SS on the club but I'm not so sure he shouldn't be in AAA to start the season. I don't see Freddy as an everyday player. Having said that it bears repeating he plays SS at a very high level.
Hernandez-I say Cesar should be on the team. I like that he is a switch hitter and I like that he can play CF in limited appearances and again a nice back-up to Utley. I think he has a better hit tool than Freddy and he runs better. The other option is what value does he have in a trade? I would be comfortable moving him in a deal that allows him to be an everyday player in exchange for a single A high upside starting pitcher. In this scenario Freddy makes the team as a super utility type.
Tony Gwynn Jr.-Meh I say. I don't see the need. Byrd has enough versatility to move to CF when called upon and Ruf is ok in LF from time to time.
If I had a say my Bench would be: Nieves, Ruf, Frandsen, Galvis Hernandez
The Starting 9
Revere-Ben was coming on nicely before batting a ball off his ankle. He is firmly in place as the CF
Rollins-Needs a measly three hundred and some odd PA's to vest his option for next season. Anything can happen here. They could falter and thus he becomes trade-able or they stay in the hunt and he finishes his career as the best SS in Phillies history with his old pal Larry looking on.
Utley-Health, health and more health.
Howard-The big piece is a big wild card that will play a role in getting us a wild card. If Howard is healthy he is a presence in the line-up. Will Sandberg keep Ruf on the roster to take some of 8's AB's against tough lefties? I think he should.
Byrd-Marlon can still play both sides of the ball and run the bases. Forget his age.
Brown-Needs to pick up where he left off. If he does this team will push the Nats and Braves all the way to the finish line. We know he has all the tools except for tracking fly balls. He doesn't need to be gold glove if he is getting on base hitting 30 Bombs and driving in close to 100. I would also strongly consider moving him back to RF as this allows them to toggle Byrd from LF to CF and Ruf to LF.
Ruiz-Steady as they come and doesn't need to be anymore than he's been his entire career.
Asche-Needs to have a decent start, play well defensively and allow his offensive game to grow into the numbers he demonstrated in the minors. Cody is a make-up guy. I trust he will get the most out of his limited tools to become a fine everyday player.
Bench
Things will get interesting here.
Nieves-You have to have a back-up catcher. I would have preferred a guy like Doumit or Navarro but that's water under the bridge.
Mayberry-Needs to be traded in my opinion. Amaro has shown a bit to much loyalty with this latest guaranteed contract. Mayberry might have been RAJ's first trade sending Golson to the Rangers in exchange for John Jr and lest we forget a Stanford guy. He has been a nice piece and worthy of his roster spot the past couple of seasons but more than a few players make him expendable.
Frandsen-A Sandberg fav he will prove to be a useful piece as a pinch hitter and occasional 3B to give Asche some time off his feet against tough lefties.
Ruf-Will be interesting to see what happens. Defensively he is limited for sure but his power is needed. Moving Mayberry allows him a bench role and AB's at 1B and LF.
Abreu-A left handed bat off the bench and a solid OBP guy. On a minor league deal if he does make this club it needs to be purely in a pinch hit type of roll.
Galvis-I love Freddy and he is the only real SS on the club but I'm not so sure he shouldn't be in AAA to start the season. I don't see Freddy as an everyday player. Having said that it bears repeating he plays SS at a very high level.
Hernandez-I say Cesar should be on the team. I like that he is a switch hitter and I like that he can play CF in limited appearances and again a nice back-up to Utley. I think he has a better hit tool than Freddy and he runs better. The other option is what value does he have in a trade? I would be comfortable moving him in a deal that allows him to be an everyday player in exchange for a single A high upside starting pitcher. In this scenario Freddy makes the team as a super utility type.
Tony Gwynn Jr.-Meh I say. I don't see the need. Byrd has enough versatility to move to CF when called upon and Ruf is ok in LF from time to time.
If I had a say my Bench would be: Nieves, Ruf, Frandsen, Galvis Hernandez
Thursday, January 23, 2014
My TOP 20 Prospects
Maikel Franco 3B/1B
J.P. Crawford SS
Jesse Biddle LHP
Kelly Dugan OF
Roman Quinn SS/CF
Ken Giles RP
Cam Perkins OF
Dylen Cozens OF
Zach Green 3B
Cam Rupp C
Tyler Viza SP
Severino Gonzalez SP
Aaron Altherr CF
Carlos Tocci CF
Luis Encarnacion OF
Andrew Pullin 2B
Shane Watson SP
Austin Wright SP/RP
Andrew Knapp C/1B
Tommy Joseph C
Just missed: Adam Morgan, Cord Sandberg, Tyson Gillies and Tyler Buckley
Knocking on the door: Venn Biter CF, Drew Anderson SP and Deivi Grullen C
By June I'm sure this will be null and void.
J.P. Crawford SS
Jesse Biddle LHP
Kelly Dugan OF
Roman Quinn SS/CF
Ken Giles RP
Cam Perkins OF
Dylen Cozens OF
Zach Green 3B
Cam Rupp C
Tyler Viza SP
Severino Gonzalez SP
Aaron Altherr CF
Carlos Tocci CF
Luis Encarnacion OF
Andrew Pullin 2B
Shane Watson SP
Austin Wright SP/RP
Andrew Knapp C/1B
Tommy Joseph C
Just missed: Adam Morgan, Cord Sandberg, Tyson Gillies and Tyler Buckley
Knocking on the door: Venn Biter CF, Drew Anderson SP and Deivi Grullen C
By June I'm sure this will be null and void.
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