Here we go!

No Phillies fan should be surprised if this team loses 100 games this season.  In 2014 there were no 100 game losers the Diamondbacks lost 99 but just the year before in 2013 the Astros lost 111 and the Marlins 100.  The White Sox missed by a game with 99 losses.

In 2012 the Astros lost 107 and the Cubs 101.

So here comes 2015 and there is great excitement in Chicago on both the north and south sides.  The Cubbies will roll out a power house line-up of youth.  In 12 days or so Kris Bryant will lay claim to rookie of the year, Soler will be the most exciting new Cuban to take the league by storm and Lester and Maddon will show them the way back to a winning season and probably a wild card.  And that only scratches the surface of their youthful talent.  Russell is waiting in the wings and so is Schwarber.

The White Sox will have Carlos Rodon to back up Chris Sale and Tim Anderson their SS of the future is not far away. Avisail Garcia is healthy and a player to watch and of course Abreu and Eaton.

The Marlins are being mentioned as a team in the NL East that can hang with the power arms of the Nats and for the Astros there is at least George Springer, and Correa.  Maybe Mark Appel and Colin Moran make their former college presences felt in the big leagues this season.

So how hard will it be to watch the 2015 Phillies?  I would say if you ever tried to pull your own tooth it will be at least that hard but there are a few reasons.  Let's start with the old:

Chase Utley-Only the best 2b in Phllies history and a guy that if it weren't for injuries would be an easy HOF member.  The Angels could come calling for him soon and he may be willing to go this time.  The Angels are being reported to have interest and a deal may hinge on Josh Hamilton's suspension.  The Angels have limited money available so that would all need to be cleared up before a move is done.

Cole Hamels-The Best lefty since Lefty in Philly.  While we have him I will enjoy every start.  Cole has been a master of his craft and I am dumb founded a team on the cusp hasn't done what it takes to land Hamels on their opening day starting roster.  As time into the season encroaches on a teams hopes it will be a move hard to pass up for someone.  Injuries have already wreaked havoc for some teams with high hopes and you bet their will be others.  We just need to hope Cole stays healthy himself.

Now the new:

Ken Giles won't have many opportunities to save games but his innings will still be fun to watch.

Odubel Herrea has been a pleasant spring surprise as a Rule 5.  He looks the part of a top of the line-up catalyst.  And its fun to say his name.

Asche could take steps forward and be closer to his minor league averages than his MLB averages.  I think there is more there for Cody as he gains confidence and experience.

At some point down the road Hamels may be gone and we could possibly see Aaron Nola at CBP.  Possibly Jesse Biddle a once touted 1st round local kid gets himself back on track and finally makes a start or 2 or 10 in Philly.

Franco is a guy that if he had a decent spring would probably have made the 25 man roster.  He tends to (in his young career) have better second halves than first halves.  Strangely he had a torrid winter ball season.  He is a little over aggressive in my opinion.  If he straightens out his approach he could be a fine MLB player.

That's not much I know!

The 2015 baseball season will go on and there are plenty of story lines and new young players to watch.  I'll be watching baseball for sure.

FEB15 TOP 25

This is how I currently see our system's top 25

Crawford JP
Nola Aaron
Lively Ben
Franco M
Dugan K
Quinn R
Biddle
Mecias Yoel
Arano Victor
Imhof Matt
Eflin Zach
Cozens
Green Zach
Pullin
Perkins Cameron
Gonzalez Severino
Grullen
Leiter Mark
Liebrandt
Brown Aaron
Windle Tom
Tocci
Knapp Andrew
Altherr
Gamboa

 Just missed for me were Tommy Joseph, Lewis Alezones and Luis Encarnacion. If not for concussion issues I would have Tommy ahead of Knapp. Alezones has a real nice KWHIP factor over a real small sample size but he is just 19 and his frame for a righty is spot on. And Encarnacion is young enough that you can still dream on him realizing his power.

 Names to watch are Daniel Brito and Lenin Rodriguez. After Arquimedes Gamboa big Sal felt good about these two kids. Brito got $650 and Lenin got $300!

KWHIP SHEET

The invention of the KWHIP INDEX

Man its hard to believe I hadn't the courage to post anything since Sept22.  So much has changed.  I will miss #11 terribly but I understand it was time.  Same with Byrd.  The hot stove was strife with talk of a Cole Hamels trade and it got me to start thinking about pitching statistics and how one might measure the effectiveness of a pitcher.

If you've talked pitching with me in the past you know I favor 2 stats:  WHIP and K/9.  WHIP because it is the counter to OBP and K/9 because it eludes to a pitchers "Stuff" and his ability to get out of trouble without involving the fielders.  Pretty big when you have a runner on third with less than two outs.

So I invented a new stat which I am going to call the KWHIP Index.  Very simply you take the k/9 and divide it by the WHIP.  The higher the number the more impressive the pitcher.  Here are some examples both current day measured against historical

Let's start with the Lefties:

Hamels has a KWHIP Index of 7.44 and Cliff Lee 6.35

Kershaw is 8.88
Bumgarner is 7.49
Price is 7.44
Lester is 6.43

Koufax was a 8.41

Notable Right Handers

Kyle Kendrick was 3.58 with the Phillies and our current #5 Buchanan is a 4.33

Scherzer is 7.88
Verlander is 7.41
Pedro was an astounding 9.49 that is HOF work right there.
2 Young guys with SSS and TJ injuries Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez have 10.05 and 10.60
Clemons finished a long career with 7.33 and Nolan Ryan finished an even longer career with a 7.62

Relievers can have some insane indexes for instance Kimbrel currently sits at 16.39 and Aroldis Chapman is at 15.58

Our own relievers are doing quite well.  Giles sits at 15.99 (SSS) and Papelbon 10.08.

The all time saves leaders Hoffman and Rivera finished their careers with a 8.88 and 8.2 respectively.

So what's the point you say after all Greg Maddux and Bob Gibson were both HOF and had very low indexes 5.34 and 6.06.  I think the stat can have value in the minors scouting departments an area where you don't get to see a guy pitch but you can look up his numbers.

My aim is to apply this index to a number of pitchers in our system and see how that translates professionally.  So here it goes.  Here is what the KWHIP index says about some of our young talent in the system.  The caveat is I didn't do it for every pitcher:

PLAYER	KWHIP INDEX	LEVEL	IP	TEAM
Hamels	12.71	Minors	218	Phillies
Leibrandt	10.17	Minors	60.2	Phillies
Lively	9.93	Minors	192	Phillies
Imhof	7.05	Minors	42.1	Phillies
Biddle	7.01	Minors	552	Phillies
Arano	6.89	Minors	135.1	Phillies
Nola	6.85	Minors	55.1	Phillies
Mecias	6.66	Minors	149.2	Phillies
Gonzalez Severino	6.18	Minors	397.2	Phillies
Anderson Drew	6.01	Minors	148.2	Phillies
Windle	5.62	Minors	193	Phillies
Garcia Elniery	5.56	Minors	91	Phillies
Eflin	5.12	Minors	253.2	Phillies
Kilome	4.81	Minors	40.1	Phillies
Buchanan	4.33	Minors	518	Phillies
Kendrick	4.31	Minors	687	Phillies
Gueller	2.94	Minors	149	Phillies
Oliver	1.88	Minors	17.2	Phillies

Sample size is everything so we'll have to wait and see what Leibrandt and Imhof look like after 150+ IP.  I'm really excited by how Lively looks on this chart and not so much by Eflin or Windle.

We'll review this throughout the season and update at the end!