Friday, March 28, 2014

2014 Predictions

Division Winners NL
Nationals NL East
Cardinals NL Central
Dodgers NL West-Will win 100 Games
WC Phillies
WC Pirates

Division Winners AL
Yankees
Tigers
A's
WC-Red Sox
WC-Royals

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Jimmy Rollins

Is the greatest SS in Phillies History, is on their Wall of Fame and will be in the discussion for the HOF.  I don't think there is any debating that.  The question to debate is how should the Phillies in two parts (the front office and Ryne Sandberg) handle his last season under contract and the opportunity for 2015 to vest.

We'll start with the easy part the FO.  RAJ needs to say all the right things regarding Jimmy and temper any speculation that the team wants to move him or keep him from hitting the required number of PA's to vest the 4th year.  Taking the high road is key here and understanding Jimmy is to know he is not, not going to be a distraction if he feels in anyway they are sitting him because of that.

Jimmy is a me guy and there is nothing wrong with that.  The league has seen its fair share of this type of player over the history of the game and its part of what makes them great.  You don't have to like it but you do have to accept it and accept the 08 WS.

Sandberg is in a pickle.  His entire MLB managerial career is ahead of him while Jimmy's career as a player is mostly behind him.  No doubt Ryne cannot hitch his wagon to Jimmy in his first full season as skip.  He must however communicate this delicate process to Jimmy or risk setting a bad precedent amongst the other guys in that locker room.  He has two other high profile veterans to manage very carefully in Utley and Howard so whatever he does to Jimmy he will need to appear on the surface to do the same to those two guys.

Or risk a fire storm of unwanted media attention on the subject.  Recent history shows that it is extremely difficult for a new manager to come in after a players manager like Charlie and play bad cop.  It didn't work for the Red Sox and Bobby Valentine and I don't think it works anywhere.  At least not with veterans.

Now I don't believe Ryne is remotely close to Bobby V in terms of personality but I do believe Ryne wants to mold younger players of his own ilk.  The best solution for both parties is a trade but it needs to be discussed quietly and presented so that Jimmy can maintain his dignity and his pride.

Whatever happens Ryne needs to understand one thing Jimmy is going to say it like it is and he is not going to shy away from the questions so if Ryne feels a certain way about Jimmy he better call him into his office and be straight with him and then be consistent with that message to the media.

Friday, March 14, 2014

Much ado About Offense

Much is being made about the offensive struggles of this team this Spring but the reality is if you remember Ben Francisco that nothing in the Spring is as it is come September.  Ben had a torrid Spring a few seasons back and many got really excited and thought Ben was an everyday player.

We all know how that turned out.  I personally don't get excited when a guy like John Mayberry Jr. has a great Spring.  We know track records and sample sizes and all of those hitting stats seem to normalize over the course of a season.  Now, I am not oblivious to the fact that Howard has not performed well in a very long time and Rollins has definitely regressed and Utley doesn't seem to have the power he once had.

The key to any post season is a teams ability to pitch and the ability to remain healthy so I am more concerned about Hamels at this point than anything else.  I remember watching the game when Lackey went down against the Jays last year.  He came right off the mound after throwing a pitch clutching his right arm.  I honestly did not believe Lackey would pitch again let alone pitch that season yet there he was in November taking the hill in the WS.

What is my point-It's that Hamels and the Phillies seem to be snake bit by bad luck and it would not surprise me if Hamels is down for an extended period of time.  I honestly believe they could go Biddle to start the season in his absence and he would be just as good.  New pitchers generally get the benefit of not being seen so as long as they can be around the plate with decent stuff they tend to fare very well.

MAG's is another problem.  Again they appear to have missed on his abilities, well maybe not missed but rolled the dice and lost.  I won't fault them for trying and spending money.

Roberto Hernandez is your classic Livan Hernandez or Bronson Arroyo or a box of chocolates.  You can't ever count on anything from game to game.  One outing he can get lit up like a Christmas Tree and not make it through 4 and the next he darn near no hits the other team.  Bundle him with Kendrick and you pretty much have the same guy.  Fine if Hamels-Lee-Burnett are Hamels-Lee-Burnett but if not they are quickly staring down the barrel of a 90 loss season.

In a microwave society, a tweet society, an instagram society the media and the course of fantasy nerds will like a reflex over-react.  They will over react again May 1, June1 and so on.  They won't be able to contain themselves and see that a team with good pitching can work out the kinks before it is too late a la the Dodgers of last season.

They won't see at some point this team could look drastically different.  They won't really see Giles coming, they won't see a number of moves that are possible at the trade deadline to get this team younger and better.

So while things again look bleak for the upcoming season I am going to chill and say we'll be ok.  There are some things I do like.  Byrd brings his track record of hitting every where he has been.  Revere can play.  Chooch is still a fine defensive catcher and he can swing the bat.  Dom Brown and Cody Asche are having tough Springs but they have minor league track record and they won't be this bad once the season breaks.  Ruf has track record and he has right handed power.  Mind you he is not an MVP nor is he an All-Star.  He is a decent every day player that would compliment a team that has stars else where in the field.

Remember this.  You need stars to get your club to the post season but when the lights come on and the weight of that championship rests on the shoulders of a single star he often comes up short.  Often times it is the Cody Ross's of the world, Scott Brosius, David Freeses of the world that bring home the prize.  Very few Big Papi's exist in sports.