Not much under the tree for Phillies fans. Ruiz is back and Roberto Hernandez the right handed version of a soft tossing lefty was added for depth to the starting rotation. Byrd is the proverbial aging right handed hitting left fielder al beit a good one.
The Tanaka Saga has more clarity and I expect the Phillies to make a strong play for his services state side but my enthusiasm is tempered with the new Japanese posting rules. Now more teams enter the equation creating more of a Free Agent type of scenario, the most any team can bid is $20M so expect quite a few teams to ante up that amount to talk to him. I predict he will sign for a Greinke type contract 6/$145 possibly less but Tanaka has leverage in this new system. More money will go to the player for sure. Couple that with the fact that most Japanese players if given the choice are more comfortable on the west coast.
More interesting is how this is effecting the other FA pitchers on the Market and most notably Garza. Garza has 0 compensation attached but also concerns about the elbow. Santana and Jimenez are most likely seeing limited interest because of compensation. Again teams drafting just outside the top 10 would be very reluctant to sign either player and all other teams would still have concerns for either losing 2nd round pool money or the pick all together. We saw this with Kyle Lohse last season.
If the Phillies lose out on the Tanaka sweepstakes I don't expect them to be in play for Garza with the elbow issues or any of the other starters for that matter. While they might not say it publicly I believe they are in an under the radar re-building plan. I know that seems counter intuitive to the hard moves we are seeing them make but players like Chooch, Byrd, Utley, Rollins, Lee or Hamels and even Howard can all be moved at the deadline to restock the system with young talent.
On paper next to the Nationals they don't have the starting rotation to compete depth wise with the Nats or the Dodgers for the NL pennant and the Cardinals arguably are right there as well with their pitching staff.
Now more often than not the best teams on paper don't always finish the race but if you're sizing up your club and it is aging and expensive the way to go is to move top tier assets for young stars and have their arrival coincide with an opportunity to add a few veteran stars via Free Agency. A great deal of luck is involved but I've always believed luck is a result of preparedness meeting opportunity.
