Stat geeks love run differential. Basically if you score more runs than you allow you win games right? Let's dig: Currently the Cardinals are 29-16 and +57 which is good enough for the best record in baseball only slightly. Texas is 29-17 and +46.
The Astros are 13-13 and -91 with the Marlins also at 13-33 and -73. The two worst in MLB.
But then every season has it's anomaly take the Giants for example they are tied for the lead in the west with the Diamondbacks. Both have a 26-20 record. The Giants however have a +5 DIFF and the D-Backs have a +28.
The Orioles in 2012 in the mighty AL East won 93 games with a +7 DIFF and beat out the Rays who had +120 for a playoff spot. How does that happen? The explanation is simple. When they won they won by small margins 1 run games mostly and they won more of those than they lost.
When they did lose they lost big 10-0 blow outs. Of all the teams in the playoffs last year the Orioles had the lowest DIFF but consider the World Champion Giants were +69. The Giants dispatched the Reds +81 and then the Cardinals +117 and then the Tigers +56 who were next lowest to the Orioles.
What does it all mean? It means stats are neat. They're like art. People look at them with different interpretations but in baseball they cannot be relied upon to predict anything with certainty. Here are the playoff teams by run differential in 2012
Nats +137
Yankees +136
Cards +117
Texas +101
Braves +100
A's +99
Reds +81
Giants +69
Tigers +56
Orioles +7
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
News and Notes...Do's and Don'ts
News: We're 19-21 and 3.5 back of the Bravo's. Dom Brown is tied for the team lead in HR's with 7. Chase also has 7 Ryan is sitting at 6. The BP was flat out nasty last night. DeFratus was throwing some cheese and his sawing off Reynolds I believe was better than a K in that situation.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
Notes: Our two best prospects arguably are Jesse Biddle who is second in the Eastern League in WHIP at .93 and Maikel Franco as a 20 year old in High A ball is among the league leaders in multiple power categories. Both have the look and feel of above average MLB ball players. Home grown talent is the best. If I had to guess Biddle is on the rotation by June 2014. Franco needs a little more seasoning so let's say he could make his way into the line-up by mid to late 2015.
Do be positive: Doc gave up 33 runs all earned in 34.1 IP; Pettibone has given up 11 in 29 IP. Again nothing against Roy he just didn't have it anymore. No illusions here that Jon is going to be anything near what Halladay was but for today and the rest of the year he is going to keep them in games.
Don't be fooled: Cliché to say this team is on a severe angle of the classic slippery slope. Let me also over state the obvious this team is not consistent in any area offensively. Well maybe Howards K rate.
Remember things are never...well we should never say never, things are rarely in September what they were in May. I still believe veteran presence will kick in and Hamels/Lee are too good to allow them to fall to far from contention. I still see 90 wins. Whether that is good enough for the division or a WC remains to be seen.
Monday, May 6, 2013
Who's Next?
So my Doc prediction came to fruition a few weeks late. You generally don't decline that steeply even at Docs age without some type of physical issue. Just my opinion and I could be wrong. Having said that I am not happy about his fate. I've enjoyed watching one of the best right handed pitchers to play the game finish his career as a Phillie.
I'm sure we will always remember that no hitter he threw against the Reds in the playoffs and just the shear competiveness with which he took the hill.
Moving on because baseball as in life waits for no one, who should fill his spot in the rotation? Well you do have Lannan coming back at some point which means Pettibone likely stays provided he continues to hold his own.
Biddle is truly the best pitching prospect we have had in the system since Cole Hamels. Consider Cole pitched his first big league game as a Phillie having only pitch 201 Minor League innings and only one minor league season having pitched more than 100. Cole was 22 when he got the call and he went 132 IP that season with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of near 10.
Cole's change-up was clearly an advanced pitch and Biddle doesn't possess such a pitch. His Curve Ball is above average and his FB command and Velocity are decent. Say more like Lee than Hamels. It is not this regime's MO to bring up a young talent but if you ask me he is the most ready of the bunch.
Adam Morgan on the other hand is the more likely candidate. Not quite the upside as Biddle he is older and already doing well at AAA. The one thing that potentially could mean Ethan Martinis the guy is that when Lannan does come back someone must go back down.
Ethan Martin is that type of pitcher. Martin has electric stuff and if it wasn't for his BB rate he might be in the majors right now. Big League managers don't tolerate walks no matter how good your stuff is. Again the premise is if you know Lannan will force someone back down they may opt for the guy that absolutely needs more work in the minors but has the stuff to compete.
In my mind Morgan and Biddle are ready now. There is only so much you learn in the minors. Randy Wolf is another good example of a pitcher that made his debut at 22 and then went on to have a pretty successful career.
I'm sure we will always remember that no hitter he threw against the Reds in the playoffs and just the shear competiveness with which he took the hill.
Moving on because baseball as in life waits for no one, who should fill his spot in the rotation? Well you do have Lannan coming back at some point which means Pettibone likely stays provided he continues to hold his own.
Biddle is truly the best pitching prospect we have had in the system since Cole Hamels. Consider Cole pitched his first big league game as a Phillie having only pitch 201 Minor League innings and only one minor league season having pitched more than 100. Cole was 22 when he got the call and he went 132 IP that season with a 1.24 WHIP and a K/9 of near 10.
Cole's change-up was clearly an advanced pitch and Biddle doesn't possess such a pitch. His Curve Ball is above average and his FB command and Velocity are decent. Say more like Lee than Hamels. It is not this regime's MO to bring up a young talent but if you ask me he is the most ready of the bunch.
Adam Morgan on the other hand is the more likely candidate. Not quite the upside as Biddle he is older and already doing well at AAA. The one thing that potentially could mean Ethan Martinis the guy is that when Lannan does come back someone must go back down.
Ethan Martin is that type of pitcher. Martin has electric stuff and if it wasn't for his BB rate he might be in the majors right now. Big League managers don't tolerate walks no matter how good your stuff is. Again the premise is if you know Lannan will force someone back down they may opt for the guy that absolutely needs more work in the minors but has the stuff to compete.
In my mind Morgan and Biddle are ready now. There is only so much you learn in the minors. Randy Wolf is another good example of a pitcher that made his debut at 22 and then went on to have a pretty successful career.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
The Full Squad
Last night marked the first night Charlie had the entire line-up he planned on in the start of Spring Training. Delmon Young activated from the DL batted 5th and neatly hit a HR in his first AB as a Phillie.
Unfortunately Halladay got rocked with 2 run bombs before he gave way to Durbin who continued to fuel the Indians Line-up.
Not many positives going on in the Org right now with the exception of say Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco but neither seem to figure in any kind of help for the big club this season. It's once been said that every team is going to win 60 and lose 60 which means its what you do with the remaining 42 Games that defines a season.
I heard Ruben interviewed on the Fanatic yesterday. I'll paraphrase his answer to the question who's fault is it when these young bullpen arms don't come up and get the job done "well I'll say it's the players fault" Ruben said. There is some truth to that for sure. After all these kids worked their whole lives to reach this level, when they get a shot they have to get the job done.
The GM, the Manager, the pitching coach, the minor league instructors cannot go out and throw the ball for them!
Unfortunately Halladay got rocked with 2 run bombs before he gave way to Durbin who continued to fuel the Indians Line-up.
Not many positives going on in the Org right now with the exception of say Jesse Biddle and Maikel Franco but neither seem to figure in any kind of help for the big club this season. It's once been said that every team is going to win 60 and lose 60 which means its what you do with the remaining 42 Games that defines a season.
I heard Ruben interviewed on the Fanatic yesterday. I'll paraphrase his answer to the question who's fault is it when these young bullpen arms don't come up and get the job done "well I'll say it's the players fault" Ruben said. There is some truth to that for sure. After all these kids worked their whole lives to reach this level, when they get a shot they have to get the job done.
The GM, the Manager, the pitching coach, the minor league instructors cannot go out and throw the ball for them!
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