Monday, September 22, 2014

What Next?

The Phillies currently sit with the 8th worst record in the MLB so a protected pick should be in order for June 2015 to stack on top of Crawford and Nola, both of which appear to be on track for a 2016 debut.

The Phillies aging line-up only managed a 28th ranked OPS and no Phillie appeared in the top 50 in OPS that is clearly problem number one.  When you look at the teams going to playoffs this is one offensive stat that clearly ties to wins and can sometimes offset good but not great starting pitching.  Problem is nothing in FA falls within clear cut upgrades.  The flip side is there are some potential upgrades but those come with some age or injury history.  You could look to 2015 and say Ruf/Howard Platoon at 1B and sign a Morse or Cuddyer to platoon with Brown in LF.  You could say they would be best served to platoon right field as well.  It appeared to be Byrd at 36 wore down fast.  A Byrd/Brown platoon would be something to consider at the risk of some pretty bad defense from Brown.

One might consider Melky Cabrera or Nelson Cruz for high AAV 3 year deals.  The trade market would be tough to navigate because we have no depth any where in the system.  I just don't believe you can get enough of a return for Hamels.  Prospects being the risk that they are and at the same time the commodity that they are seems an unlikely scenario.  In my mind you would need to be pretty certain you return a Hamels and an Utley that are no more than a year from being ready to play in the majors plus some.

The more resolute option might be on FA pitching.  Scherzer and Lester will command big dollars.  Lester will be attractive because he will come without compensation.  You could play in the James Shields and Ervin Santana space or Liriano and Kazmir tiers.  Even Jason Hammel or Brandon McCarthy would be upgrades.  The Phillies ranked 20th in WHIP and any of those guys would likely help them improve on that stat when combined with the emergence of guys like Diekman and Giles in the BP.

Creativity and maybe some unlikely trade partners might pave the way to a WC in 2015.  In summation they need to hunt OPS in the corners and possibly in CF while they wait for Franco, Crawford and Nola.  A little luck with Biddle wouldn't hurt or maybe a surprise from the farm by way of a Kelly Dugan or Cam Perkins.

I would like to see them move Rollins and Howard this off season as the genesis to a true rebuild.