Baseball's Bad Disease

A few months back I had a conversation with an individual in the game at a very high level at a cocktail party.  The topic of conversation was whether or not baseball is being over run with over thought and analysis.

What was interesting and apparent was the fear said person had of the sabermetric wave.  It appears traditionalists in the game are being punched and pushed into the underground like lepers.  These guys and there are many fear speaking out against defensive shifts and the overly scientific approach to preparing for and playing a 162 game season.

This person said as he was coming up through the minors all the guys had natural ability.  The separator for some was a good coach maybe a guy that could spot and pick up on how pitchers tipped their pitches.  For others the players themselves the great ones anyway would document their own at bats against certain pitchers.  Some had almost photographic memories and the ability to store knowledge in their heads.  That type of data acquisition is being vilified as "that is not the way we do it here" type of rhetoric being spouted more often than not by some math junkie the team is employing.

Baseball was first penned the National Past Time in articles dating back to 1856.  Bill James became a name in 1977, Michael Lewis published Moneyball in 2003.  Brad Pitt made Billy Beane famous and Jonah Hill as Paul DePodesta the nerdy Ivy Leaguer.  Unfortunate because Paul's background is anything but nerdy.  The movie itself brought a light to sabermetrics in 2011.

Some of it embellished of course but the theory definitely challenged the purist brand of baseball.  Now one must acknowledge the purist brand of baseball has always been challenged.  The game started off being played with no gloves, bare hands and they used to throw the ball at the base runner to record an out.  Over time the rules were tweaked, bats got better, balls were livelier and gloves evolved to what we have today.

Arguments could be made to say those technologies in equipment did not effect the intrinsic value of the game.  Pitchers and fielders still had to throw and catch.  Hitters still had to hit.  Statistics would recognize batting average and suggest if a hitter maintained a batting average of 300 or more he was likely considered an above average player and those that could put the ball over the outfield wall 50 or more times had their own unique value to their teams.

Modern analytics goal is to shine a light on deeper values to the sport.  On base percentage being the most advanced stat by the term.  Obviously you can't score a run without someone on base unless you hit nothing but home runs.  Damage stats were next to evolve with slugging percentage and OPS both measures of a hitters ability to hit the ball for more than just a single base.  And finally we have weighted runs created or WRC which is a fancy term to evaluate a multi dimensional player like Mike Trout for his ability to not only hit for power but to turn singles into doubles with his speed and steal bases.

Technology has since in the year 2014 made it possible to have information overload.  Not just in baseball but our everyday lives.  Let's not go there but rather ask ourselves when is it to much and when does it become detrimental to the natural abilities of a player to play the game?

Have you ever heard a player say or a coach say see the ball hit the ball?  I heard Albert Pujols last night on what special preparation he was going to do for Masahiro Tanaka. Albert said "I am going to try and see the ball and hit the ball".  It almost seemed the interviewer wanted him to say he was going to watch 14 hours of video and look at the count propensities to isolate the likelihood of seeing a FB vs the splitter.

Can it really be that simple see the ball hit the ball?  I guess it depends on who you ask.  The new rage is defensive shifts.  The minds will say we have all of this spray chart data so you should play your infielders in these spots on this hitter.  Now this isn't knew it was most popular when Ted Williams came to bat in the 40's and first known in the 20's against Cy Williams.

The difference today is the media that covers baseball has bought in.  They believe in the story of analytics which then drives the monkey see, monkey do attitudes of the league.  Now just about every team has a Harvard guy or a Yale guy studying trends and O swing percentages and running video rooms telling hitters to expect this pitch on this count and so on.

Granted the game has always scouted to try to gain an edge so the only thing that has really changed is the technology to compile and the technology to deliver that info.  The disease is the over analysis and the removal of freedom to chose.  If a manager says "I went on my gut instinct" he will be chastised for days on end because he didn't acknowledge the data.

If a general manager were to say "hey I don't want my 4 hole hitter to walk I want him to drive the ball and be aggressive because he can score a run with one swing of the bat" he might be burned at the stake or at the very least humiliated for such a philosophy.  The disease is the ability to be human.  Instead you must be a robot and a slave to the data or else.

"Well how did we get here" David Byrne once sang and "same as it ever was", was the refrain.  Humans must have this undying devotion to invent and then re-invent everything on earth.  The disease is us and our thirst for change for the sake of change.

Like rats in a lab we are conditioned to want more than we need.  We no longer have the sensation to relax and enjoy.

April Over Reactions

It happens every season pundits and fans a like will over react to what they see in April both positively and negatively depending on what ball park you are sitting in.  I like to state every season that rarely things in September are as they were in April.

Without stating to much of the obvious (Injuries, Warmer Weather acclimation and so on) a 162 games season will have periods of inequity.

Having said that one cannot completely ignore warning signs in things unlikely to get better with time.  For instance Papelbon only hitting 91 on the radar gun is not a good sign.  From most outsiders meaning not including Sandberg and the players themselves expectations for this club realistically speaking are low.  Most have probably drawn the conclusion that the Nationals will win the division and the Braves will be right there.

Amaro himself on one hand would be pleasantly surprised if these veterans rose above the nay sayers and made a run at something.  On the other hand I'm sure he is thinking towards the minors and this years 7th pick overall.  He is or probably already has had discussions about the trade value in players like Lee, Ruiz, Byrd and possibly Utley.

In the end Track Record generally rules the season.  Barring catastrophic injuries to key players throughout the league.  As for the Phillies and their potential to grab a WC well that depends on how quickly they can get their defense sured up as well as make a decision on Papelbon.

Their margin for error is very thin but I still maintain with Lee Hamels and Burnett going out there every 5th day at least through July it can be done.