Let's start the conversation with Japanese phenom Tanaka. Again no compensation is tied to Tanaka so that means teams at risk of losing a 1st round pick for signing one of the lesser names will be all in on this guy and who ever comes out the winner will likely be out on some of these other names.
Garza-The prize of the off season because there is no compensation tied to him. Garza will be the litmus test for how much money is flooding into baseball. Why? Because there are definite red flags about the elbow and none about his competiveness. When he is right he is all day long a 5/$100. The Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Rangers will all be in the mix for his services.
Nolasco-Look for the Mets to make a major move to land his services with Matt Harvey being gone they need a guy that eats up innings and is close to being a front line starter at least something of a solid #3. Their pick is protected so they can afford to into the Anabel Sanchez area for Nolasco. 4/$72 seems right to me with an option to take it up to $90.
Santana-Is not a 5/$100 despite what he or his camp thinks. Honestly they don't really think that its classic negotiating tact to publicly put out an outrageous number. Look for the Mets to jump in here is they don't land their first choice which is Nolasco.It still will be obscene I'm thinking 4/$64.
Ubaldo-Not very interesting although once upon a time in Colorado he was. A return to the Rocky Mountains is not out of the question. I think teams will be reluctant to go more than 3/$42 and that might be tough to come by with compensation needed to be given up. Look at teams with a protected pick as possible options.
Rodney-Fernando should call the cops because the Rays picked his pocket big time for the last two years. No such luck this year he gets a big raise from Texas. 3/$27
Joe Nathan-Everyone says Tigers but I think the Tigers are looking for a guy they can give multi years to so that the position is sure for the next few years. I actually think Nathan lands with the Yankees on a 1/$9 with a vesting option that would take it up to $18.
Grant Balfour-How about the Tigers on a 2/$15
AJ Burnett-He's picky about where he wants to be. The Pirates say publicly they want him back but I don't believe they do. Definition of mercurial is this guy. I won't believe he retires until I see it. So while I have no idea where he will play I do see him playing on a 1/$15 deal.
Kuroda-I see no reason why he would leave NY. Possible the Dodgers bring him back but he gets a multi year deal this time 3/$51
Tim Timmy Hudson-This guy loves Atlanta, is 38 and coming off a severe ankle injury. I say he stays with Atlanta on a 1 Year Incentive laden deal 1/$8.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
GM Meetings Begin
The GM meetings begin tonight so let's take the opportunity to speculate the FA market from the top down Position players:
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
Cano-The Yankee's resign him because the only other clubs that could afford to do so won't go that high. I'm guessing 10yr/$285
Ellsbury-Where? Possibilities are numerous. The Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, Mets are my prediction. The Deal 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
Choo-The where for Choo's services is difficult to predict but I would again expect a team with a protected pick to offer the most money. Met's, Mariners would fit the bill and same as Ellsbury 7yr/$150 will be the floor.
McCann-Logic would say an AL team moves on McCann so he can DH and stay fresh. Tigers, BoSox, Rangers and possibly the White Sox. 6yr/$80Mil.
Beltran-The suitors will be many but Carlos will limit the field to a team he believes is going to win a WS in the next 3 years. Yankees, Boston and Philly will be in the mix. I'm sure he would like to stay with the Cardinals but Oscar Taveras might prevent that from happening. 3yr/$40.
Granderson-Yankees. He is perfectly suited for that band box. 3yr/$45 sounds about right.
Napoli-No way Boston let's him get away but a team or two will drive up the price. They will work out the health clauses and get him a 5yr/$100 deal.
Cruz-Nelly is another guy perfectly suited to remain with his club. The Rangers park fits him but a team thinking they need right handed pop could step in and over pay, especially a team that has a protected pick. Phillies, White Sox, Rangers 4yr/$48
Hart-Corey did not play at all in 2013. Micro Fracture surgery on the knee is a nasty injury for a guy his size. His OF days are numbered which means he would be limited to a 1B role and DH. Brewers have the edge because it is where he wants to stay. 1yr/$4 with a ton of incentives and a vesting option. Also watch the Rays they love buy low opportunities.
Ruiz-I didn't see any scenario where the Phillies didn't get a deal done with Chooch to remain in pin stripes for at least 2 more years possibly even 3. However the Rockies don't like Rosario behind the plate and now that Helton is gone they have the chance to improve their pitching staff and their catching defense in one fell swoop. Still possible the Phils step in and match whatever offer he receives 3yr/$36.
Perralta-Market is going to be small. Johnny is a great RH handed hitter but lacks a position. SS is no more and the LF experiment would be exposed in long durations. Let's go Rangers as the everyday DH and let's go 2yr/$24
Byrd-Marlon had a great year and really excelled with the Pirates down the stretch. At age 36 he still moves pretty well, well enough to play a corner OF spot. I like him to stay with the Pirates on a 2yr/$16 deal and if the Pirates don't make that offer the Rays might step in to land his services.
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